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Confident factor nerd portfolio trying very hard to be smart beta without quite sticking the landing

Report created on Jun 27, 2026

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

4/5
Broadly Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio looks like someone read three books on factor investing and then stopped halfway through chapter four. It’s 100% equity exposure in practice, sliced across big, mid, and small, with a side quest into value, growth, and dividends all at once. The structure screams “I like tilts” but also “I’m scared to commit,” so everything ends up at tidy round numbers: 20-20-20 on mid caps, S&P 500, and international, then a bunch of small add‑ons. It’s not chaos, but it’s busy. The result is a portfolio that wants to be thoughtfully engineered yet still feels like a committee project that never killed any darlings.

Growth Info

Historically, this thing has done fine, just not impressive enough to justify all the knobs and dials. A $1,000 stake turned into $1,666, which sounds great until the plain-vanilla US market walked away with a higher CAGR and basically the same drawdown. You took almost the same gut punch (about -25%) as the benchmarks but got paid less for it. CAGR, the “average speed” of your money over the trip, is lower than the US market and even slightly behind the global market. All that clever slicing and tilting has, so far, mostly added complexity rather than clear outperformance.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection is basically saying, “You’ll probably be okay, but don’t get cocky.” Monte Carlo just runs thousands of alternate futures using past-style volatility and returns to see what might happen, and here the median outcome is a decent $2,691 from $1,000 over 15 years. The spread is wide, though: anything from just breaking even in real terms to hitting nearly $8,000. That’s the price of riding a risk-on, equities-only setup. And remember, simulations are like financial fan fiction — based on some reality, but nobody promised the sequel follows the same plot.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    80%
  • No data
    20%

On the asset class side, this isn’t a “balanced” portfolio so much as an “equity portfolio with branding.” You’ve got 80% clearly labeled as stocks and 20% in a black box of “no data,” which doesn’t exactly scream transparency. There’s effectively no deliberate ballast from bonds, cash, or anything defensive here — it’s all growth engine, no shock absorbers. Calling this “balanced” is like calling a sports car with snow tires a winter vehicle. When markets are friendly, fine. When they’re not, there’s very little in this mix whose job is to calm things down.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    15%
  • Financials
    14%
  • Industrials
    12%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    9%
  • Energy
    7%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Basic Materials
    5%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Telecommunications
    4%
  • Utilities
    3%
  • Real Estate
    2%

Sector-wise, the portfolio is trying hard not to look like a tech junkie, but the usual suspects still dominate the stage. Technology leads at 15%, and the look-through confirms the classic mega‑cap tech and communication names are quietly steering a lot of the ride. Then you’ve got solid chunks in financials and industrials, so it’s basically tracking the broad market sector salad with mild tweaks. Nothing outrageously concentrated, but also nothing original here — it’s a closet benchmark hugger dressed up as a factor portfolio. The risk is you inherit market-level sector swings while pretending you’re doing something exotic.

Regions Info

  • North America
    52%
  • Europe Developed
    10%
  • Asia Developed
    5%
  • Japan
    5%
  • Asia Emerging
    4%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%

Geographically, this is “US first, rest of world as a checkbox.” About 52% in North America and the rest scattered thinly across developed and emerging regions. Europe, Japan, and Asia get small roles, like background actors in a very American movie. For something with “total international” and separate international small and EM value funds, the non-US stake isn’t exactly bold — more like a polite nod. The result is a portfolio that will live or die mostly on US sentiment anyway. The diversification score says “broadly diversified,” but the map is still heavily red, white, and blue.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mid-cap
    27%
  • Large-cap
    17%
  • Mega-cap
    16%
  • Small-cap
    11%
  • Micro-cap
    8%

The market cap breakdown is where the personality shows: mid caps are the main character at 27%, with mega and large caps trailing behind and a nontrivial 19% in small and micro. This is not a regular index profile; it’s very “I believe in the forgotten middle child and the scrappy underdogs.” That tilt can juice returns in some cycles but also adds extra bumpiness when smaller names get smacked. It’s like choosing a team of solid B‑students and a few chaotic freshmen instead of just coasting with the valedictorians — more interesting, but not always comfortable.

