This portfolio is heavily weighted towards the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF, comprising 70% of the total assets, indicating a strong focus on growth-oriented large-cap stocks. The inclusion of Hims & Hers Health Inc as a significant single stock holding (15%) alongside specialized ETFs in healthcare and real estate sectors suggests an attempt at sector-specific diversification. However, the overall diversification is limited, as reflected by a diversification score of 1 out of 5. This concentration in specific sectors and asset classes may increase volatility and risk.
With a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 35.23% and a maximum drawdown of -48%, the portfolio shows a high return potential but with significant risk. The days contributing to 90% of returns being so few indicates that the portfolio's performance is highly volatile, with substantial gains concentrated in brief periods. This pattern underscores the importance of timing in investments but also highlights the potential for sharp declines.
Monte Carlo simulations project a wide range of outcomes, from a 125.8% increase at the 5th percentile to a 5,382.5% increase at the 67th percentile, emphasizing the portfolio's high growth potential. However, the significant spread in potential outcomes also underlines the high risk associated with this portfolio. The high number of simulations with positive returns (982 out of 1,000) suggests optimism but should be tempered with caution due to potential market volatility.
The portfolio's asset allocation leans heavily towards stocks (95%) with a minor allocation in real estate (5%), reflecting a growth-oriented strategy. This composition supports the portfolio's high-risk, high-return profile but lacks diversification across broader asset classes like fixed income or commodities, which could reduce volatility.
Sector allocation is concentrated in technology (37%), consumer defensive (17%), and healthcare (11%), which are sectors often associated with growth but also with higher volatility. The heavy emphasis on technology and healthcare suggests a bet on innovation and an aging global population. However, this concentration increases the portfolio's sensitivity to sector-specific risks.
The portfolio's geographic allocation is entirely focused on North America, lacking exposure to international markets. This concentration in a single region can limit diversification benefits and expose the portfolio to region-specific economic and political risks. Broadening geographic exposure could potentially enhance returns and reduce volatility over the long term.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega (48%) and large (35%) cap stocks, aligning with the portfolio's growth and stability objectives. However, the limited exposure to medium, small, and micro-cap stocks restricts opportunities for higher growth rates that these segments may offer, albeit with increased risk.
The high correlation between the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF and the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares indicates overlapping investments, which may limit diversification benefits. Reducing redundancy by reallocating assets from highly correlated investments to less correlated ones could enhance the portfolio's risk-adjusted returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing the portfolio using the Efficient Frontier could improve the risk-return ratio by adjusting asset allocations. Before optimization, it's crucial to address the high correlation between certain assets to enhance diversification. This process would involve analyzing current holdings to identify and reduce overlaps, thereby potentially improving the portfolio's overall performance.
The portfolio's overall dividend yield of 0.51% is relatively low, consistent with its growth-focused strategy. Investors prioritizing capital appreciation over income might find this acceptable, but those seeking regular income might want to increase exposure to higher-yielding assets.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) of 0.07% is impressively low, which is beneficial for long-term growth by minimizing the drag on returns caused by fees. The low costs are particularly noteworthy given the portfolio's ETF-heavy composition, which often incurs lower fees than actively managed funds.
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