A value tilted yield chasing portfolio pretending it is a plain vanilla S&P 500 clone
Report created on Mar 14, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 40.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
VY Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares
VYMI - US9219467944 20.00%
This thing looks “simple” at first glance, but under the hood it’s a nerdy factor experiment in disguise. Forty percent S&P 500 is the comfort blanket, then you slam in 40% small cap value plus 20% high-dividend internationals. That’s not broad vanilla; that’s a very specific bet wearing an index mask. Relative to a plain global stock benchmark, this is way more tilted to cheap, small, and yieldy stuff. If that’s intentional, fine. If not, it’s like seasoning your food with chili powder thinking it’s salt. Step one: decide if you actually want these tilts or just thought “four ETFs = diversified.”
Growth
Historic CAGR of 15.23% with a max drawdown of about -39% says: performance has been great, but not free. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is basically your “average speed” over a bumpy road; max drawdown is how deep the worst pothole was. You’ve clearly ridden a strong equity wave, likely helped by the S&P 500 plus some factor tailwinds. But nearly -40% at the worst point means this hurts in real bear markets. Also, past data is like last season’s weather: useful vibe, terrible crystal ball. Treat this track record as “this setup can rip, but it can also punch you in the face.”
Projection
The Monte Carlo projections are wildly optimistic on the median, but the tails are where the truth lives. Monte Carlo is basically running thousands of imaginary futures using historical-style randomness to see possible outcomes. Median result around +486% after inflation looks dreamy, but the 5th percentile at roughly -24.5% tells you bad scenarios are still very much alive. Also, 17% annualized in simulations screams “probably overfitted to a hot recent era.” Future returns could be much lower if valuations, interest rates, or factor cycles shift. Use the simulation as a rough “range of chaos,” not a promise. Plan for the ugly 5% cases, not just the fantasy middle.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. So this is not a “portfolio,” it’s an equity theme park with no brakes. No bonds, no cash buffer, nothing that typically softens the blow in a crash. That’s perfectly fine for someone with a very long horizon and high risk tolerance, but let’s not pretend this is balanced. When trouble hits, everything here is going down together, just at slightly different speeds. If sleeping through a -40% to -50% event sounds miserable, adding a boring stabilizer asset class might matter. If you genuinely don’t care, own the fact this is a full-send growth engine, not a safety-conscious setup.
Sectors
- Financials 21%
- Technology 17%
- Industrials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Energy 8%
- Basic Materials 7%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector allocation is shockingly sensible for something this factor-heavy: financials 21%, tech 17%, industrials 13%, consumer cyclicals 12%, then energy, materials, and the rest. But the value and dividend tilt turns “normal sectors” into “old-economy flavor.” You’re underweight shiny, high-growth glam and overweight stuff that tends to be cheaper, more cyclical, and occasionally boring. That’s great when value and dividends are in fashion and a drag when growth stocks run away again. Sector diversification looks okay on paper, but factor tilts mean the real risk is more “economy-sensitive” and less “innovation-driven.” Decide if you want that identity, or accidentally built it while chasing yield and factor buzzwords.
Regions
- North America 63%
- Europe Developed 16%
- Japan 10%
- Australasia 3%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this screams “America first, others for the dividend seasoning.” Around 63% in North America, 16% Europe, 10% Japan, then tiny scraps elsewhere. That’s not ridiculous, but it’s clearly US-centric with a side of developed international value and yield. Emerging markets are basically an afterthought, so you’re skipping a lot of growth-y but volatile regions. When the US leads, this feels great. If the US underperforms for a decade (it happens), this setup will feel sluggish compared with more globally balanced portfolios. Either consciously accept a US bias — fine for a US-based saver with liabilities in dollars — or widen the global net a bit so it’s not “US plus international leftovers.”
