Mostly US stocks with a small bond cushion and strong historical growth but concentrated risk

Report created on Apr 19, 2026

Risk profile

  • Secure
    Speculative

The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.

Diversification profile

  • Focused
    Diversified

The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.

Positions

This portfolio is dominated by broad US stocks, with almost all exposure coming from two total-market index funds and a single large company stake in Berkshire Hathaway. A small slice goes to international stocks through broad funds, and only a thin layer of bond exposure appears inside the balanced fund. Structurally, this is essentially an equity portfolio with a light built‑in stabilizer. That type of structure tends to move closely with stock markets overall, especially the US market. The mix is straightforward and easy to understand, which helps when tracking behavior over time. However, because most of the weight is in just a few core positions, the ups and downs of those main funds will largely define how the portfolio feels day to day.

Growth Info

From 2016 to 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to about $3,911, which works out to a 14.68% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). CAGR is like your average speed over a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This matches the US market benchmark and clearly outpaced the global market, which grew at 12.11% annually. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was around -34% during early 2020, similar to the benchmarks, and it recovered in about five months. That pattern shows strong long‑term compounding but also real short‑term swings. The fact that just 36 days produced 90% of returns underlines how missing a handful of strong days can heavily change the long‑run outcome.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection looks at many possible futures by repeatedly shuffling and replaying return patterns based on historical data. It’s like running 1,000 alternate timelines for the same portfolio. Over 15 years, the median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,791, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,804 to $4,193. The overall average simulated return is about 8.02% per year, and roughly three‑quarters of the simulations end with a positive result. This shows that outcomes cluster around growth but remain highly uncertain. Importantly, Monte Carlo uses the past to model the future, so it can’t predict new regimes or structural shifts; it’s best seen as a rough map, not a precise forecast.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    98%
  • Bonds
    2%

By asset class, the portfolio is about 98% in stocks and 2% in bonds, with the bonds coming indirectly through the balanced fund. That’s a highly equity‑heavy profile, which lines up with the “Growth” risk label and explains why returns and drawdowns look similar to the US market. Stocks have historically offered higher long‑term growth potential than bonds but also sharper and more frequent swings. The tiny bond slice acts more like a minor shock absorber than a full brake, dulling volatility a bit without changing the portfolio’s fundamentally stock‑driven character. This allocation is straightforward and growth‑oriented, and the behavior will largely track global business cycles and equity sentiment.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    29%
  • Financials
    19%
  • Industrials
    10%
  • Health Care
    9%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    8%
  • Telecommunications
    8%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Sector exposure is broad, with a notable tilt toward technology at 29% and financials at 19%, followed by industrials, health care, and consumer areas. This kind of spread is typical of broad market index funds, which is what dominates the portfolio. A tech‑heavier mix often benefits strongly in periods of innovation and low interest rates but can feel more volatile when rates rise or sentiment turns against growth companies. The presence of all major sectors, including smaller stakes in energy, utilities, and real estate, supports diversification within equities. Overall, the sector mix looks well‑balanced relative to common broad‑market benchmarks, which is a strong indicator that sector risk isn’t overly concentrated.

Regions Info

  • North America
    89%
  • Europe Developed
    5%
  • Asia Developed
    2%
  • Japan
    2%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Australasia
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Geographically, about 89% of the equity exposure is in North America, with only modest allocations to Europe, Japan, developed Asia, and emerging markets. This reflects a strong home bias toward the US and its neighbors. That kind of tilt has worked very well over the past decade, as US stocks outperformed many other regions. However, it also means portfolio fortunes are closely tied to a single economic region and currency. Because the rest of the world represents a large share of global market value, the relatively small overseas stake means foreign markets have limited impact on overall returns. This alignment with US‑heavy benchmarks is common but does reduce global diversification somewhat.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    45%
  • Large-cap
    28%
  • Mid-cap
    17%
  • Small-cap
    5%
  • Micro-cap
    2%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

By market capitalization, the portfolio leans heavily into larger companies, with about 45% in mega‑caps and 28% in large‑caps, while mid‑caps, small‑caps, and micro‑caps together make up roughly a quarter. Large and mega‑cap stocks tend to be more established businesses with deeper markets, which often leads to more stable trading and tighter spreads. At the same time, they can be more closely followed and priced by investors, leaving less room for mispricing. The meaningful, though smaller, exposure to mid and small companies adds some extra growth potential and variety in business models. This blend mirrors broad index patterns well and supports a balanced mix of stability and dynamism inside the equity sleeve.

