High octane US stock portfolio with strong recent gains and narrow momentum driven focus
Report created on May 22, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 50.00% -
SG SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
SGRT 50.00%
This portfolio is built from just two US equity ETFs, each at 50%, so it is simple but very concentrated. Both funds focus on fast‑growing or high‑momentum companies, which lines up with the “Aggressive” risk label and low diversification score. With 100% in stocks and no bonds or cash buffers, returns depend almost entirely on how US equities behave. That can lead to strong upside in good periods but sharper swings when conditions change. Because the youngest holding only has about nine months of history, all the portfolio metrics describe a very short, favorable window rather than a full market cycle.
Growth
Over roughly nine months, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $1,600, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) near 87%. CAGR is like the average speed of a road trip, smoothing out the daily bumps. This far outpaced both the US and global equity benchmarks, which were in the mid‑20% range. The worst peak‑to‑trough drop was about -12.6%, steeper than the benchmarks but relatively modest given the aggressive style. Just 13 trading days generated 90% of returns, showing performance was packed into a few big up days. With such a short, strong stretch, these numbers are impressive but not a reliable guide to long‑term behavior.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the short return history to simulate 1,000 possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment. It mixes random “what if” scenarios based on past volatility and return, producing a range rather than a single forecast. The median outcome lands around $2,758, with most simulations between about $1,844 and $4,204, and an overall average annual return of roughly 8%. About three‑quarters of paths end positive. However, because the input data only covers about nine months of unusually strong performance, the model may be over‑optimistic. Monte Carlo is a useful illustration of risk and variability, but not a prediction, especially with limited history.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset‑class exposure is straightforward: 100% of the portfolio is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternatives. That means the portfolio’s ups and downs are tightly tied to equity markets, with no built‑in stabilizers from fixed income. In more diversified mixes, bonds can act like shock absorbers when stocks struggle. Here, the aggressive risk score (6/7) aligns with the pure‑equity design. Over longer horizons, stock‑only portfolios can have higher growth potential but usually come with deeper drawdowns. With only about nine months of data, the current drawdown experience may understate what a full stock allocation can feel like across a complete cycle.
Sectors
- Technology 39%
- Industrials 27%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Basic Materials 10%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Financials 1%
Sector‑wise, this portfolio leans heavily into economically sensitive areas. Technology makes up about 39%, with Industrials around 27% and Telecommunications 11%, while more defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Financials are barely represented. Compared with broad equity benchmarks, this is meaningfully more concentrated in cyclical growth segments and lighter on areas that often hold up better in downturns. When growth themes are in favor, this kind of tilt can boost returns, which matches the strong recent performance. But sector tilts can also amplify volatility, especially if rates rise or market leadership rotates. Again, the nine‑month window may not show how these sectors behave in a prolonged downturn.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% in North America, so its fortunes are tied entirely to one region’s economy, policy, and currency. Many global benchmarks spread exposure across the US, Europe, and Asia, which can help when different regions move out of sync. Here, the benefit is clarity: performance is easy to connect to US‑centric news, earnings, and interest rate changes. The trade‑off is that there’s no diversification if US markets lag other regions. Over nine months where US equities have done well, this concentration has been a tailwind, but it also means the portfolio will fully participate if the US experiences a weaker stretch.
Market capitalization
- Mid-cap 44%
- Small-cap 19%
- Large-cap 18%
- Mega-cap 16%
- Micro-cap 2%
Market capitalization exposure is tilted away from the very largest companies. Mid‑caps are the biggest slice at 44%, with small‑caps at 19%, while mega‑caps and large‑caps together make up about 34%, and micro‑caps sit at 2%. Compared with broad indices that are dominated by mega‑ and large‑caps, this gives more weight to mid‑size and smaller firms. These companies can grow faster but often have bumpier price paths and can be more sensitive to economic shifts. Over the recent period, this structure has supported strong returns. Historically, though, smaller‑company performance tends to come in bursts, and a nine‑month sample is too short to show their full risk/return pattern.
True holdings
-
VR Vertiv Holdings Co 4.99%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 4.70%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 4.38%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 4.38%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
CI Ciena Corp 4.29%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
FI Comfort Systems USA Inc 4.00%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
LI Lumentum Holdings Inc 3.80%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
WD Western Digital Corporation 2.95%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.58%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
-
NW Northwest Pipe Company 2.25%
Part of fund(s):- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
- Top 10 total 38.31%
Looking through the ETFs’ top‑10 holdings, a handful of names like Vertiv, Micron, Alphabet, Ciena, and Comfort Systems stand out, each around 2–5% of total portfolio exposure. Because both ETFs tap into similar themes, some underlying companies may appear in both funds, creating hidden concentration. The reported overlap may be understated since only top‑10 positions are captured and about 48% of the portfolio lies beyond that. This means that, despite holding two funds, the economic exposure is closer to a focused basket of high‑growth US stocks. That setup helps explain the recent strong gains but can also concentrate risk in a relatively narrow group of companies.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a clear profile. Factor investing looks at traits like value, size, or momentum that help explain why some stocks behave differently from others. This portfolio has high momentum exposure at about 75%, meaning it leans toward stocks that have recently performed well. It also shows a very low size factor score (18%), which here means a tilt away from the smallest‑company “size factor” as defined in the model, not necessarily an absence of smaller firms by market cap. Value and yield exposures are low, so the portfolio favors price momentum over cheap valuations or high dividends. Momentum strategies can shine in strong, trending markets, as seen in the short history, but they can be hit hard when trends abruptly reverse.
Risk contribution
-
SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 57.5% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 50.00% 42.5%
Risk contribution measures how much each holding adds to the portfolio’s overall volatility, which can differ from its weight. Here, the SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF is 50% of the portfolio but contributes about 57% of the total risk, while the MarketDesk Momentum ETF, also 50% by weight, contributes roughly 43%. This tells us that SMART Earnings Growth 30 has been somewhat more volatile, or less offset by the other ETF, over the nine‑month window. Overall, with only two holdings, all risk is concentrated between them, so position‑level diversification is limited. In more complex portfolios, risk contribution can look very different from simple weights; here, it mostly confirms the concentrated structure.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return optimization analysis plots the current mix against an “efficient frontier,” which shows the best achievable return for each risk level using only these two ETFs in different weights. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of about 2.21, while the optimal mix reaches roughly 2.32 with slightly higher return and slightly higher risk. The minimum‑variance mix sits at lower risk with a similar Sharpe. Since the current allocation is on or very close to the efficient frontier, it’s already using these two holdings in a risk‑return‑efficient way. That’s a positive sign structurally. Still, keep in mind this optimization is based on less than a year of unusually strong performance.
Dividends
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF 0.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.15%
The portfolio’s dividend yield is very low, around 0.15% overall, with each ETF yielding 0.1–0.2%. Dividends are cash payments companies make to shareholders, and over long periods they can be a meaningful part of total return. Here, the return profile is clearly focused on price appreciation rather than income. That lines up with the growth and momentum focus: companies reinvesting earnings into expansion often pay smaller dividends. In the recent nine‑month window, capital gains have been the main driver of results. If market conditions shift and price growth slows, the limited income stream means there’s less of a steady return component to offset price swings.
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