Riding the tech rocket with training wheels and pretending this is diversified long term investing
Report created on Jul 4, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 55.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 10.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 5.00%
Structurally this portfolio is the classic “I read one Boglehead post then got bored” build. There’s a perfectly sensible 55% in total US market and 20% in total international, then you bolt on small-cap value, a momentum toy, and a semiconductor sliver like a kid decorating a plain pizza. It looks diversified at a distance, but the sauce is still almost entirely equities from one major region. With only about 1.3 years of history, the whole thing is basically a snapshot taken during a favorable stretch, not proof of any grand design. Right now it’s more “growth costume over a core index base” than a carefully engineered long-haul structure.
Growth
On paper the last 1.3 years look heroic: $1,000 turned into $1,448, trouncing both US and global markets by around 7 percentage points of CAGR. That 33.5% annualized return is not a performance record, it’s a lucky speedrun. One tech-heavy year can make anything look like genius. Max drawdown of about -14% was basically the same as the benchmarks, so you ate the same downside with extra upside this time. But with such a short window, this is yesterday’s weather report, not climate data. Extrapolating this streak into the future is how people write very confident future regrets.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projections are like a thousand alternate timelines spun from a very short, very rosy history. Median outcome of $2,893 after 15 years from $1,000 sounds great, and the model says an average 8.4% annual return with a ~77% chance of ending positive. But those ranges are huge: $1,050 to $8,151 between p5 and p95 is basically “anywhere from meh to ridiculous.” With only 1.3 years of inputs, the simulation is guessing based on a hot streak, not a full market cycle. Treat these numbers as entertainment with math, not destiny carved in stone.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is easy to describe: 100% stocks, zero of literally anything else. This is the full send button on risk assets, nicely aligned with the “growth” label but pretending bonds, cash, or anything defensive don’t exist. In calm or bullish markets, that looks bold and clever; in full-blown chaos, it looks like forgetting seatbelts are a thing. Over 1.3 years of mostly good vibes, the all-equity stance felt great. Over decades, this type of construction tends to deliver higher swings in both directions, especially when there’s nothing in the mix whose job is to be boring on purpose.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this portfolio has a 33% tech tilt and a bonus 5% in semiconductors, which are basically tech’s caffeinated little cousin. Between the broad US fund and the dedicated chip ETF, you’ve made an index-plus bet that the digital economy keeps running hot. Financials, industrials, and the rest show up, but more as background characters than stars. That’s fine when tech’s the hero; when it’s the villain, the whole script flips fast. Given the short performance history, you’ve seen mostly the upside of this bias so far, not the part where these sectors drop twice as fast as they went up.
Regions
- North America 80%
- Europe Developed 8%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geography screams “America first and second and maybe third.” Around 80% in North America leaves the rest of the world fighting for scraps. Europe, Japan, and emerging markets exist, but they’re basically a garnish on a US-centric plate. That might feel comfortable, but it’s still a pretty loud regional bet when most of the global economy lives outside one country. Over just 1.3 years—especially during a period where US mega-cap growth has been flexing—this tilt looks brilliant. Stretch that over different environments, and this could just be home bias in a nice Vanguard wrapper rather than global diversification.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 34%
- Large-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 12%
- Micro-cap 6%
The market-cap mix looks diversified on paper: 34% mega, 27% large, then a decent slug in mid, small, and even micro caps. But let’s not pretend this is a balanced democracy. Mega caps still rule the kingdom, and the small caps are there as the scrappy side quest via the small-cap value ETF. With such a short track record, the small-cap component hasn’t really been stress-tested across a full cycle of underperformance, liquidity scares, or rate shocks. Right now, it’s adding flavor and some extra bounce, but in rough environments these little guys can swing like they had three espressos for breakfast.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.41%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.47%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.98%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.91%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.31%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.05%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.93%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 20.47%
