A highly concentrated us stock portfolio with strong growth tilt and very low global diversification

Report created on Nov 10, 2024

Risk profile Info

7/7
Speculative
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is made up of five low-cost ETFs, all invested in stocks, with heavy overlap between them. Two broad US funds already cover most large and mid-sized companies, and the added growth and tech funds stack similar holdings on top, creating concentration rather than extra balance. The overall mix lines up with a very aggressive, stock-heavy benchmark but with less internal diversification. This matters because when many holdings behave the same way, portfolio ups and downs get amplified. A cleaner structure using fewer overlapping funds could keep the aggressive profile while making it easier to manage risk, track progress, and tweak exposure over time.

Growth Info

The reported historical CAGR of over 160% and a max drawdown around -34% clearly looks off compared with real-world markets, where long-term annual returns are usually in the single digits. This likely reflects data issues or a very short and unusual sample, not a realistic long-term pattern. Still, the drawdown shows that big drops are possible and consistent with a speculative risk level. It’s useful to treat any backtest or performance snapshot as a rough illustration, not a promise. Focusing instead on how the portfolio behaves in bad markets can help set expectations and confirm whether such swings feel acceptable.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo results here show every simulation ending at -100%, which signals a clear data or model error, not an actual prediction. Monte Carlo is a technique that takes past return and volatility patterns, then runs thousands of “what if” paths to show a range of possible futures. Normally you’d see a spread of outcomes, from poor to great, not total loss. Even when modeled correctly, these simulations depend heavily on historical data and assumptions, so they’re best used as a rough weather forecast. Treat them as a stress-test tool, not a guarantee, and combine them with simple scenario thinking.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All assets here are in stocks, with 100% equity exposure and no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternatives. This is fully aligned with a high-growth, high-risk stance and often outperforms over very long horizons, but it can be emotionally and financially tough during deep market downturns. Compared with a more balanced benchmark that mixes in steadier assets, this structure trades stability for maximum upside potential. For someone whose income, emergency savings, and time horizon can buffer large swings, this may be fine. Others might prefer adding even a small slice of more stable assets to smooth the ride and reduce the urge to bail out at the worst possible time.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    45%
  • Financials
    11%
  • Health Care
    9%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    9%
  • Telecommunications
    9%
  • Industrials
    7%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Energy
    2%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Basic Materials
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector exposure is heavily tilted toward technology at about 45%, with most of the rest in finance, healthcare, consumer names, and communications. This tech concentration is higher than what’s found in broad market benchmarks, which already lean meaningfully toward tech. That tilt can be powerful in strong growth and innovation cycles but may hit harder when rates rise, regulation tightens, or sentiment turns against growth stocks. On the positive side, the portfolio still touches most major sectors, which is a good foundation. Trimming the extra tech-heavy layers and slightly boosting neglected areas could keep a growth flavor while avoiding a single theme dominating results.

Regions Info

  • North America
    100%

Geographically, everything is in North America, specifically the US, with no exposure to international developed or emerging markets. This matches a common “home bias” and has actually been rewarding over the last decade as US markets outperformed many regions. However, relying solely on one economy and currency raises concentration risk if US growth slows, policy shifts, or sector trends change. Global diversification can sometimes soften local shocks and capture growth elsewhere. Keeping a strong US core while gradually adding a modest slice of non-US exposure would create a more rounded global footprint without dramatically changing the portfolio’s overall character or risk level.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    45%
  • Large-cap
    32%
  • Mid-cap
    17%
  • Small-cap
    4%
  • Micro-cap
    1%

The portfolio is dominated by mega and large companies, with moderate mid-cap exposure and only a small slice of small and micro caps. This lines up closely with major US benchmarks and is a solid foundation, since bigger companies tend to be more stable and liquid than tiny ones. The extra growth and tech ETFs nudge the portfolio even further toward the largest, most popular names. That can be great when market leaders are running, but it also means returns are tied heavily to a relatively small group of giant companies. Slightly expanding mid- and smaller-company exposure can improve diversification and potentially capture different growth drivers over time.

Redundant positions Info

  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
    Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    High correlation

Several holdings here move very similarly, especially the large-cap growth, tech, and total market funds, which are highly correlated. Correlation, simply put, measures how often investments go up and down together; when it’s high, they don’t provide much diversification. In a downturn that hits growth or large US stocks, all of these are likely to fall at roughly the same time and magnitude. While the overall US stock bet is clear and consistent, it doesn’t get much benefit from holding multiple overlapping funds. Simplifying to fewer, broader positions can keep the same general exposure while making the portfolio easier to balance and monitor.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On a risk–return basis, this portfolio sits on the very aggressive end, aiming for high returns with high volatility. The Efficient Frontier is a concept that maps combinations of the current assets that offer the best trade-off between risk (ups and downs) and return. Within this set of five ETFs, the main drag is unnecessary overlap rather than high cost. Removing or scaling back the most correlated funds and using broader holdings more efficiently could push the portfolio closer to its own efficient frontier. “Efficient” here simply means getting the most expected return for each unit of risk, not maximizing diversification or minimizing losses.

Dividends Info

  • iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF 2.00%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
  • SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.98%

The overall yield is just under 1%, with one dedicated dividend ETF lifting income slightly above what a pure growth portfolio might pay. Dividends can play two roles: they add a steady cash stream and can soften the psychological blow of market drops by still delivering some return. The current yield suggests that capital gains, not income, are the main engine of returns here, which fits a speculative growth approach. This is perfectly fine for long horizons and accumulation phases. If at some point more regular cash flow becomes a priority, adjusting the balance toward slightly higher-yielding strategies could help without abandoning growth entirely.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF 0.08%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
  • SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF 0.02%
  • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%

The average cost, around 0.04% in total expense ratio (TER), is impressively low and a real strength of this setup. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, and shaving even fractions of a percent can compound into big savings over decades, like paying less “toll” on every mile of your investing journey. These costs are significantly below typical active strategies and even lower than many passive options. With expenses already optimized, the main focuses going forward are structure, diversification, and risk, not fee-cutting. Maintaining this low-cost mindset while fine-tuning overlaps and exposures supports stronger long-term net returns.

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