This portfolio is extremely focused, holding just two thematic equity ETFs: roughly 80% in space-related innovators and 20% in an AI-focused active fund. That means the structure is simple, but exposure is very concentrated in a narrow slice of the equity market. With everything in stocks and nothing in bonds or cash-like assets, the mix is set up for large swings in value. Because the analysis is based on only about 1.3 years of history, it mainly captures a short, strong run in these themes rather than a full market cycle, so any impressions of “typical” behaviour should be treated as early and incomplete.
Over this short 1.3‑year window, €1,000 in the portfolio grew to about €2,247, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) near 86%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip: it smooths the journey into a single yearly rate. This easily beat both US and global equity benchmarks over the same period. At the same time, the portfolio experienced a maximum drawdown of about -31%, meaning a sizeable temporary loss from peak to trough. With only a limited history and a big thematic tilt, these standout returns are better seen as a snapshot of a favourable phase rather than a reliable long‑term pattern.
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which takes the portfolio’s historical ups and downs and randomly reshuffles them thousands of times to map possible future paths. Here, €1,000 has a median simulated value of about €2,844 after 15 years, with a wide “likely” range between roughly €1,852 and €4,360. Monte Carlo helps visualise uncertainty rather than predict a single outcome. However, because the underlying history is only about 1.3 years and covers a strong run for these themes, the model may overstate typical returns and underrepresent long, difficult periods that didn’t appear in this short sample.
All of the portfolio is invested in equities, with 0% in bonds, cash, or other asset classes. That makes the asset-class mix straightforward but aggressive, since stocks tend to move more sharply than bonds, especially in niche themes. Compared with broad global benchmarks that blend different regions, sectors, and often some defensive assets, this portfolio is intentionally maximised for equity exposure. A 100% equity stance can amplify both gains and losses. Given that the analysis spans only about 1.3 years during a strong phase for growth themes, the current risk/return balance might look more comfortable than it would over a full, more volatile market cycle.
Sector exposure is heavily tilted toward industrials (about 42%), technology (35%), and telecommunications (23%), with only a tiny slice in consumer discretionary. This aligns with the underlying space and AI themes, which naturally lean into advanced manufacturing, satellites, software, and communications infrastructure. Compared with broad equity benchmarks where sectors like financials, healthcare, or consumer staples play larger roles, this portfolio is more narrowly positioned. Concentrating in innovation-heavy sectors often means higher sensitivity to changes in funding conditions, regulation, and sentiment around “future tech.” With just 1.3 years of data, the current sector performance may not reflect how these areas behave across different economic environments.
Geographically, around 70% of the portfolio’s equity exposure is tied to North America, with smaller allocations to developed Europe, developed Asia, Japan, and very minor exposure to emerging regions. This is consistent with space and AI companies being heavily listed in US and Canadian markets. Relative to global equity benchmarks, which spread more evenly across regions, this creates a clear North American tilt. That tilt means portfolio outcomes may be strongly influenced by that region’s economic and regulatory environment. Because the observation window is short and recent years have favoured US growth and tech-related names, the degree to which this regional skew helps or hurts over a full cycle remains uncertain.
The portfolio’s market-cap mix is unusual versus broad indices: about 32% in small caps, 30% in mid caps, 16% in micro caps, and only a modest share in mega and large caps. Smaller and micro-cap companies often have higher growth potential but also more volatile price moves and more sensitivity to news and funding conditions. In contrast, mega and large caps usually show more stable behaviour. The heavy tilt toward the smaller end of the spectrum fits with early-stage space and AI innovators. Over the limited 1.3-year period, that tilt has coincided with strong gains, but history suggests small and micro caps can also experience extended drawdowns that may not be fully visible in this brief sample.
Looking through to the top underlying holdings, names like AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, Planet Labs, Rocket Lab, and ViaSat show up with weights around 4–6% each across the ETFs. This indicates meaningful exposure to a cluster of specialised companies in similar industries. Because only top-10 ETF positions are included, actual overlap might be higher than shown. Hidden concentration occurs when the same company appears in multiple funds, so its influence is larger than any single fund allocation suggests. Given the short performance period and intense thematic focus, the portfolio’s returns so far have been closely tied to how a relatively small group of innovative, but often volatile, firms have behaved.
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs. Here, the space innovators ETF is 80% of the weight but contributes about 86.5% of total risk, so it punches slightly above its size. The AI ETF is 20% of the weight yet contributes only around 13.5% of risk, meaning it’s comparatively less volatile or differently correlated. This pattern is typical when one position is both large and aggressive. With only two holdings, total risk is naturally concentrated: the top two funds account for 100% of portfolio risk by definition. Over a short 1.3‑year window, that dominance has coincided with strong upside but also sizeable drawdowns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart, or efficient frontier, compares the current mix with two theoretical portfolios built from the same holdings: the one with the highest Sharpe ratio and the one with the lowest possible volatility. The Sharpe ratio is a simple way to measure return per unit of risk above a risk-free rate. Here, the current portfolio’s Sharpe is 1.69, close to the optimal 1.81, and it lies on or very near the frontier. That means, given these two ETFs and this limited 1.3‑year history, the existing weight split has been efficient for its risk level. However, efficiency is calculated from recent data, so it may shift as more market environments are observed.
The weighted ongoing fee, or Total Expense Ratio (TER), is about 0.44%, with the space innovators ETF charging 0.55%. TER is the annual percentage fee charged by funds to cover management and operating costs, quietly deducted inside the ETF. For specialised thematic strategies and active approaches, this fee level is fairly typical rather than excessive. Costs matter because they come off returns every year and compound over time, like a small leak in a bucket. With such strong short-term performance, fees have been overshadowed in this 1.3-year window, but over decades, even differences of a few tenths of a percent can add up.
The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Insightfolio does not provide investment advice, personalized recommendations, or guidance regarding the purchase, holding, or sale of financial assets. The tools and content are intended for educational purposes only and are not tailored to individual circumstances, financial needs, or objectives.
Insightfolio assumes no liability for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Users are solely responsible for verifying the information and making independent decisions based on their own research and careful consideration. Use of the platform should not replace consultation with qualified financial professionals.
Investments involve risks. Users should be aware that the value of investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Investment decisions should be based on personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and independent evaluation of relevant information.
Insightfolio does not endorse or guarantee the suitability of any particular financial product, security, or strategy. Any projections, forecasts, or hypothetical scenarios presented on the platform are for illustrative purposes only and are not guarantees of future outcomes.
By accessing the services, information, or content offered by Insightfolio, users acknowledge and agree to these terms of the disclaimer. If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use our platform.
Instrument logos provided by Elbstream.
Your feedback makes a difference! Share your thoughts in our quick survey. Take the survey