Riding a turbocharged momentum rocket with a lucky gold parachute and barely any real track record
Report created on May 10, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 33.34% -
GL SPDR® Gold Shares
GLD - US78463V1070 33.33% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 33.33%
This portfolio is basically a three-coin flip: one shiny rock ETF and two hyperactive U.S. momentum funds, each at roughly one‑third weight. It’s less “diversified strategy” and more “I like this theme so I bought it three times and added gold.” The structure screams concentration dressed up as sophistication. With only 1.1 years of history, the whole thing is running on very fresh data, which is code for “you have no idea how this behaves in a full market cycle.” The obvious takeaway: this isn’t a broad portfolio, it’s a very specific bet that recent winners keep winning while gold plays emotional support asset.
Growth
On paper, the last 1.1 years look absurdly good: turning $1,000 into $1,562 with a 48% CAGR is lottery-winner territory. The portfolio stomped both U.S. and global markets by about 20 percentage points a year, while max drawdown stayed just under theirs. But with such a short window, this is more highlight reel than reality. One hot streak of momentum can make anything look like genius. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over barely a year is like judging a car’s reliability from one joyride downhill with a tailwind. The portfolio might be exceptional… or just caught a perfect wave.
Projection
The Monte Carlo forecast politely drags this back to Earth: median outcome of $2,419 from $1,000 over 15 years and a 6.63% annualized return. Translation: the simulator looked at your 48% recent sprint, shrugged, and still dialed expectations way down. Monte Carlo basically runs thousands of alternate timelines using past volatility and returns, which here are based on limited data — so it’s extrapolating from a very short mood swing. The wide range ($1,044 to $5,489) just screams “we don’t really know.” The future here is more “roller coaster with vibes” than “mathematically nailed down plan.”
Asset classes
- Stocks 66%
- Other 34%
Asset allocation is basically two knobs: 66% stocks and 34% “other,” which here is gold. That’s not a balanced orchestra; that’s a rock band with a dedicated gong player. The equity slice is pure high-octane factor play, and the “other” slice is one single commodity ETF, not a diversified set of real assets. So risk is still equity-driven; gold just occasionally shows up to be different. With such a tight menu of asset classes, the portfolio is either perfectly dialed into one very specific worldview or blissfully unaware that other levers even exist.
Sectors
- Technology 25%
- Industrials 18%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Energy 3%
- Health Care 2%
- Financials 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, this thing has “chasing what’s hot” written all over it. Tech alone is a chunky 25%, and Industrials at 18% plus Telecom and other cyclical bits tell you the portfolio isn’t exactly hiding in the boring, defensive corners. Momentum ETFs routinely overweight whatever has worked lately, so this sector mix is more mood ring than strategy. Compared to a broad index, this looks like it cranked the “trendy and twitchy” dial up a couple notches. If leadership rotates and different sectors take over, this portfolio won’t gracefully drift — it will lurch.
Regions
- North America 67%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this is a full send on North America at 67%, which basically means “U.S. or don’t bother.” For something labeled “broadly diversified,” this is more like diversified ways to own the same economic region. The rest of the world might as well be an optional DLC pack. When everything is tied to one major market, you’re very exposed to its political, regulatory, and economic mood swings, no matter how many ETFs you’ve stacked. It’s global in marketing, very local in practice, and entirely comfortable ignoring a big chunk of the planet.
Market capitalization
- No data 33%
- Mid-cap 23%
- Large-cap 22%
- Mega-cap 14%
- Small-cap 8%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market cap exposure looks like a buffet where the portfolio sampled everything but still piled the plate with larger names: mega, large, mid, and even a bit of small cap. On the surface, that sounds nicely blended. In reality, this is just what happens when momentum ETFs chase liquid, big names and occasionally dip into the mid/small pool for extra spice. The 33% “no data” bucket is basically “we’re not sure, but it still counts.” Overall, this isn’t a careful tilt toward any size — it’s a side effect of the momentum theme more than a deliberate structure.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.05%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.52%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.81%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TW Twilio Inc 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.37%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
PW Quanta Services Inc 1.27%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
-
MT MasTec Inc 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
-
CI Ciena Corp 1.20%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 17.88%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look-through holdings are a who’s who of recent darlings: NVIDIA, Micron, Broadcom, Alphabet, and a smattering of high-beta names. All of them show up via ETFs, none held directly, which makes the overlap quieter but no less real. NVIDIA at 3.05% and Broadcom at 2.52% may not look huge, but that’s only from partial top-10 data — actual overlap is almost certainly fatter. This is the classic “I own different funds” illusion where underneath it’s the same party guests showing up in slightly different outfits. Hidden concentration is basically a core feature here.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
The factor profile is shouting, not whispering. Momentum at 75% is a hard lean into “buy whatever’s been winning,” while Size at 10% shows a strong avoidance of smaller companies. Value is low, yield is low — this portfolio clearly has no interest in cheap or income-generating stuff. The weird twist: Low Volatility at 65% suggests a tilt toward relatively calmer names, so it’s like putting a helmet on while riding a superbike at 150 mph. These factor tilts are not subtle, and with only 1.1 years of data, it’s entirely possible they’re catching a very particular market phase.
Risk contribution
-
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 33.34% 35.5% -
SPDR® Gold Shares
Weight: 33.33% 32.7% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 33.33% 31.8%
Risk contribution is at least honest: all three holdings are about one-third of the risk, matching their one‑third weights. No sneaky tiny position secretly wrecking the volatility here; everyone’s equally responsible for the mood swings. Gold pulls slightly less risk per unit of weight than the momentum funds, but not by a huge margin, so it’s not acting as a strong stabilizer — more like a mildly calmer friend in a group of adrenaline junkies. When each holding is this chunky, any one of them misbehaving can drag the entire performance line noticeably off course.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is annoyingly competent. The Sharpe ratio sits at 2.09 with the “optimal” and minimum-variance versions only a hair better at ~2.24–2.25. That means, given these three ingredients, the weighting is already basically on the curve — no glaring inefficiency to mock. But remember, that 42% expected return and tidy-looking risk/return profile are built on just 1.1 years of turbo performance. The math says the current combo is efficient for its risk level; reality says the sample size is far too small to treat this as stable physics.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.30%
Dividend yield at 0.30% is almost a rounding error — this portfolio clearly didn’t show up for income. The two equity funds yield basically nothing (0.7% and 0.2%), which is typical for momentum strategies that chase price action, not payouts. Gold of course pays precisely zero; it just sits there glinting. So the return story is 100% capital gains and factor bets, 0% steady paycheck. That’s fine if the goal is riding trends, but let’s not pretend there’s a meaningful “income component” here. This is a growth-chasing machine with a tip jar, not a salary.
Ongoing product costs
- SPDR® Gold Shares 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.18%
Costs are one of the few areas that don’t need a full roast. A blended TER of 0.18% is pretty reasonable, especially for niche-ish momentum and gold products. Gold at 0.40% is a bit rich for something that literally just tracks a metal, but the other ETF at 0.13% drags the average back into “not offensive” territory. Still, paying ongoing fees to hold a rock and chase short-term winners is very on-brand. Fees won’t be the thing that breaks this portfolio; the high-octane strategy will decide that long before expense ratios do.
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