This portfolio is a US stock sugar rush hiding behind three Vanguard logos and one momentum bet
Report created on Jun 19, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 56.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 20.00% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 16.00% -
VW Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VWO - US9220428588 8.00%
Structurally this portfolio is “US total market wearing a momentum hat and a thin layer of foreign garnish.” Over half the money just hugs the broad US market, then 20% doubles down on the spiciest S&P 500 names, and the rest sprinkles developed and emerging ex-US on top so it looks diversified in a brochure. It’s basically one big equity bet repeated four slightly different ways. That kind of setup can work, but it’s like owning three versions of the same car and calling it a fleet. The portfolio looks streamlined, but under the hood it’s mostly one engine: growthy global equities with a giant US heartbeat.
Growth
Historically, this thing has ripped: turning $1,000 into $4,371 with a 17.82% CAGR is “did someone cheat?” territory. Beating the US market by a smidge and the global market by almost 3% a year is impressive, but it came with a face-punch drawdown of about -34% in early 2020. CAGR — compound annual growth rate — is the average speed of the journey, not how smooth the ride felt. And 39 days making up 90% of returns screams “you had to be there.” Past data is basically yesterday’s weather: nice to brag about, useless as a guarantee.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection politely reminds that history doesn’t hand out repeat tickets. A simulation like this runs the portfolio through 1,000 alternate futures and averages the chaos. Median outcome of $2,839 from $1,000 over 15 years is a lot less glamorous than the backward-looking rocket ship. A 5–95% range from $1,068 to $7,774 says “anywhere from mildly disappointing to champagne.” The assumed 8.24% annualized across simulations is respectable but far from the backward 17–18% fantasy. In other words, the time machine forward is way less generous than the rearview mirror.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class “diversification” here is easy to explain: there isn’t any. It’s 100% stocks, no chaser. That’s like building a diet around nothing but espresso — very efficient at keeping you awake, not great when things go sideways. Being all-equity isn’t automatically wrong, but calling this “Growth Investors” with a 5/7 risk score while having zero ballast from bonds, cash, or anything remotely defensive is pretty on the nose. When the stock market parties, this rides the limo. When it crashes, this is the one forgetting it doesn’t have a helmet.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Financials 13%
- Industrials 12%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, the portfolio clearly believes technology is both the present and the afterlife: 34% in tech is a serious tilt. Add in the telecom and consumer-discretionary exposure and it’s heavily wired into the “innovation and eyeballs” economy. Staples, utilities, and real estate are basically background extras. Compared with broad indexes, this leans harder into growthy, cyclical parts of the market that shine in good times and get drop-kicked when sentiment turns. It’s less “balanced economy” and more “if the future keeps looking like the last five years, we’re golden.” That’s a brave assumption.
Regions
- North America 78%
- Europe Developed 8%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Asia Emerging 4%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is a proud homebody: 78% North America is basically “USA and some guests.” Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world show up just enough to be mentioned in a slide deck, not enough to move the needle. This is classic home bias dressed up with a couple of international ETFs so it doesn’t feel too obvious. Given that a huge chunk of global economic activity happens outside North America, this is like eating at the same restaurant every night because it’s close, while insisting you’re “into world cuisine” because you once tried sushi.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 42%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
Market cap exposure screams “index hugger with a small adventurous streak.” With 42% in mega-cap and 35% in large-cap, the portfolio is basically glued to the giants everyone already owns. Mid-caps at 17% and small plus micro at 5% combined are the token “we’re diversified, see?” portion. This isn’t a bad thing in itself, but it means performance is heavily driven by whatever the mega-stars are doing. If the market’s top names sneeze, this portfolio catches the flu. The illusion of owning thousands of stocks hides the reality that a dozen titans are steering the ship.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 3.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.58%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.02%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 26.34%
The look-through holdings confirm the obvious: this portfolio is worshiping the usual megacap pantheon. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (twice!), Amazon, Meta, TSMC — it’s basically the Magnificent Whatever-Number-We’re-On plus some friends. And because the momentum ETF and total-market fund both love these names, the exposure is layered, not neatly compartmentalized. Overlap looks modest only because we’re seeing just ETF top-10s; the real duplication is likely worse. So on paper you own four funds; in practice you’ve just put multiple megaphones in front of the same handful of companies.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing is almost suspiciously neutral. Value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility — everything hovers around 50%, i.e., market-like. That’s hilarious given there’s a literal momentum ETF in here, yet the overall factor exposure shrugs and says “I’m just the market, man.” Factor exposure is basically the ingredient label that explains why a portfolio behaves the way it does; here, the label is boringly average. Either it’s an accidental masterclass in factor balance or a lucky mess that ended up bland. For all the spicy holdings, the hidden tilts are surprisingly tame.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 56.00% 57.3% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.5% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 16.00% 14.1% -
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 8.00% 7.1%
Risk contribution shows who’s really driving the drama, and surprise: it’s the big boring-looking core. The US total-market ETF is 56% of the weight and 57% of the risk, meaning it’s doing exactly what it says on the tin: carrying the whole show. The momentum slice at 20% weight contributes over 21% of risk — a bit of extra chaos per dollar, as expected. The developed and emerging ex-US funds actually under-contribute to risk relative to their weights. Top three positions giving 93% of total risk makes this feel less like four funds and more like one core bet with a couple of sidecars.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio actually behaves like it knows what it’s doing, which is a bit rude to the roast. The current mix sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning for this particular collection of funds, the risk/return trade-off is… not dumb. The Sharpe ratio — a score of return per unit of volatility — is 0.74, not as juicy as the max-Sharpe version (1.06) but still coherent. Best part: the frontier is built only from these existing holdings, so the math says the chaos you’ve chosen is at least internally consistent.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.60%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.32%
Dividend yield at 1.32% is firmly in the “don’t quit your day job” category. The yieldier bit comes from developed and emerging markets, while the momentum fund barely bothers, and the US total market is more growth than paycheck. This is not a portfolio that pretends to be an income machine; it’s banking on capital appreciation with some pocket change along the way. Relying heavily on such a low yield would be like expecting your coffee shop loyalty card to fund your rent — technically cash flow, practically a rounding error.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are where this portfolio accidentally flexes. A total TER of 0.06% is almost offensively low — like you tripped and fell into the cheap aisle and just stayed there. The priciest offender is the momentum ETF at 0.13%, which is still budget compared with most “smart beta” stuff, and the Vanguard crew are practically free by industry standards. It’s hard to roast fees this low; the only jab is that you’re paying basically nothing for what is, structurally, the financial equivalent of a slightly jazzed-up US index. Still, if you’re going to be basic, at least be cheap about it.
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