Mostly sensible index core with one dramatic stock star and a lonely chunk of shiny rock
Report created on May 28, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
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SP SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY - US78462F1030 50.00% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 35.00% -
ME MercadoLibre Inc.
MELI - US58733R1023 10.00% -
GL SPDR® Gold Shares
GLD - US78463V1070 5.00%
This portfolio is basically a two‑ETF index sandwich with a giant MercadoLibre jalapeño stuffed in the middle and a side of gold. Half is plain S&P 500, over a third is developed ex‑US, then a chunky 10% punt on a single stock plus 5% in gold doing its own thing. Structurally, it looks like someone started building a boring textbook global equity mix, got bored, and threw in one high‑octane name and some metal for drama. The result is “mostly diversified but with a clear favorite child,” which means the portfolio’s behavior will quietly follow the indexes until MercadoLibre decides to either moon or explode.
Growth
Historically, the results look great on paper: $1,000 turning into $4,415, beating both the US and global markets on CAGR. But that extra 0.67% over the US came with a max drawdown over 40%, noticeably worse than the benchmarks’ mid‑30s slide. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smoothed‑out “average speed” of growth; drawdown is how far the ride dropped in the worst plunge. This portfolio clearly earned its outperformance by stomaching deeper pain and a 20‑month recovery slog. Past data is useful context, but it’s basically yesterday’s market weather report, not a guaranteed climate forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation is the financial equivalent of running 1,000 alternate universes for this portfolio and seeing where $1,000 lands after 15 years. Median outcome around $2,842 sounds decent, but the “possible” range of about $1,067 to $7,732 is saying: “could be mildly disappointing, could be fantastic, who knows.” The model still gives a 75.7% chance of a gain, but that also means roughly a one‑in‑four shot of ending the period with nothing to brag about. Simulations are only as good as their assumptions; they’re more like a weather forecast than a GPS route — directionally helpful, not a promise.
Asset classes
- Stocks 95%
- Other 5%
Asset‑class breakdown is extremely simple: 95% in stocks and 5% in “other,” which is basically the gold ETF. That’s not a cautious growth stance; that’s “equities all the way, with a small shiny hedge” energy. When almost everything is in stocks, portfolio behavior is overwhelmingly dictated by equity market moods, no matter how fancy the tickers look. The 5% in gold is more of an accessory than armor — it softens blows a bit, but it’s not steering the ship. In asset‑class terms, this is a classic “risk on” setup pretending that a small dose of metal makes it layered and complex.
Sectors
- Technology 23%
- Consumer Discretionary 18%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 11%
- Health Care 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector mix looks like a diet modeled on a broad global index: tech leads, consumer and financials are chunky, and the rest get small cameos. That 23% tech and 18% consumer discretionary combo still gives the portfolio a definite “growth and optimism” tilt, even if it’s not the extreme tech addiction you see in some lineups. The problem is the illusion of control: sector weights look balanced at the top level, but underneath the hood, that 10% single stock and mega‑cap tech exposure through the ETFs mean a lot of the real drama will be concentrated in a small roster of usual suspects when cycles turn.
Regions
- North America 54%
- Europe Developed 17%
- No data 10%
- Japan 7%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Australasia 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this is “America plus the rest of the developed world” with zero obvious love for emerging markets, despite MercadoLibre being the loud exception. North America at 54% and developed Europe and Japan making up most of the rest basically mirror a standard developed‑market mindset. The 10% “no data” bucket is small enough not to be scary, but large enough to be annoyingly mysterious. This setup means the portfolio is heavily tied to the economic fortunes of rich, slow‑growing regions, while pretending to be diversified thanks to a passport stamped mainly in predictable places, not truly adventurous markets.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 38%
- Mid-cap 15%
- No data 5%
- Small-cap 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market‑cap exposure is textbook big‑company bias: 40% mega‑cap, 38% large‑cap, then crumbs for mid and small caps. This is the “own the corporate celebrities, ignore the scrappy underdogs” approach. It keeps things closer to index behavior but also leans hard into whatever the current big winners are doing. That 2% small‑cap slice is so tiny it’s basically garnish, not a meaningful tilt. The portfolio is riding on the fortunes of the biggest names, which helps when market darlings keep winning, but it also means less exposure to the parts of the market that sometimes quietly drive long‑term outperformance away from the spotlight.