The look-through holdings expose the usual suspects: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla—basically the “big tech and friends” fan club. You own them via multiple ETFs, which means hidden overlap is doing more work than you realize. Top-10 data only covers about 30% of the portfolio, so the true duplication is probably worse than it looks. This isn’t a disaster, but it means that when one of these giants sneezes, several of your funds catch a cold at the same time. Over a short 1.3-year run, that overlap boosted returns; in a reversal, it just concentrates pain.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
The factor profile is a bit of a personality crisis. Very low size exposure means you’re tilted away from smaller stocks overall, even though you sprinkled in a small-cap value fund. At the same time, momentum is high, thanks to that focused momentum ETF and the tech-heavy nature of the portfolio. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient label behind the returns, and yours says: “big, fast-moving winners first; smaller stuff only when it behaves.” In a hot streak, this loves to chase leaders; in a whiplash market, high momentum without strong counter-factors can feel like driving fast on ice with average tires.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 55.00% 52.9% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.4% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.4% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.8% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 5.00% 9.5%
Risk contribution shows who’s actually shaking the boat, and unsurprisingly the broad US fund is captain chaos, driving about 53% of total risk for its 55% weight. That’s at least proportionate. The real wild child is the 5% semiconductor ETF doing almost 10% of the risk work—nearly double its weight. For such a tiny slice, it’s yelling pretty loudly in your volatility profile. Add the momentum ETF on top, and your top three positions together pump out over 80% of total risk. So the portfolio looks like a committee but behaves like a three-person band playing tech-heavy riffs at full volume.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, your current portfolio manages the neat trick of being both good and inefficient at the same time. A Sharpe ratio of 1.42 from that brief, hot period is strong, but the curve says you’re sitting about 1.9 percentage points below what could’ve been achieved with the same holdings, just reweighted. The max-Sharpe mix in this backtest is absurdly juiced—81% return with huge risk—another sign of how short and favorable the sample is. Still, the message is clear: even inside this tight set of ETFs, the current blend isn’t making the most of the risk it’s already taking.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.28%
Total yield at about 1.28% makes it clear this portfolio didn’t show up for the dividends. The international fund is doing most of the income lifting, while the momentum and semiconductor pieces contribute roughly pocket lint. That’s fine if the goal is pure growth, but it means nearly all the return story is price movement, not steady cash flow. Over just 1.3 years, that trade-off looks smart because capital gains have done the heavy lifting. Over longer stretches with flat or choppy markets, a yield that low doesn’t exactly cushion the ride or pay many bills while waiting for prices to cooperate again.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio looks like it actually read the manual. A total expense ratio around 0.07% is impressively low, especially considering you’ve snuck in some more specialized ETFs next to the bargain-bin Vanguard cores. You basically managed to build a flashy, tech-tilted, factor-spiced equity cocktail at near-index pricing. That’s annoyingly competent. The catch is that low fees don’t save you from concentrated risks or style bets; they just ensure you’re making those choices cheaply. If this thing ever blows up, it’ll be for portfolio design reasons, not because you overpaid the fund managers.
What next?
Ready to invest in this portfolio?
Select a broker that fits your needs and watch for low fees to maximize your returns.
Create your own report?
Join our community!
The information provided on this platform is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Insightfolio does not provide investment advice, personalized recommendations, or guidance regarding the purchase, holding, or sale of financial assets. The tools and content are intended for educational purposes only and are not tailored to individual circumstances, financial needs, or objectives.
Insightfolio assumes no liability for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Users are solely responsible for verifying the information and making independent decisions based on their own research and careful consideration. Use of the platform should not replace consultation with qualified financial professionals.
Investments involve risks. Users should be aware that the value of investments may fluctuate and that past performance is not an indicator of future results. Investment decisions should be based on personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and independent evaluation of relevant information.
Insightfolio does not endorse or guarantee the suitability of any particular financial product, security, or strategy. Any projections, forecasts, or hypothetical scenarios presented on the platform are for illustrative purposes only and are not guarantees of future outcomes.
By accessing the services, information, or content offered by Insightfolio, users acknowledge and agree to these terms of the disclaimer. If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use our platform.
Instrument logos provided by Elbstream.
Help us improve Insightfolio
Your feedback makes a difference! Share your thoughts in our quick survey. Take the survey