This portfolio is highly concentrated, with 80% allocated to a Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and 20% to a Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF. Both funds are equity-based, leading to a 100% stock allocation. This composition reflects a strong bias toward US equities, given the geographic allocation showing 99% in North America. The portfolio's diversification is low, with a significant overlap in holdings between the two ETFs, particularly in sectors like Technology and Financial Services.
Historically, the portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.24%, with a maximum drawdown of -33.50%. The days contributing to 90% of the returns number just 31, highlighting the impact of significant market movements on performance. While past performance is impressive, it's crucial to remember that it doesn't guarantee future results, and the high concentration in specific sectors and geographic areas may introduce volatility.
The Monte Carlo simulation, using 1,000 iterations, suggests a wide range of potential outcomes, from a 5th percentile increase of 105.3% to a 67th percentile increase of 688.4%. While the majority of simulations predict positive returns, the significant spread underscores the portfolio's risk level. These projections, while useful for understanding potential volatility and reward, should be approached with caution as they are based on historical data and cannot predict future market conditions accurately.
The portfolio's asset class allocation is entirely in stocks, with no presence in bonds, real estate, or alternative investments. This singular focus enhances potential for growth but also increases susceptibility to market fluctuations. Diversifying across asset classes can reduce risk by spreading exposure and potentially smoothing out returns over time.
Sector allocation is heavily weighted towards Technology, Financial Services, and Healthcare, making the portfolio particularly sensitive to the performance of these industries. While these sectors have historically driven strong returns, they can also experience significant volatility. Diversification across a broader range of sectors could mitigate sector-specific risks.
Geographic allocation is almost exclusively in North America, with no exposure to developed or emerging markets outside of this region. This concentration enhances exposure to the US economy's performance but limits potential benefits from global diversification, such as reduced volatility and access to growth in other economies.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for Mega and Big cap stocks, which typically offer stability and steady growth. However, the minimal exposure to Small and Micro cap stocks limits opportunities for higher growth, albeit at increased risk levels. Adjusting this allocation could balance the pursuit of growth with risk management.
The high correlation between the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF indicates overlapping holdings, which reduces the diversification benefits. Diversification across uncorrelated assets can lower portfolio volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, suggesting a need to reassess the asset mix.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Before optimization, it's essential to address the portfolio's lack of diversification. The high correlation between its two holdings suggests redundancy, which doesn't contribute to diversification benefits. Exploring assets with lower correlation or adding investments in underrepresented sectors or geographies could enhance the portfolio's risk-return profile.
The dividend yield of the portfolio averages 1.30%, contributing to total returns. While not the primary focus, dividends offer a source of income and potential for reinvestment, enhancing compounding effects. Considering the growth orientation, the current yield is reasonable, balancing income generation with capital appreciation.
The portfolio benefits from low costs, with a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.04%. Low costs are crucial for long-term investment success, as they directly enhance net returns. The Vanguard funds selected are cost-efficient, aligning well with best practices for maximizing investment performance through cost control.
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