True holdings
-
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.18%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
AA Apple Inc 3.51%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.05%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.77%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.54%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.40%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.04%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.92%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
- Top 10 total 28.84%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look‑through holdings reveal the usual mega‑cap suspects stacked on top of each other: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla. Classic index overlap: you didn’t “pick” them, they just showed up everywhere. Meanwhile, MercadoLibre is a standalone 10% position with zero ETF overlap, making it the unhedged outlier in a world of duplicated giants. Overlap data only covers ETF top 10s, so true concentration is almost surely worse than it looks. This is less a diversified set of businesses and more a council of tech‑heavy titans, plus one very loud Latin American outpost carrying its own unique risk.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure is suspiciously well‑behaved: everything huddles around “neutral,” with no big lean to value, size, momentum, quality, yield, or low volatility. In factor language, that means this portfolio mostly behaves like the market — no smart‑beta heroics, no deep‑value angst, no low‑volatility safety blanket. Factor investing is basically reading the ingredient label behind returns; here, the recipe is “standard index stew plus one spicy stock.” The accidental lesson: the overall portfolio isn’t winning or losing because of clever factor tilts. It’s being driven by plain market exposure and that single concentrated name’s mood swings, not hidden style choices.
Risk contribution
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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Weight: 50.00% 48.2% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 35.00% 31.4% -
MercadoLibre Inc.
Weight: 10.00% 19.5% -
SPDR® Gold Shares
Weight: 5.00% 0.8%
Risk contribution exposes the real main character: MercadoLibre is 10% of the weight but almost 20% of total risk. That’s a risk/weight ratio of 1.95, meaning it’s pulling nearly double its fair share of drama. The S&P and developed‑markets ETFs together account for almost all the rest of the risk, while the gold position contributes less than 1% — basically emotional support metal. This is a portfolio where three positions generate 99% of the volatility, so all the action lives in a tiny cast. On paper it looks diversified; in reality, a single stock is punching way above its weight in the volatility ring.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart basically calls this portfolio a bit lazy. At its current risk level, it’s 4.11 percentage points below what could be achieved just by rearranging the same holdings more intelligently. Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk) is 0.7, while the optimal mix hits 1.17 and even the minimum‑variance option beats it at 1.1. Translation: the portfolio takes more risk than needed for the return it gets, using these exact ingredients. The frontier is saying, “You picked decent stuff, then threw it in the bowl at random.” The raw materials are fine; the proportions are where efficiency went to die.
Dividends
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 1.00%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.41%
Dividend yield at 1.41% is barely a side dish, not a core feature. The developed‑markets ETF does most of the income heavy lifting at 2.6%, while the S&P 500’s 1.0% gently whispers “growth focus.” With a 10% growthy stock and 5% in gold (which pays zero), income clearly wasn’t the priority. This setup is basically saying: “Total return now, maybe cash flow later.” There’s nothing wrong with that, but anyone expecting serious passive income from this mix would be waiting a long time for relatively small checks, while most of the action shows up in price swings instead of payouts.
Ongoing product costs
- SPDR® Gold Shares 0.40%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 0.10%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Costs are almost annoyingly reasonable. A 0.09% total TER is “did you mean to be this efficient?” territory. The gold ETF at 0.40% is the diva of the group but still not absurd for its niche. The big equity ETFs are priced like someone actually noticed fees matter: 0.10% and 0.05% are about as low as it gets in mainstream land. So there’s no exciting villain here — the portfolio’s issues are not about paying too much for the wrappers. This is a rare case where the joke is: “You nailed the fees, and then made the mistakes everywhere else.”
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