Strongly growth tilted portfolio with heavy focus on US technology and semiconductor stocks
Report created on Apr 19, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 67.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 33.00%
This portfolio is made up of just two ETFs: a broad S&P 500 fund at 67% and a dedicated semiconductor ETF at 33%. So every dollar is in stocks, with a big tilt toward one high‑growth industry on top of an already growth‑heavy index. Structurally, this creates a “core and satellite” design: the S&P 500 acts as the core, while semiconductors are a concentrated satellite bet. That setup matters because it shapes how the portfolio moves: part of the ride tracks the broad US market, and part swings more sharply with the chip cycle. The mix offers focused growth exposure, but the low number of holdings reduces diversification compared with more spread‑out portfolios.
Growth
From 2016 to 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 here grew to about $8,747, which is a 24.31% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). CAGR is like the average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out all the bumps along the way. Over this period, the portfolio outpaced the US market by 9.52 percentage points a year and the global market by 12.16 points, which is a very large gap. The price for that strong return was a maximum drawdown of -35.75%, slightly deeper than the benchmarks’ worst drops. Drawdown measures the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, and the recovery took about nine months. This history shows powerful upside but also notable downside swings.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks at many possible future paths by “re‑rolling the dice” on returns using historical patterns. It’s like simulating 1,000 alternate futures for this same mix of funds. After 15 years, the median path turns $1,000 into about $2,855, which works out to an annualized 8.28% across all simulations. The middle half of outcomes (p25–p75) ranges from $1,859 to $4,262, while more extreme but still plausible results stretch from roughly preserving capital to very strong growth. Around 76% of simulations end positive. These numbers are not promises; they’re illustrations based on past data, which may not repeat, especially for a sector as cyclical as semiconductors.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset‑class wise, this portfolio is 100% in stocks, with no bonds, cash, or alternatives in the mix. That’s important because stocks tend to have higher long‑term return potential but also larger and more frequent swings along the way. There is no built‑in cushion from traditionally steadier assets, so any downturn in equity markets feeds directly into the portfolio value. Relative to broader “balanced” allocations that mix stocks and bonds, this setup leans clearly toward growth and volatility. Historically, such equity‑only allocations can shine in long bull markets but feel much harsher in recessions or sharp corrections, since there’s nothing structurally offsetting equity risk.
Sectors
- Technology 55%
- Financials 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector exposure is dominated by technology at 55%, with the rest spread across financials, telecom, consumer discretionary, health care, industrials, staples, energy, utilities, real estate, and materials in small slices. Compared with broad market norms, that technology share is significantly higher, driven largely by the dedicated semiconductor ETF layered on top of the tech weight already inside the S&P 500. Sector concentration matters because industries move in cycles: a tech‑heavy portfolio may do very well when innovation and growth are rewarded, but can be hit harder when interest rates rise, regulation tightens, or sentiment turns against high‑growth names. Here, sector risk is clearly tilted toward one main growth engine.
Regions
- North America 94%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Europe Developed 2%
Geographically, about 94% of the portfolio is in North America, with only small allocations to developed Asia (4%) and developed Europe (2%). Relative to global market weights, this is a strong home‑country tilt toward the US. That focus has historically been rewarding over the last decade, given US market leadership, and this alignment with the main US index is consistent with a US‑centric approach. The trade‑off is that economic, political, and currency risks are heavily tied to a single region. If non‑US markets outperform, this structure will capture only a modest portion of that. Still, for someone tracking US markets, the geographic exposure is coherent and straightforward.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 45%
- Large-cap 39%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 1%
By market cap, the portfolio leans strongly into larger companies: 45% mega‑cap, 39% large‑cap, 15% mid‑cap, and just 1% small‑cap. Mega‑caps are the very largest listed companies, often global brands; they tend to be more established and somewhat more stable than smaller firms, though they still move meaningfully with markets. This mix looks broadly similar to a typical large‑cap index but with an added tilt from the semiconductor ETF, which also includes some mid‑cap names. The emphasis on big companies means the portfolio’s results are heavily driven by a handful of global giants, making performance more tied to how these leaders do than to the fortunes of smaller, more niche firms.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 11.29%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.55%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.46%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 3.54%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.30%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.87%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.78%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 36.84%
Looking through the ETFs, several names appear prominently: NVIDIA at 11.29% is the largest single underlying exposure, with Broadcom at 4.55%, Apple at 4.46%, TSMC at 3.54%, Microsoft at 3.30%, and Amazon and Alphabet classes also meaningful. Because the same companies show up in both the S&P 500 ETF and the semiconductor ETF, there’s hidden overlap that boosts their true weight in the portfolio. This matters because a big move in one or two giants—particularly NVIDIA—can noticeably sway overall returns. The overlap numbers use only ETF top‑10 holdings, so actual concentration is likely a bit higher, but even with this partial view, leadership by a small group of tech names is very clear.
Factors
On factor exposures, value and low volatility both sit in the “low” zone at 37%, meaning a mild tilt away from cheaper and steadier stocks. Other factors—size, momentum, quality, and yield—are around neutral, which is similar to a broad market profile. Factor exposure describes how much the portfolio leans into characteristics like cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility) that research links to long‑run returns. A weaker value and low‑vol tilt is common for growth‑oriented tech holdings, which often trade at higher valuations and can be more volatile. That helps explain both the strong historical returns and the sharper drawdowns: the portfolio leans more toward high‑growth than toward “steady and cheap.”
Risk contribution
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Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 67.00% 53.4% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 33.00% 46.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. The S&P 500 ETF is 67% of the portfolio but contributes about 53.36% of the risk, with a risk/weight ratio of 0.80. The semiconductor ETF is 33% of the weight yet contributes 46.64% of the risk, with a higher risk/weight ratio of 1.41. That means every dollar in the semiconductor ETF pulls more than its weight in terms of volatility. Structurally, this highlights that although the semi position is smaller, it’s almost as important as the core fund in shaping how bumpy the ride feels, reflecting the sector’s cyclical and high‑beta nature.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.82, annualized return of 21.77%, and volatility of 21.68%. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate, so higher is better on a risk‑adjusted basis. The optimal mix using only these two ETFs has a higher Sharpe of 1.04 but also higher risk and return, while the minimum variance mix lowers risk to 18.01% with a Sharpe close to 0.80. The analysis notes the current portfolio is on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning for its chosen risk level, the allocation is already using these two funds in an efficient way.
Dividends
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.80%
Dividend yield for the portfolio is relatively low at 0.80%, combining about 1.10% from the S&P 500 ETF and 0.20% from the semiconductor ETF. Dividends are the cash payments companies make to shareholders and can be a steady component of total return over time. In this case, most of the historical growth has come from price appreciation rather than income, which is consistent with a growth‑heavy, tech‑tilted mix. Many fast‑growing companies reinvest profits instead of paying high dividends. For this portfolio, dividends play a smaller supporting role, while capital gains—driven by earnings growth and valuation changes—have been the main story.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%
The portfolio’s total ongoing cost, measured by Total Expense Ratio (TER), is about 0.14%. That blends a very low 0.03% from the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF with 0.35% from the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, taken directly out of returns. For context, 0.14% is impressively low for a portfolio that mixes a broad index with a specialized sector ETF. Lower costs mean more of the portfolio’s gross performance is kept each year instead of going to fees, which compounds positively over the long run. Structurally, this is a meaningful strength of the setup and supports better net outcomes over time.
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