Momentum junkie portfolio with a commodities side quest and a fake sense of diversification
Report created on Jul 3, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 60.00% -
KM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
KMLM - US5007676522 20.00% -
PD Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
PDBC - US73937V1061 20.00%
This portfolio is basically one big bet in a fancy trench coat. Sixty percent sits in a momentum-heavy US equity ETF, with the remaining 40% split between a pricey alt-strategy fund and a commodities product. On paper that might look “balanced,” but in practice it’s one dominant growth engine plus two noisy sidekicks. The so‑called diversification score flatters it; three holdings is more “small band” than “orchestra.” The structure screams “I like momentum, I like commodities, and I’m not worried about subtlety.” The result is a portfolio that can absolutely fly when its chosen themes are in favor, but doesn’t have many backup plans if those engines stall at the same time.
Growth
Historically, this thing has ripped. An $1,000 stake turned into $2,595, with an 18.84% CAGR versus 14.86% for the US market and 12.59% globally. CAGR is basically your average speed over the trip, and this car has been flooring it. Max drawdown at -15.95% was noticeably gentler than broad markets’ mid‑20s drops, which is a pleasant surprise for such a concentrated bet. But 90% of returns came from just 42 days, meaning performance hangs on a handful of “don’t blink” moments. Past data is yesterday’s weather: it shows this portfolio loves risk-on regimes, but says little about how it will behave if momentum gets punched in the mouth.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection takes that juicy history, shakes it up with randomness, and asks “what if markets don’t repeat 2020–2026?” The median 15‑year outcome is only $2,271, a far cry from just rerunning the past and ending somewhere on the moon. The simulated annualized return of 6.22% is basically the model saying, “Calm down, that high backtest might have been a hot streak.” The range is wide: from near‑flat to more than quadrupling. That’s what happens when you mix momentum, commodities, and complexity — the future path is fuzzy. The key message: this portfolio’s forward story is less superhero origin, more coin flip between “pretty good” and “just okay.”
Asset classes
- Stocks 60%
- Other 22%
- No data 18%
Asset-class-wise, it’s 60% stocks, 22% “other,” and a mysterious 18% black box labeled “no data.” The 60% equity piece drives the show; the “other” bucket is where the quanty alt-strategy and commodity futures live, quietly promising diversification while also being weird in their own ways. The missing-data slice is like ingredients on a label that just say “and stuff” — not necessarily bad, but not exactly confidence-inspiring either. This isn’t a true multi-asset mix; it’s an equity core taped to some derivatives- and futures-based toys. The insight: the portfolio’s fate is still mostly tied to how risky assets behave, just with some extra moving parts thrown in.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Industrials 7%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Health Care 4%
- Financials 3%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Energy 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector exposure is basically “Tech and friends.” Technology alone is 33%, more than ten times the exposure of most non-tech sectors here. Everything else — industrials, telecom, health care, financials, staples, energy, and the rest — shows up like background characters with single‑digit lines. That’s classic momentum: pile into what’s been hot, which recently has often meant chipmakers and megacap platforms. Sector diversification looks okay at a glance, but that’s an illusion created by tiny slivers. When tech sneezes, this portfolio will catch a cold whether or not some 2% energy allocation shows up for work. The portfolio is effectively saying, “If tech breaks, we’re all going down together.”
Regions
- North America 60%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this is America all the way down: 60% in North America, and the rest buried in “no data” land. This isn’t a world portfolio; it’s a US momentum bet dressed in a slightly global narrative thanks to commodities and futures. The portfolio is basically ignoring most of the planet’s equity markets, which is convenient when the US is on top and less fun when leadership rotates elsewhere. This home bias is totally on-brand for a momentum strategy built off US indexes, but it does mean that “global diversification” is mostly marketing spin here. The real story: one big economic region, and a bunch of contracts written on its behavior.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 31%
- Mega-cap 23%
- No data 20%
- Mid-cap 6%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market cap, the portfolio hugs the giant end of town: 23% megacap, 31% large‑cap, and only 6% mid-cap, with a chunky 20% hidden behind “no data.” This is the classic “own the winners everyone already knows” posture. There’s very little small or mid-cap flavor to give it a different growth pattern; it’s riding the same juggernauts that dominate headline indexes, just skewed toward the fastest runners. When megacap darlings wobble together, there isn’t much offsetting behavior from smaller names. The upside is liquidity and lower idiosyncratic risk; the downside is being structurally chained to whatever mood the biggest companies in the world wake up with.