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 29%
- Mid-cap 21%
- Large-cap 21%
- Small-cap 19%
- Micro-cap 10%
Market cap mix is where the personality pops: 29% mega, 21% big, 21% mid, 19% small, 10% micro. That’s a chunky tilt toward the scrappy small and micro names compared with standard indexes. Small and micro caps are like the rowdy kids at the party — high potential, high chaos. They can crush returns in certain cycles and then disappear into a multi-year slump. You’ve basically blended mega-cap stability with a not-so-subtle dose of higher-volatility minnows. That’s fine if the goal is long-term outperformance and you can tolerate ugly drawdowns. If not, you overshot the “spice level” and may want fewer tiny companies swinging your emotions around.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.14%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 2.59%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.16%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.57%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.05%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.82%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 15.37%
The look-through is screaming “closet mega-cap fanboy” despite all the smart-beta posturing. Top underlying exposures are the usual suspects: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Berkshire. That’s textbook S&P 500 top-heavy behavior, just with some extra seasoning from value and small caps around the edges. Coverage is only ~21%, so the overlap is likely understated, meaning big tech probably casts an even bigger shadow. Translation: there’s less originality here than it looks. If the idea was to escape US megacap dominance, this setup barely moved out of the neighborhood. Clarify if you truly want tech titans driving the show, because they clearly are.
Factors
Factor profile is screaming: value 85, size 85, yield 85, plus decent momentum and a bit of low volatility. Factor exposure is just the hidden “style ingredients” — cheap vs expensive, big vs small, high vs low yield, etc. You’ve built a hardcore value–small–income Frankenstein. Leaning this hard into cheap, small, high-yield stocks while largely ignoring quality data is like eating discount buffet food without checking the hygiene rating. This will shine in value comebacks and inflationary regimes, and look awful when growth and quality dominate. If this was deliberate, congrats, you’ve picked a side. If it wasn’t, you’ve basically signed up for a style war you may not realize you’re fighting.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 40.00% 38.4% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 26.3% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 18.1% -
Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.3%
Risk contribution shows who’s actually rocking the boat, not just who looks big on paper. Here the S&P 500 chunk is 40% of weight and ~38% of risk — pretty proportional. The US small cap value sleeve, though, is 20% weight but over 26% of risk, clearly punching above its size. Top three holdings causing ~83% of total risk means this thing is really a three-engine plane, not four. Risk contribution is like checking which kid is actually causing the noise, not who’s tallest. If the extra shakiness from small caps ever starts to feel unnecessary, trimming that sleeve slightly would calm the ride without totally killing the factor flavor.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return efficiency front, this is like a tuned sports car with no traction control: fast, but unforgiving. An efficient portfolio isn’t about magic “high return low risk” fantasies; it’s about getting the best deal for each unit of pain. You’ve cranked up expected returns by going 100% equities and heavily into value, small, and yield — and accepted big drawdowns as the entry price. Relative to a classic diversified mix with some bonds or defensive assets, you’re way off the “smooth ride” frontier but probably better on long-run return potential. If the ride quality matches the stomach lining, great. If not, you traded too much comfort for bragging rights.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 3.00%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.80%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
- Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares 3.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 2.14%
Total yield of about 2.14% is nice, but not life-changing — more “respectable side income” than “cash machine.” The high-dividend international fund at 3.5% and the international small value at 3% are doing the heavy lifting. Yield is a trap if misunderstood: it feels like safety, but high yield often means “market thinks this stuff is risky, slow-growing, or unloved.” You’re clearly leaning toward getting paid something while you wait, which is fine, but don’t overestimate how protective dividends are in a big selloff. Prices can still drop hard while you politely collect income. Use the yield as a perk, not a shield.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares 0.22%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.18%
Cost-wise, you actually behaved like a rational human: total expense ratio around 0.18% is refreshingly sane. The S&P 500 at 0.03% is almost free, and even the Avantis funds, while pricier, are still in “reasonable for factor strategies” territory. TER (total expense ratio) is basically the annual subscription fee to own these ETFs. You’ve avoided the classic trap of paying champagne prices for tap water performance. There’s not a ton to fix here unless you decide you don’t value the factor tilts, in which case you’re paying for a feature you’re not using. As it stands, fees are not the villain in this story — for once.
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