True holdings Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    2.70%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Apple Inc.
    2.39%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Microsoft Corporation
    1.68%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Amazon.com Inc
    1.34%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    1.15%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Broadcom Inc
    1.06%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    0.92%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
    0.79%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Tesla Inc
    0.75%
    Part of fund(s):
    • LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Meta Platforms Inc.
    0.75%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
  • Top 10 total 13.55%

The look-through holdings basically reveal a greatest-hits album of mega-cap tech hiding under the hood. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla — all here, all over the place, thanks to overlapping broad US and global funds. Even with only top-10 ETF data, you can already see the duplication: you’re paying multiple vehicles to keep buying the same handful of giants. Overlap isn’t automatically bad, but it does mean actual concentration is higher than it looks on the surface. The portfolio pretends to be diversified, but the same ten celebrities keep photobombing every group picture.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
High
Data availability: 100%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
High
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor-wise, the portfolio is loudly tilted toward value and smaller companies: value at 64% and size at 60% both sit clearly above neutral. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient list for why a portfolio behaves the way it does, and here the recipe is “cheap-ish and smaller-ish,” sprinkled over a very standard growth and mega-cap core. Momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility hover near neutral, so nothing extreme there. The funny part is the combo: you’ve got hot mega-cap growth names via broad funds layered on top of deliberate small-cap value tilts. It’s like mixing black coffee with energy drinks — works, but it’s a weird statement.

Risk contribution Info

  • Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 20.00%
    20.6%
  • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
    Weight: 20.00%
    19.6%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
    Weight: 15.00%
    17.9%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 20.00%
    17.7%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    Weight: 10.00%
    12.0%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 87.8%

Risk contribution shows who’s actually shaking the portfolio, and it’s not subtle. The top three positions — mid-cap index, S&P 500, and US small-cap value — make up 55% of the weight but over 58% of total risk, so they’re very much in charge. Schawb’s large-cap growth fund is only 10% by weight but punches at 12% of risk, slightly over-energetic for its size. Risk contribution is like checking who’s making the noise in a band: most of the volume here is coming from a few big amps, while the rest of the positions are more decorative than decisive.

Redundant positions Info

  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF
    High correlation

The correlation note calling out the Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is basically saying, “Congrats, you bought the same thing twice with different labels.” High correlation means they tend to move almost identically, so holding both doesn’t add much variety — it just doubles down on the same ride. Correlation is like how often two friends show up to events wearing the same outfit: funny once, pointless after that. When markets drop, these two aren’t likely to offset each other; they’ll probably just jump off the same cliff together.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On the risk–return chart, this portfolio is comfortably below the efficient frontier, which is a polite way of saying “inefficient.” The Sharpe ratio — return per unit of risk — is 0.51, while the optimal mix of these same ingredients could reach 0.84 at similar risk. That’s a big gap for no new holdings. You’re taking 16.78% volatility but leaving around 2.5 percentage points of annual return on the table versus what’s mathematically achievable with the exact same parts. It’s like owning all the pieces of a decent Lego spaceship and then building a slightly wobbly rectangle instead.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.80%
  • Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF 2.50%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 2.50%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.30%
  • Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 1.40%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
  • State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF 1.30%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.66%

The dividend profile is half-hearted income cosplay. A total yield of 1.66% is barely above “participation trophy,” and the dedicated dividend ETF is just 5% of the mix. Meanwhile, the real yield lift is coming from the value and international sleeves, not some grand income strategy. If this were really an income-focused build, the numbers would look very different. Instead, it’s a growth-and-factor portfolio with a light dividend garnish so it can say “yield” at parties. Nothing wrong with that, but it’s not exactly a cash flow machine in its current shape.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
  • Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF 0.36%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
  • Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.10%

Costs are the one area where this portfolio doesn’t embarrass itself. A total expense ratio of 0.10% is very reasonable, especially given the factor-tilt toys in the Avantis funds. It’s almost suspiciously sensible — like you accidentally did the right thing while trying to be clever. Sure, the pricier Avantis slices drag the average up a bit, but the core Vanguard and Schwab funds keep the whole thing anchored in low-fee territory. At least you’re not paying luxury prices for this slightly overcomplicated construction; it’s more like a discount buffet with a few premium side dishes.

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