Highly speculative portfolio with significant concentration in Ast Spacemobile Inc and major US ETFs

Report created on Jul 20, 2025

Risk profile Info

7/7
Speculative
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is characterized by a heavy concentration in Ast Spacemobile Inc, making up nearly half of the portfolio, alongside significant investments in major US ETFs. Such a composition indicates a speculative approach, heavily reliant on the performance of a single stock, while also attempting to balance with broad market exposure through ETFs. The diversification is markedly low, with a speculative risk profile underscored by a high risk score.

Growth Info

Historically, this portfolio has shown a remarkable Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 42.70%. However, it's crucial to note the high maximum drawdown of -51.26%, which reflects the portfolio's volatility and risk level. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 12.0 days further indicates the speculative nature of the portfolio, where a few good days account for most gains.

Projection Info

Monte Carlo simulations, using historical data to forecast potential outcomes, suggest a wide range of future performance scenarios. With a median projection of 799.4% growth, the optimistic view is tantalizing. However, the 5th percentile projection of -48.2% underscores the substantial risk of loss. Such simulations are useful for understanding potential volatility but cannot guarantee future results.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    89%

The portfolio's allocation leans heavily towards stocks (89%), with a significant portion in a single stock and the remainder in diversified ETFs. This stock-heavy strategy is complemented by a small allocation in a money market fund, providing minimal cash liquidity. The lack of exposure to other asset classes, like bonds or real estate, limits the portfolio's diversification and risk mitigation potential.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    61%
  • Financials
    6%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    5%
  • Telecommunications
    4%
  • Health Care
    4%
  • Industrials
    3%
  • Consumer Staples
    2%
  • Energy
    1%
  • Utilities
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%
  • Basic Materials
    1%

Sector allocation is predominantly in technology, reflecting over 60% of the portfolio, largely due to the heavy investment in Ast Spacemobile Inc. This tech-heavy focus increases the portfolio's susceptibility to sector-specific risks. The remaining sectors, including financial services and consumer cyclicals, are significantly underrepresented, which could limit the portfolio's resilience to tech market volatility.

Regions Info

  • North America
    89%

Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely invested in North America (89%), with no exposure to developed European or Asian markets, nor to emerging markets. This geographic concentration in the US market enhances risk from regional economic downturns or geopolitical tensions affecting North American markets.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    60%
  • Mega-cap
    21%
  • Mid-cap
    7%
  • Small-cap
    1%

The portfolio's market capitalization exposure is skewed towards big and mega-cap stocks (81%), with minimal exposure to medium, small, and micro-cap stocks. This bias towards larger companies might offer stability but can limit growth potential and diversification benefits that smaller companies might provide.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    iShares Core S&P 500 ETF
    iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF
    Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    High correlation

The portfolio exhibits high correlation among its ETF holdings, which include the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and others. This redundancy reduces the diversification benefits, as these ETFs track similar indices and thus tend to move in tandem, especially during market downturns.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

Given the portfolio's high risk and low diversification, optimization could significantly improve its risk-return profile. Removing overlapping ETFs and rebalancing the heavy concentration in Ast Spacemobile Inc could reduce volatility and improve diversification. The Efficient Frontier concept suggests that there's potential to achieve a better balance between risk and return by adjusting the asset allocation without necessarily sacrificing expected returns.

Dividends Info

  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 1.30%
  • iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF 0.40%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
  • Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund 4.30%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.96%

Dividend yields across the portfolio vary, with the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund offering the highest yield at 4.30%. The overall portfolio's yield is 0.96%, indicating a moderate contribution of dividends to total returns. For a speculative portfolio, dividends provide a small but steady income stream, which can be a minor cushion during volatile periods.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF 0.19%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund 0.08%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

The portfolio benefits from low costs, with Total Expense Ratios (TERs) for the ETFs ranging from 0.03% to 0.19%. Low costs are crucial for long-term growth, as they directly enhance net returns. The overall portfolio cost efficiency is commendable and supports better performance over time.

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