A growth portfolio wearing a sensible suit with a secret semiconductor gambling habit on the side
Report created on Mar 17, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 10.00%
Structurally this thing is a classic “I read Bogleheads then got bored” portfolio. About half in an S&P 500 core, a chunky tilt to small-cap value, a token international sleeve, and then a random 10% joyride in semiconductors. Against a plain vanilla global stock index, it’s more concentrated in the US and more tilted to smaller, cheaper companies plus a single hyper‑cyclical theme. That semi fund is the oddball here, turning an otherwise textbook growth mix into something spicier. Cleaning this up would mean deciding if this is a boring core portfolio with a small sandbox, or a factor-and-theme playground pretending to be a core. Pick a personality and build around it.
Growth
Historically, a 12.44% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is nothing to complain about. If someone stuck $10,000 in this mix and let it ride, it would roughly grow to about $32,000 over 10 years, give or take the usual market chaos. That’s broadly in the same postcode as US-heavy benchmarks, helped by the tech and US bias. Max drawdown of -25.77% is actually pretty mild for a growth profile, but don’t get too smug — that says more about the specific lookback period than your genius. Past data is like yesterday’s weather: useful, but it doesn’t care about the next storm. Keep expectations grounded and stress-test your tolerance for a deeper hit.
Projection
The Monte Carlo output is basically saying, “Most futures look good, but the tails are wild.” Monte Carlo just runs thousands of what-if paths using historical-like volatility and correlations. Median outcome of +392% and a 67th percentile around +649% screams “stocks, baby,” but that cute 5th percentile at +9.5% after the full horizon is the quiet warning. That’s essentially “many years of drama for almost no real progress.” And all this assumes the future rhymes with the past, which is a heroic assumption. Treat these numbers as ballpark, not prophecy. If that worst-case line still lets long-term goals work, fine; if not, risk needs dialing down before reality does it for you.
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- Cash 1%
You are 99% stocks with 1% cash, which is basically no seatbelt and one knee pad. This is an all-in growth posture dressed up as “Profile_Growth” instead of the more honest label: “I really don’t like bonds.” One asset class means one main source of risk: equity market direction. When stocks get punched, everything here gets punched together, just some harder than others. Spreading across more asset classes (bonds, real assets, even a bit more cash) would turn this from a single-engine plane into at least a twin-engine. If the plan is multi-decade growth and you truly stomach ugly drawdowns, fine — but don’t pretend this is balanced. It’s deliberately not.
Sectors
- Technology 31%
- Financials 16%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Technology at 31% plus semiconductors at 10% of the portfolio (and those semis are already inside tech) is basically saying, “Yes, I would like my concentration risk supersized.” Financials, industrials, cyclicals — they’re present, but tech and chip exposure is clearly running the show. This is less a broad market and more a tech-forward portfolio that happens to own some other sectors for decoration. When tech rips, you’ll look brilliant; when tech derates, you’ll be googling “why is my portfolio down more than the index.” A more even sector mix would mean dialing back the semiconductor side hustle and letting non-tech areas pull some weight, so not all roads lead to Silicon Valley earnings season.