True holdings
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IU Invesco Treasurers Series Trust - Invesco Premier U.S. Government Money Portfolio 15.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
-
FG Euro Bund Future June 26 10.85%
Part of fund(s):- KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 6.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.92%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.92%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.71%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.41%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.16%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 54.14%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Look‑through holdings show some hilarious concentration once you peek under the hood. A government money market fund shows up at 15.78% — a weirdly large oasis of ultra‑boring inside a supposed momentum machine. Then you’ve got Euro Bund futures at 10.85% because why not throw sovereign bonds from a different continent into this stew. On the equity side, the usual suspects dominate: Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Alphabet, AMD, etc. Several of these appear more than once across products, meaning hidden overlap. When the same chip names and mega platforms keep popping up, the portfolio is less diversified mosaic and more “greatest hits of the same five companies.”
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposures are screaming one thing: momentum at 76%. Factor exposure is like checking the secret recipe — this one’s covered in hot sauce. Everything else sits around neutral: value, size, quality, yield, low volatility all hover near 50%, meaning no real tilt. So the entire personality is “chase what’s working and hope the party continues.” Leaning heavily into momentum without a strong quality or low‑vol cushion is like driving fast with regular brakes — better hope the road stays dry. In trending, risk-on markets, this profile shines; in sharp reversals or whipsaws, it can go from hero to regret surprisingly quickly.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 60.00% 80.2% -
Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 14.8% -
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
Weight: 20.00% 5.0%
Risk contribution lays out who’s really running the show. The 60% S&P 500 momentum ETF contributes a massive 80.20% of total risk, way above its weight. That’s the portfolio’s main character; everything else is supporting cast. Commodities at 20% weight causing 14.80% of risk are relatively chill, while the alt-strategy ETF contributes only 5% of total risk despite a 20% weight — basically a seatbelt with management fees. Risk contribution is like a backstage pass: it shows that tweaking anything except the main momentum holding barely moves the needle. Stability here lives and dies with one ETF’s behavior, no matter how sophisticated the other allocations look.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio actually behaves itself. The Sharpe ratio — risk-adjusted return, or “how much pain per unit of gain” — is 1.04, with the optimal mix at 1.25 and the minimum-variance option at 1.06. And it’s sitting right on or very near the frontier, meaning that with these exact three holdings, the math can’t squeeze out much more efficiency. That’s grudgingly impressive: the weights are aggressive but not dumb. The catch is that “efficient” doesn’t mean “sensible” — it just means “you’re getting paid reasonably for the risk you chose.” If the inputs change or momentum fades, the efficient frontier doesn’t protect against regret.
Dividends
- KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF 4.80%
- Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF 3.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 2.02%
The total yield at 2.02% is basically pocket money for a portfolio this punchy. Most of that income comes from the alt-strategy ETF at 4.8% and commodities at 3.2%, while the momentum ETF barely contributes with a 0.7% yield. So the cash flow angle is almost accidental — a side effect of holding weird stuff, not a deliberate income design. This is a capital-growth-and-volatility story with some dividends sprinkled on top, not an income workhorse. When returns slow, that 2% won’t feel like much of a consolation prize; it’s enough to notice on a statement, but not enough to define the character of the portfolio.
Ongoing product costs
- KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF 0.90%
- Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF 0.59%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.38%
Costs are a mixed bag. Headline TER at 0.38% looks harmless at first glance, but that’s only because the big momentum ETF is cheap at 0.13%. The alt-strategy fund clocks in at 0.90% and the commodity fund at 0.59%, which is “fancy dinner” pricing. It’s like paying a cover charge to get into the diversification club and then realizing most of your night still happens in the main room. Over time, those higher fees quietly skim from the sidekicks that aren’t even doing most of the heavy lifting. The good news: at least the main driver isn’t also gouging on costs.
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