Indexing with a side of bitcoin chaos and one random stock gatecrashing the party
Report created on Apr 22, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 70.00% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 15.00% -
VP Vanguard FTSE Pacific Index Fund ETF Shares
VPL - US9220428661 10.00% -
FB Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust
FBTC - US3159481098 4.00% -
ST Seagate Technology PLC
STX - IE00BKVD2N49 1.00%
This portfolio is basically a big lazy VTI shrine with some international window dressing plus a 4% bitcoin firecracker and a 1% Seagate “because why not” pick. Structurally it’s 70% one fund, 25% two nearly redundant funds, and 5% pure personality. It’s like building a rock‑solid house and then bolting a jet engine and a garden gnome to the roof. The core is coherent broad-market indexing; the fringe stuff turns it into a slightly confused hybrid. Overall, it behaves like a plain stock index portfolio that really wants to pretend it’s more complex than it actually is.
Growth
Historically this thing has ripped: 22.24% CAGR versus ~20% for both US and global markets, turning $1,000 into $1,570 in a little over two years. That’s impressive, but with a max drawdown near -18% it didn’t exactly float serenely through turbulence. And note the 16 days making up 90% of returns — that’s “miss a handful of good days and your story changes” territory. This period happens to favor US-heavy, tech-laced portfolios, so the win is real but context-dependent. Past data is like yesterday’s weather: nice to know, deeply unqualified to predict what happens next.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection runs 1,000 “what if the future acts kinda like the past” simulations and averages the chaos. Median outcome is $2,866 from $1,000 in 15 years, with a wide “could be fine, could be meh” band from about $1,065 to $7,925. That’s the math equivalent of shrugging and saying, “Yeah, mostly up, but buckle up.” An 8.40% average annualized return across simulations is reasonable for an equity‑heavy setup, but none of this is a promise — just a bunch of sophisticated dice rolls based on old data that never met the future’s plot twists.
Asset classes
- Stocks 96%
- Crypto 4%
Asset-class-wise, this is 96% stocks and 4% crypto, which is “balanced” only if the definition of balanced is “not literally 100% equities.” There are no bonds, no cash buffer, just a sliver of bitcoin pretending to diversify while actually just adding extra mood swings. In practice, the portfolio lives and dies with global equities; the crypto slice is more emotional seasoning than structural design. For something labeled “Balanced Investors,” this is really a straight equity portfolio with a speculative kicker, not a true mix of genuinely different return drivers.
Sectors
- Technology 27%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 9%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Real Estate 3%
- Utilities 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector spread is textbook “modern indexer with a tech crush”: 27% in technology, then financials, industrials, and healthcare trailing behind like supporting characters. Telecommunications is oddly chunky at 8%, and everything more boring (utilities, staples) gets the leftovers. This isn’t disastrous, but let’s not pretend it’s sector-agnostic either — it’s tilted toward growthy, rate‑sensitive areas that party in booms and sulk when rates spike or risk appetite dies. Compared to a perfectly neutral mix, this portfolio is clearly betting that innovation and cyclicals will keep carrying the narrative.
Regions
- North America 71%
- Japan 9%
- Europe Developed 8%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Australasia 3%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this is unapologetically US‑centric: 71% North America, then a scattered tour of Japan, developed Europe, and broader developed Asia. Emerging markets may as well not exist. It’s basically “US plus a polite nod to the rest of the developed world.” That bias has been rewarded for the last decade, which makes it feel smart, but it’s still concentration: a big chunk of outcome is tied to one economic and policy regime. The diversification score calling this “moderately diversified” is generous; it’s globally aware, not genuinely global.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market-cap mix is classic core index: 40% mega-cap, 30% large, with mid and small caps getting progressively smaller slices and micro-caps a token 2%. It’s like a party where the billionaires own most of the room and a few scrappy founders are allowed in for optics. This isn’t wrong — just very benchmark-like. The result is a portfolio that moves with the giants; when the mega-caps sneeze, this thing catches a cold. Any belief in smaller companies driving distinct behavior is mostly theoretical here, because the elephants are clearly in charge.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 4.14%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.24%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.63%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.39%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.16%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
- Top 10 total 22.45%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look-through holdings scream “US mega-cap tech fan club”: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla, Broadcom — it’s the usual suspects on repeat. These names appear across funds, so their real influence is larger than it looks at first glance; the overlap effectively stacks bets on the same handful of companies. Seagate is the lone direct stock, which is almost funny given how dominated everything else is by diversified ETFs. With only ETF top-10s visible, the overlap is understated, but even this partial view shows the portfolio is a lot less diversified at the business level than the ticker list pretends.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor profile is aggressively average across the board — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low vol are all basically neutral. That’s both sensible and dull: you’ve basically bought “the market personality” instead of tilting toward any specific style. No strong lean into cheap stocks, fast-movers, or safety plays; no yield-chasing either. In factor language, this is the index equivalent of vanilla ice cream. The upside: behavior should broadly match the overall market. The downside: if the market stumbles, there’s no deliberate factor edge here trying to bail it out.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 70.00% 69.8% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 12.5% -
Vanguard FTSE Pacific Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 9.4% -
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust
Weight: 4.00% 6.6% -
Seagate Technology PLC
Weight: 1.00% 1.6%
Risk contribution is brutally simple: the 70% total market ETF drives nearly 70% of total risk. The two international funds add another ~22%, so the top 3 positions are doing 91.8% of the risk heavy lifting. Bitcoin and Seagate are small but punchy — each contributing around 1.6x their weight in risk. That’s like inviting two guests who drink more than everyone else combined, despite being 5% of the headcount. The real story: this is a broad-market US-centric risk engine with a couple of noisy side characters, not a genuinely mixed chorus.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is leaving performance on the table. At its current risk level, it sits about 5.27 percentage points below what’s achievable using the exact same ingredients with smarter weighting. Sharpe ratio of 1.07 versus 1.29 for the minimum variance setup and a huge 1.99 for the max-Sharpe combo basically says, “Nice collection, clumsy arrangement.” You’ve got the right building blocks, but the mix is not making the most of them. This is like buying a decent tool set and then using a wrench to hammer nails.
Dividends
- Seagate Technology PLC 0.50%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Vanguard FTSE Pacific Index Fund ETF Shares 3.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.50%
Dividend yield is a modest 1.50% overall, driven mostly by the developed and Pacific ETFs with small help from VTI and a token yield from Seagate. This is definitely not a cashflow machine; it’s more “total return and vibes” than “mailbox money.” Relying on income here would be like trying to live off free samples at Costco — technically possible on a good day, but not what this setup is built for. The emphasis is clearly on growth and broad exposure, with dividends playing a quiet supporting role rather than starring in the show.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust 0.25%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Vanguard FTSE Pacific Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are almost suspiciously low: a portfolio TER of 0.05% with the three main ETFs charging 0.03–0.08%. Even the bitcoin trust is only 0.25%, which in crypto land counts as borderline generous. This is one of the few areas where there’s nothing to roast — you’re basically paying couch-cushion money for full-market exposure. It’s like accidentally walking into first-class pricing on a budget airline: same turbulence, but at least the ticket was cheap. If anything goes wrong with this portfolio, the fees won’t be the villain.
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