Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong small cap value tilt and efficient risk profile
Report created on Mar 23, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 35.48% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 32.26% -
VU Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
VUG - US9229087369 32.26%
The portfolio is extremely focused: three US stock ETFs make up 100% of the allocation, split fairly evenly between a total market core, a growth sleeve, and a small cap value tilt. This structure blends broad exposure with clear style tilts instead of holding many scattered funds. That simplicity makes it easy to understand how the portfolio behaves and to maintain it over time. The flip side is that diversification across asset types is limited. The big takeaway is that this is a deliberately focused, equity-only setup built for growth, not for smoothing volatility with bonds or other stabilizers.
Growth
Historically, a $1,000 example investment grew to $2,504, beating both the US and global market references. The portfolio’s CAGR of 16.75% outpaced the US market’s 14.69% and the global market’s 12.25%, which is a strong result over this period. Max drawdown at -37.32% was deeper than the benchmarks’ roughly -34%, showing that higher returns came with slightly sharper drops. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 19 days underlines how missing a few strong days can dramatically change results. Past data is encouraging but not a guarantee; it mainly shows this mix has historically been rewarded for taking more risk.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection simulates many possible futures by mixing and reordering past returns to see a range of outcomes. It suggests a wide spread after 10 years: from about +64% in a pessimistic 5th-percentile scenario to over +1,000% around the 67th percentile. The median path implies roughly seven-fold growth, with most simulations ending positive. The average simulated annual return of 19% is high and reflects the strong historical period used as input. The key caveat is that this approach assumes the future looks statistically similar to the past, which may not hold. Treat these numbers as rough scenario ranges, not promises or guarantees.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All assets are in stocks, with 0% allocated to bonds, cash, or alternatives. That 100% equity stance clearly targets long-term capital growth and accepts meaningful short-term swings. Compared with more balanced mixes that include bonds or defensive assets, this setup can rise more in strong markets but may fall harder in crashes. The portfolio’s “Growth” risk classification and score of 5 out of 7 line up well with this reality. The low diversification score of 2 out of 5 also reflects the one-asset-class focus. For someone wanting smoother ride or near-term spending needs, blending in other asset classes would usually be how you dial down volatility.
Sectors
- Technology 29%
- Financials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 13%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Energy 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio tilts toward Technology at 29%, with Financial Services and Consumer Cyclicals next, and modest allocations across Industrials, Communication Services, Energy, Healthcare, and others. This isn’t wildly off common broad-market patterns, but Technology and growth-linked areas stand out as key drivers. Tech-heavy exposure tends to benefit when innovation is rewarded and interest rates are stable or falling, yet it can be more volatile when rates rise or sentiment shifts away from growth. The positive here is that there is still some spread across ten sectors, not a single-sector bet. But sector diversification is not strong enough to behave like a defensive, all-weather mix.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in North America, at 99%, with just 1% in Latin America and essentially no exposure elsewhere. That’s far more home-biased than global benchmarks, which typically allocate a much larger share outside the US. This strong US focus has worked very well over the last decade, since US stocks have led many other regions. However, it also means outcomes are tightly tied to the US economy, policy, and currency. If non-US markets outperform for a stretch, this portfolio won’t fully participate. The alignment with the US market is clear and intentional, but it comes with less global diversification.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 37%
- Small-cap 19%
- Large-cap 18%
- Micro-cap 15%
- Mid-cap 11%
By market cap, the portfolio has a healthy spread: about 37% in mega caps, 18% in big caps, 11% in mid caps, and a combined 34% in small and micro caps. That relatively large small and micro allocation reflects the dedicated small cap value ETF, which introduces more company-specific risk and volatility but also higher potential long-term return. Mega caps provide stability and liquidity, while smaller companies add growth and factor exposure. This market-cap mix is more adventurous than a pure large-cap index, positioning the portfolio for potentially stronger performance during periods when smaller companies outperform, at the cost of bumpier short-term moves.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 6.04%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.81%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.50%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.21%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.08%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.77%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LL Eli Lilly and Company 1.39%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 31.83%
Looking through the ETFs, there is a heavy concentration in the largest US growth names: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, and Eli Lilly all appear via multiple funds. NVIDIA and Apple alone total over 6% each, purely via fund overlap. This creates “hidden” concentration because several ETFs own the same giants at the top, magnifying exposure to their fortunes. While the coverage only uses top-10 ETF holdings and understates true overlap, it already shows that a handful of mega-cap companies drive a meaningful slice of risk and return. That concentration can be powerful when these names lead, but cuts both ways in a downturn.
