This portfolio shows an unusually high concentration in TMC the metals company Inc, making up nearly half of the portfolio. Such a heavy weighting towards a single stock, especially in the speculative category, introduces significant risk. The inclusion of broad market ETFs like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund and specialized ETFs in Bitcoin and robotics and AI, while contributing to diversification, is overshadowed by the dominant position of TMC.
Historically, this portfolio has shown an impressive CAGR of 76.61%, a figure that significantly outpaces typical market returns. However, this high return comes with a substantial risk, as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -29.45%. The performance has been highly skewed, with 90% of returns coming from just 6 days, indicating extreme volatility and concentration of gains.
Monte Carlo simulations provide a broad range of potential future outcomes, from a 5th percentile of 474.8% to a 67th percentile of 33,854.2%, highlighting the speculative nature of this portfolio. While the high end of projections is extraordinarily optimistic, it's important to remember that such outcomes are based on historical data and do not guarantee future results.
The asset class distribution, with 89% in stocks and 11% in other (presumably the Bitcoin ETF), suggests a high-growth, high-risk strategy. The absence of traditional bonds or cash equivalents for risk mitigation is notable and aligns with the portfolio's speculative profile.
Sectoral allocation is heavily skewed towards Basic Materials, due to the outsized position in TMC, and Technology, reflecting the investments in robotics, AI, and Bitcoin. This concentration increases susceptibility to sector-specific risks and could lead to higher volatility.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards North America (76%), with minimal exposure to other regions. This North American focus, while potentially limiting global diversification benefits, may be aligned with the investor's preference for markets with which they are familiar.
The market capitalization breakdown reveals a tilt towards smaller companies, with 53% in small caps. This skew towards smaller companies can offer higher growth potential but also comes with increased risk and volatility compared to larger, more established firms.
The portfolio contains highly correlated assets, specifically the Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund and the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares. This redundancy does not contribute to diversification and suggests an opportunity to streamline the portfolio for efficiency.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the Efficient Frontier, this portfolio could benefit from reducing overlap in highly correlated assets and possibly rebalancing away from the extreme concentration in TMC. Such adjustments could help in achieving a more optimal risk-return profile without sacrificing the portfolio's growth potential.
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is relatively low at 0.58%, reflecting the growth-oriented nature of the investments. For investors seeking income, this may be a consideration, but for those focused on capital appreciation, the low yield aligns with the portfolio's objectives.
The portfolio's costs are varied, with the highest expense ratio for the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF at 0.68%. The overall Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.08% is reasonable, suggesting that costs are not a significant drag on performance.
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