True holdings Info

  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc
    8.09%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 7.10%
  • NVIDIA Corporation
    5.24%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Apple Inc
    4.31%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Microsoft Corporation
    3.19%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Amazon.com Inc
    2.36%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Broadcom Inc
    1.96%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    1.96%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    1.55%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Meta Platforms Inc.
    1.46%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Tesla Inc
    1.21%
    Part of fund(s):
    • LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
    • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Top 10 total 31.33%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Looking through to underlying holdings, Berkshire Hathaway stands out at just over 8% total exposure when combining the direct position and its presence inside ETFs. Big US tech names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla appear across multiple funds, each in the 1–5% overall range. This overlap means several well‑known giants quietly drive a sizeable share of portfolio behavior, even though you only hold them via broad funds. Because only ETF top‑10 positions are captured, actual overlap is likely a bit higher than shown. This is not unusual for index‑based portfolios but does create some hidden concentration in a small group of mega‑cap leaders.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 93%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility are all in the neutral band, clustered around 50–56%. Factors are like the underlying “traits” of stocks — for example, value focuses on cheaper companies, while momentum looks at recent winners. A neutral reading means the portfolio broadly mirrors the overall market’s mix of these traits, instead of making strong bets on any one style. This well‑balanced factor profile helps explain why historical returns and drawdowns closely track broad benchmarks. In different market environments — whether value leads, growth leads, or low‑volatility stocks are favored — the portfolio is likely to behave similarly to a diversified market index rather than swinging with a single factor.

Risk contribution Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 68.00%
    71.0%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 9.80%
    8.5%
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc
    Weight: 7.10%
    6.0%
  • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    Weight: 5.10%
    5.3%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    Weight: 2.80%
    4.3%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 95.1%

Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to total portfolio volatility, which can differ from its weight. Here, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, at 68% weight, contributes about 71% of overall risk, closely in line with its size. The Schwab US Broad Market ETF behaves similarly. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is more notable: at just 2.8% weight, it contributes around 4.3% of risk, reflecting its more volatile, focused nature. The top three holdings together drive over 85% of the portfolio’s fluctuations. This concentration of risk in a handful of positions is typical for a core‑satellite structure and underlines how most of the experience will be defined by those core US equity funds.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares
    High correlation
  • Schwab International Equity ETF
    Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
    High correlation

The correlation data show that several pairs of funds move almost identically. Correlation measures how often assets move together: a value near 1 means they usually rise and fall in sync. Here, the US broad‑market ETF, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, and even the balanced fund all have very high correlations with each other, meaning they behave very similarly day to day. The same pattern appears between the Schwab and Vanguard international funds. High correlations within each region limit diversification benefits — owning two US total‑market funds doesn’t change risk much compared with owning one. Instead, diversification mainly comes from differences between regions, sectors, asset classes, or truly distinct strategies.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The risk‑return optimization compares the current mix against an “efficient frontier,” which is the best tradeoff between risk and return using the same holdings but different weights. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.61, below both the max‑Sharpe portfolio at 1.05 and even the minimum‑variance option at 0.67. Being about 3.2 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level suggests the existing weights are not as efficient as they could be. In plain terms, historical data imply that rearranging the same building blocks might have offered either higher expected return for similar risk, or similar return for less volatility, without adding or removing any holdings.

Dividends Info

  • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF 1.10%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 3.10%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
  • Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares 5.40%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.44%

The overall dividend yield is around 1.44%, which is modest and in line with many growth‑oriented equity mixes. Yield is the income paid out in cash, like interest but from stocks and funds. Most of the holdings sit around 1–3% yield, with one standout: the balanced fund at about 5.4%, likely reflecting its bond and income‑oriented component. In practice, this means total return has been driven more by price appreciation than by income. For portfolios like this, dividends act as a helpful, but not dominant, part of overall results, and reinvesting those payouts can quietly support compounding over long periods even when the headline yield doesn’t look very high.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF 0.03%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 0.06%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
  • Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares 0.07%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%

The portfolio’s average ongoing fee (Total Expense Ratio, or TER) is impressively low at about 0.04%. TER is the annual percentage of assets that goes to the fund manager, deducted inside the fund. Most holdings are ultra‑low‑cost index products, with only the semiconductor ETF charging noticeably more at 0.35% due to its narrower focus. Compared with many actively managed funds that might charge 0.5–1% or more, this cost level is highly competitive. Low fees matter because they come off returns every year; over long periods, even small differences compound into significant amounts. Here, the cost structure is a real strength and supports better long‑term performance relative to higher‑fee alternatives.

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