Highly concentrated speculative stock portfolio with strong recent gains and very short performance history
Report created on Aug 17, 2026Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 26.76% -
RK Rocket Lab USA Inc.
RKLB - US7731211089 21.18% -
WM Walmart Inc.
WMT - US9311421039 11.51% -
GO Alphabet Inc Class A
GOOGL - US02079K3059 8.93% -
CI Cipher Mining Inc
CIFR - US17253J1060 7.39% -
QQ Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ - US46090E1038 6.60% -
AM Amazon.com Inc
AMZN - US0231351067 6.21% -
AC Archer Aviation Inc
ACHR - US03945R1023 6.17% -
MS Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - US5949181045 3.26% -
RV Robinhood Ventures Fund I
RVI - US7707011000 1.28% -
KU KULR Technology Group Inc
KULR - US50125G3074 0.71%
This portfolio is almost entirely individual US stocks, with a single broad tech-heavy ETF as a small satellite. Two names alone, NVIDIA and Rocket Lab, make up nearly half of the total weight, and the top five positions together dominate the portfolio. That level of concentration means a few companies largely drive overall results, rather than a broad basket. Structurally this looks more like a focused bet on a handful of themes than a diversified core holding. Because the data covers only about five months, it mainly shows how this specific mix handled one short market window, not how it behaves through full cycles like recessions or long bull runs.
Growth
Over roughly five months, $1,000 grew to about $1,175, implying a very high annualized CAGR of 43.74%. CAGR, or compound annual growth rate, is like your average speed on a drive, smoothing out bumps along the way. In this short stretch the portfolio beat both the US and global equity benchmarks on return, but with a max drawdown of about -30%, compared with around -6% for the benchmarks. That drawdown shows how sharply it can fall. Also, 90% of returns came from just three days, which is typical for concentrated, volatile holdings. With such a brief history, these strong numbers are informative but not reliable as a guide to long-term behavior.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically takes the recent return and volatility patterns, scrambles them thousands of times, and builds a range of possible 15‑year outcomes. Here, the median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,800, with a wide possible range from roughly $1,059 to $7,555. The model also estimates a 74.8% chance of ending positive and an average simulated annual return of 8.17%. Because all this is built on only about five months of history, the projections are particularly shaky: they assume the future will resemble this short, unusually strong period. It’s best to treat these numbers as rough what‑if scenarios, not expectations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- No data 1%
Almost 99% of the portfolio sits in stocks, with a tiny slice in “no data” where the asset class isn’t identified. That makes this essentially a pure equity portfolio, with no meaningful exposure to bonds, cash, or other asset types that typically help smooth out ups and downs. Asset class mix matters because different categories react differently to economic shocks and interest‑rate changes. Compared with broad market allocations that usually blend stocks with some lower‑risk assets, this structure leans heavily into growth potential and day‑to‑day swings. Given the short data window, the full range of possible equity‑only volatility hasn’t necessarily shown up yet, even with the sizeable drawdown already visible.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Industrials 28%
- Consumer Staples 12%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Financials 7%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is led by technology at 35%, followed by industrials at 28% and consumer staples at 12%, with the rest in telecom, financials, and consumer discretionary. Relative to broad benchmarks that usually spread more evenly, this mix leans into innovation‑linked and growth‑oriented businesses, especially in tech and advanced industrial themes. Sector concentration matters because shocks often hit sectors in clusters—for example, when funding conditions change or regulation shifts. In this case, several holdings also share similar future‑focused narratives, which can amplify moves in both directions. Over only five months, those sector bets have helped deliver strong gains, but that window is too short to see how they behave in tougher environments.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, 99% of exposure is to North America, making this effectively a single‑region portfolio. Geographic exposure influences how tied you are to one economy, regulatory system, and currency. Many global equity benchmarks now allocate a significant share outside North America, across Europe and Asia, to spread those risks. Here, the heavy US tilt means that local economic cycles, interest‑rate policy, and US market sentiment dominate the outcome. That can work well during US‑led rallies, as seen in this short period, but it also means there’s little buffer if the US market lags other regions. With only a few months of data, the regional concentration risk is more structural than historical at this point.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 60%
- Large-cap 23%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 1%
By market cap, the portfolio is anchored in mega‑caps (60%) and large‑caps (23%), with smaller slices in mid‑caps (14%) and small‑caps (1%). Market capitalization describes company size; mega‑caps tend to be more established and often less volatile per dollar than tiny firms, while mid and small companies can move more sharply. The presence of several mega‑cap household names provides some stability compared with a portfolio made entirely of early‑stage businesses. At the same time, the sizable mid‑cap exposure and a few high‑volatility names generate most of the fireworks. Over the brief historical window, this blend produced strong returns with big swings, but longer cycles could highlight size differences more dramatically.