Factors
Factor exposure shows strong tilts: Size at 85% and Value at 55% dominate, with Momentum at about 45% and somewhat lower Low Volatility. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of stocks that research links to long-term returns. A strong Size tilt means a bias toward smaller companies; Value means favoring cheaper stocks relative to fundamentals. These tilts often shine when markets reward cyclicals, recover from downturns, or rotate away from expensive growth. However, they can lag when mega-cap growth leads. The decent Momentum exposure suggests a tendency to hold recent winners, which can help in trending markets but hurt during sharp reversals. Overall, this is a purposeful, factor-driven equity strategy.
Risk contribution
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Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 32.26% 36.5% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 35.48% 31.8% -
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 32.26% 31.7%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF actually drives portfolio volatility, which isn’t always the same as its weight. The small cap value fund has a 32.26% weight but contributes 36.51% of total risk, making its risk-to-weight ratio higher than 1. The growth and total market funds each contribute roughly in line with their weights. This tells you the small cap value sleeve is the main “risk amplifier,” as smaller, cheaper stocks tend to swing more day to day. Nothing here screams extreme concentration, but it’s clear where most of the extra volatility comes from. Adjusting that position would be the main lever for changing overall risk.
Redundant positions
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High correlationVanguard Growth Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Correlation measures how often holdings move together. Here, the growth ETF and total market ETF are highly correlated, meaning they tend to rise and fall in similar ways. That overlap limits diversification because owning two highly correlated funds is closer to “more of the same” than adding something truly different. Correlation isn’t bad on its own; it just explains why this mix still feels like a single strong bet on US equities even with three funds. To materially change the ride, you’d need assets that zig when these zag, rather than more that behave almost identically.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, the current portfolio sits on the efficient frontier, which means that for its mix of holdings, it’s already using risk well. Its Sharpe ratio of 0.67 is a bit lower than the optimal Sharpe of 0.74, suggesting that reweighting the same three ETFs could slightly improve risk-adjusted return. The minimum variance mix would lower risk to about 20.7% with still-solid expected returns, while the highest-Sharpe allocation nudges expected return higher with a modest risk increase. Because you’re already on the frontier, the big picture is positive: the allocation is broadly efficient, with only fine-tuning rather than major surgery implied by the math.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.80%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.17%
The portfolio’s total yield is about 1.17%, with the small cap value ETF offering the highest yield at 1.8%, the total market around 1.2%, and the growth ETF at 0.5%. That’s a modest income level, typical for a growth-tilted US stock portfolio. Most of the expected payoff is from price appreciation, not dividends. For investors focused on building wealth over long periods, reinvesting these dividends can still meaningfully boost compounding. But for someone seeking sizable cash flow today, this yield would likely feel low. In that case, more income-focused strategies would usually be considered to increase the cash component relative to pure growth.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.10%
Total portfolio costs are very low at a blended TER of about 0.10%, thanks largely to the cheap Vanguard ETFs at 0.03% and 0.04%, with the Avantis small cap value fund at 0.25%. These levels are well below the average actively managed fund and align closely with best practices for cost control. Low fees are one of the few things you can control with near certainty, and saving even small percentages annually compounds significantly over decades. From a cost standpoint, this setup is impressively efficient and supports better long-term outcomes, leaving more of the portfolio’s returns in your pocket rather than going to fund providers.
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