Regions
- North America 80%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Latin America 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this screams “America or bust.” Around 80% in North America and only ~20% scattered across the rest of the planet is a classic home bias for a US-based investor, but still pretty one-eyed. International at 20% is better than zero, so mild clap for at least acknowledging other countries exist. But Europe, Japan, emerging markets and the rest are basically side characters in a US blockbuster. If the US continues to dominate, this works; if leadership rotates abroad, you’re underexposed. Pushing non-US from “participation trophy” levels toward something closer to global market weights would smooth country‑specific risks — like regulation hits, dollar moves, or a lost decade in US large caps.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 36%
- Large-cap 28%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 12%
- Micro-cap 9%
The size mix is where things get more interesting. Mega + big caps at 64% keep you anchored in the giants, but 12% small and 9% micro tell me you’ve deliberately spiked the punch. That Avantis small cap value chunk is doing heavy lifting here, giving you more exposure to the weird, cheap, slightly chaotic end of the market. Size tilting like this historically can boost returns but also adds bumpiness — small caps are like teenagers: volatile, emotional, and overreacting to every bit of news. If that’s intentional, solid. If not, you accidentally signed up for extra volatility. You could tame the mood swings by easing off the smallest names or balancing with a bit more boring large-cap ballast.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 3.24%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.70%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.97%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.66%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.32%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.02%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 21.39%
The look-through is a who’s-who of “market darlings with nosebleed expectations.” NVIDIA north of 5%, then Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla, Micron, Broadcom. This isn’t just diversified equity; it’s a popularity contest heavily skewed toward mega-cap growth and especially chips. And note: 24.8% of the portfolio is beyond the top-10 holdings, so this actually understates your tech and US growth addiction. If the Magnificent Whatever-Number-We’re-On-Now stumbles, this portfolio absolutely feels it. To dial down single-theme whiplash, consider trimming redundant mega-cap tech exposure or balancing it with more boring, cash-generating names and regions that don’t all move to the same earnings call.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing is a mashup: heavy value tilt (85%), heavy size tilt (85%), plus decent momentum (61%) and some low volatility (60%). Think of factors as the secret sauce flavors: value (cheap), size (small), momentum (recent winners), low vol (less jumpy). You’re trying to be a bargain hunter in small caps while also chasing some winners and pretending to be slightly defensive. Slightly confused personality, but not terrible. The catch: coverage is only 40%, so the signals are fuzzy, and you have no real read on quality or yield. Leaning hard into value and small without checking quality is like buying clearance items without checking if they’re broken. Tighten this up by confirming you’re not just loading up on junky small names for the sake of factor purity.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 45.5% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 22.2% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 10.00% 17.2% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 15.2%
Risk contribution exposes who’s actually causing the drama, not just who looks big on paper. The S&P 500 at 50% weight contributes about 45% of risk — pretty proportional. The small-cap value ETF at 20% weight kicks in 22% of risk, slightly punchier but reasonable. The troublemaker is the semiconductor ETF: 10% weight but 17.18% of total portfolio risk, with a 1.72 risk-to-weight ratio. That’s one smallish sleeve doing big damage when markets move. If this tilt is intentional, fine — but understand you effectively gave that 10% a megaphone. To avoid single-theme hangovers, think about whether that much of your volatility budget should be spent on one narrow industry.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On risk versus return, this is decently efficient for someone intentionally playing in the “growth with a twist” lane, but not exactly on the theoretical Efficient Frontier. The Efficient Frontier is just the nerdy way of saying “best return you can reasonably expect for each risk level.” You’ve added risk via small caps and semis without a slam-dunk case those extras are giving proportionally better long-term reward versus just more broad equity. If the aim is maximum long-term growth with high tolerance for bumps, this is close enough. If the aim is smooth compounding, you’re overpaying in volatility. A more efficient mix would tone down the single-sector bets and add at least one genuinely defensive asset class.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.80%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 3.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.58%
A total yield of 1.58% is not exactly “live off the income” territory; it’s more like “buys a couple of lunches.” The international ETF is the yield hero at ~3.1%, while semiconductors barely bother at 0.5%. Nothing wrong with that for a growth focus, but if someone thinks this produces meaningful cash flow, they’re kidding themselves. Dividends here are a side quest, not the main game. Yield strategies can be a trap anyway — chasing high payouts often means buying companies the market already suspects are in trouble. If income will matter down the road, think of a later-life remix toward more stable, higher-payout assets instead of forcing yield into a growth‑tilted design.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Costs are where this portfolio quietly nails it. A total TER of 0.09% is comically low for something that actually has some factor thought and a theme tilt. That’s “I accidentally did the right thing on fees” level good. Semis at 0.19% and Avantis at 0.25% are still reasonable given their more specialized strategies, and the Vanguard cores at 0.03%–0.05% are basically free in practical terms. Low fees don’t guarantee good outcomes, but high fees definitely tank them over time. Here, at least, the fee leak is minimal, so most of the performance drama will be from your asset choices, not a fund manager quietly siphoning off your returns.
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