True holdings
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Part of fund(s):
- Invesco QQQ Trust
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Part of fund(s):
- Invesco QQQ Trust
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Part of fund(s):
- Invesco QQQ Trust
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Part of fund(s):
- Invesco QQQ Trust
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AA Apple Inc. 0.48%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Top 10 total 94.08%
The look‑through view shows that NVIDIA alone totals about 27% of the portfolio when counting both the direct position and its small slice via QQQ. Rocket Lab is another 21%, and Walmart 12%, so three holdings dominate overall exposure. There is also some overlap where Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple appear both directly and via the ETF. Overlap matters because a company held in multiple ways can quietly increase concentration beyond what headline allocations suggest. Note that overlap here may actually be understated because only the ETF’s top‑10 holdings are included. With only five months of data, the key takeaway is structural: a handful of names, especially NVIDIA and Rocket Lab, are central to portfolio behavior.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factor exposure, the standout tilt is “very low” size exposure, meaning a strong lean away from smaller companies and toward larger ones relative to the broad market. Factor exposure is like checking which traits—such as value, quality, or size—your holdings collectively emphasize. A low size score indicates that, overall, the portfolio behaves more like big‑company stocks, even though a few smaller, volatile names are present. Other factors like value, momentum, yield, and low volatility all register as “low,” suggesting a mild tilt away from those traits, while quality is neutral. With such a short history, the practical impact of these factor tilts on performance is hard to judge, but structurally it behaves more like a growth‑tilted large‑cap basket.
Risk contribution
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Rocket Lab USA Inc.
Weight: 21.18% 49.8% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 26.76% 17.5% -
Cipher Mining Inc
Weight: 7.39% 12.2% -
Archer Aviation Inc
Weight: 6.17% 7.1% -
Alphabet Inc Class A
Weight: 8.93% 4.1% - Top 5 risk contribution 90.7%
Risk contribution highlights how much each position drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. Rocket Lab, at about 21% weight, contributes nearly 50% of total risk, more than twice its size would suggest. NVIDIA, despite being the largest holding at 27%, contributes about 17% of risk, while Cipher Mining at 7% weight adds over 12% of risk. In total, the top three holdings account for roughly 79% of portfolio risk. This means the day‑to‑day experience largely depends on a small cluster of names, particularly Rocket Lab and the more speculative holdings. Over just five months, that concentrated risk has shown up as both strong gains and a deep drawdown.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares this portfolio’s current risk/return mix to the best combinations achievable using the same holdings. The Sharpe ratio—return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate—is 1.38 for the current mix, while the optimal portfolio reaches 2.26 with lower volatility. The current portfolio also sits about 20.6 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, meaning it’s taking more risk than needed for the return achieved in this short period. Importantly, this doesn’t suggest changing what is owned, just that different weightings could historically have improved the balance. With only around five months of data, these optimization numbers are especially tentative, but they do highlight that the current allocation is intentionally aggressive.
Dividends
- Alphabet Inc Class A 0.20%
- Microsoft Corporation 0.70%
- NVIDIA Corporation 0.10%
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.40%
- Walmart Inc. 0.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.16%
Dividend yield for the overall portfolio is very low at about 0.16%, even though a few holdings like Walmart and Microsoft pay modest dividends. Dividends are regular cash payments some companies make to shareholders, and over long periods they can meaningfully contribute to total returns. Here, the focus is clearly on capital gains from price movement rather than income. In the short five‑month window, price changes have dominated outcomes, as shown by the large swings and high reported CAGR. Structurally, this means that in the future the portfolio’s growth will likely depend much more on share prices continuing to rise than on steady cash payouts, which can make the ride feel more volatile.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.18%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.01%
Costs are impressively low. The only listed ongoing fee is the Invesco QQQ ETF’s TER of 0.18%, and when you average that across the entire mix (most of which is individual stocks with no fund fees), the total portfolio TER rounds to about 0.01%. TER, or total expense ratio, is the annual fee charged by funds as a percentage of your investment. Lower costs mean less drag on returns over time, especially when compounding over many years. Even though the historical period here is only five months—too short to really see fee effects—the structural cost profile is a clear positive. It’s a concentrated, speculative portfolio, but it is being run very cheaply from a fee perspective.
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