The portfolio is composed of two main ETF positions: the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares at 70% and the Invesco QQQ Trust at 30%. This allocation leans heavily towards stocks, with a minimal cash position, indicating a strong preference for growth. The portfolio's risk classification is high, with a score of 5 out of 7. However, it lacks diversification, scoring 2 out of 5. The heavy concentration in two ETFs means the portfolio is not well-diversified across different asset classes or sectors.
Historically, the portfolio has shown impressive performance with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.19%. However, it has also experienced significant volatility, with a maximum drawdown of -32.43%. This means that while the portfolio has the potential for high returns, it also comes with substantial risk. The portfolio's performance is concentrated in just 35 days that account for 90% of the returns. This suggests that timing and market conditions play a significant role in the portfolio's success.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, which involves running numerous random scenarios to predict future performance, the portfolio's future looks promising. Based on 1,000 simulations, the annualized return is 17.82%. The 5th percentile projection suggests a conservative return of 128.99%, while the 50th percentile shows a median outcome of 754.11%. The 67th percentile projects an optimistic return of 1,004.95%. The high count of simulations with positive returns (996) indicates a strong likelihood of continued positive performance, albeit with some risk.
The portfolio is heavily weighted in stocks, with nearly 99.82% of assets in equities and just a small fraction in cash. This allocation highlights a focus on growth, but also exposes the portfolio to market volatility. A single asset class concentration means that the portfolio may not be well-prepared for downturns in the stock market. To mitigate risk, consider diversifying by adding other asset classes such as bonds or real estate, which can provide stability and reduce overall portfolio volatility.
Sector allocation shows a significant concentration in technology, which makes up 36.86% of the portfolio. Other sectors like consumer cyclicals, communication services, and healthcare also have notable allocations. While this sector focus has likely contributed to past performance, it also increases risk if these sectors underperform. A more balanced sector allocation can reduce risk and improve stability. Consider diversifying into sectors that are currently underrepresented, such as utilities or real estate, to achieve a more balanced portfolio.
The geographic allocation is overwhelmingly focused on North America, with 98.94% of assets located there. This heavy regional concentration exposes the portfolio to risks specific to the North American market. Diversifying geographically can help mitigate these risks and provide exposure to growth opportunities in other regions. Consider allocating a portion of the portfolio to international markets, including both developed and emerging economies, to benefit from global economic growth and reduce regional risk.
The assets in the portfolio are highly correlated, particularly the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares and the Invesco QQQ Trust. This means they tend to move in the same direction, which can amplify both gains and losses. High correlation can increase portfolio risk, as it reduces the benefits of diversification. To improve diversification, consider including assets with lower correlations to the existing holdings, which can help smooth out returns and reduce overall portfolio volatility.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Portfolio optimization suggests that the current allocation may not be on the efficient frontier, as it consists of highly correlated assets. The efficient frontier represents the set of portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk. To optimize the portfolio, consider reducing asset correlation by incorporating diverse asset classes or sectors. While the current portfolio has performed well historically, a more balanced allocation can enhance risk-adjusted returns and provide greater stability.
The portfolio offers a modest dividend yield of 1.09%, with the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares contributing 1.3% and the Invesco QQQ Trust providing 0.6%. While dividends are not the main focus of this growth-oriented portfolio, they can provide a steady income stream. For investors seeking higher income, consider reallocating a portion of the portfolio to higher-yielding assets. However, be mindful of the trade-off between income and growth potential, as higher yields often come with increased risk.
The portfolio's costs are relatively low, with a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.08%. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares has an expense ratio of 0.03%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust is slightly higher at 0.2%. Low costs are beneficial, as they help maximize net returns over time. Keeping investment costs low is a smart strategy, as high fees can significantly erode returns. Continue to monitor and manage costs effectively to ensure the portfolio remains efficient and cost-effective.
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