Highly concentrated tech heavy portfolio with short but extremely strong and volatile recent performance
Report created on May 13, 2026Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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SN Sandisk Corp
SNDK - US80004C2008 47.67% -
RK Rocket Lab USA Inc.
RKLB - US7731211089 18.60% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 16.28% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 6.98% -
LI Lumentum Holdings Inc
LITE - US55024U1097 3.49% -
AA Apple Inc
AAPL - US0378331005 2.33% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 2.33% -
ME Meta Platforms Inc.
META - US30303M1027 1.16% -
MS Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - US5949181045 1.16%
This portfolio is built almost entirely around a few individual tech‑related stocks, with Sandisk alone close to half the total weight and Rocket Lab as the second‑largest position. Two ETFs round out the rest, one focused on semiconductors and one on momentum stocks, plus a handful of mega‑cap names in small sizes. This creates a “barbell” between very concentrated single‑stock bets and broad baskets, but the single stocks clearly dominate. A structure like this usually behaves more like those top holdings than like a diversified fund. With only about 1.2 years of data, it’s hard to know if this pattern will persist, but the current mix clearly leans toward focused growth themes rather than broad market exposure.
Growth
Over the short 1.2‑year window, performance has been extraordinary: $1,000 grew to about $19,190, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) above 1,000%. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year, smoothing ups and downs like a car’s average speed over a trip. This massively outpaced both the US and global market benchmarks, which grew in the high‑teens to low‑twenties percent range. At the same time, the portfolio saw a max drawdown of about -36%, nearly double the US market’s. With just 27 days making up 90% of returns, results have been very lumpy. Given the tiny sample period, this should be viewed as a snapshot of an unusually strong run, not a proven long‑term pattern.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses that short history to simulate 1,000 alternate futures over 15 years, each randomly mixing returns and volatility based on recent behavior. It suggests a median outcome where $1,000 grows to about $2,784, with a wide “likely” range from roughly $1,905 to $4,369 and a very broad possible range from about $983 to $7,343. Monte Carlo is like rolling dice thousands of times to see many paths instead of just one straight line. The implied average annual return across simulations is around 8.15%. But because the inputs come from only 1.2 years of unusually strong and volatile data, these projections are especially fragile and should be treated as rough illustrations, not reliable forecasts.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or other asset classes. That means the entire outcome is tied to equity markets and company‑specific news, without the stabilizing effect that fixed income or cash can sometimes provide. An all‑equity mix like this generally amplifies both gains and losses compared with more mixed asset allocations. Over the short data window, this concentration in stocks has helped during a strong run in the underlying names, but it also explains the sizable drawdown of roughly -36% in a relatively brief period. With no other asset classes in the mix, day‑to‑day and month‑to‑month swings will likely continue to be a central feature of how this portfolio behaves.
Sectors
- Technology 77%
- Industrials 20%
- Telecommunications 2%
Sector exposure is heavily tilted: about 77% in technology, 20% in industrials, and a small 2% slice in telecommunications. Compared with broad market benchmarks, this is far more tech‑centric, reflecting the focus on semiconductors, hardware, and other high‑growth areas. Sector allocations matter because different parts of the economy react differently to interest rates, regulation, and business cycles. Tech‑heavy portfolios often benefit when growth companies are in favor and borrowing costs are low but can be harder hit when sentiment shifts or valuations compress. Over the limited historical window, the sector tilt has lined up with strong performance, but this also means outcomes are tightly connected to how these specific sectors fare going forward.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in North America, at around 98%, with minimal exposure to developed Asia and Europe. This is far more home‑focused than global benchmarks, where non‑US markets make up a substantial share of total world equity value. Geography matters because economic growth, inflation, currencies, and policy decisions can diverge meaningfully across regions. A portfolio that is almost entirely tied to one region’s companies and currency rises and falls mainly with that area’s fortunes. In the short performance history, North America’s tech‑driven strength has been a tailwind, but there is very little balancing exposure if other regions outperform or if North American markets go through a weaker patch.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 80%
- Mega-cap 18%
- Mid-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans strongly toward large and mega‑cap names: about 80% in large caps and 18% in mega caps, with only 1% in mid caps and effectively no small‑cap exposure. Market cap is basically company size on the stock market. Larger companies often have more stable earnings and broader businesses, while smaller ones can be more volatile but sometimes move more dramatically. Here, many of the large‑cap and mega‑cap positions are in fast‑moving tech names, so “large” does not automatically mean “low risk.” Over the short data period, these big, growth‑oriented stocks have driven much of the performance, but their weight also means portfolio behavior is closely tied to how large growth companies do.
True holdings
-
-
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
-
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 85.67%
Looking through the ETFs reveals that a handful of names dominate underlying exposure. Sandisk at 47.67% and Rocket Lab at 18.60% are pure single‑stock bets, while NVIDIA appears both directly (2.33%) and via ETFs (3.30%), for a combined 5.63%. Other notable semiconductor names like Broadcom, Micron, TSMC, Intel, and AMD each show up through ETF holdings. This overlap means the portfolio is more concentrated in certain companies and themes than the headline list suggests. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are captured, true overlap is likely a bit higher. Over time, such clustering can make performance heavily dependent on a relatively small set of related companies, especially within semiconductors and advanced tech hardware.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows very high momentum (94%) and high quality (76%), combined with very low size (0%) and very low low‑volatility (16%), plus low value and yield. Factors are like underlying “traits” that help explain why investments behave as they do. A strong momentum tilt means the portfolio leans into stocks that have recently been strong performers, which can work well in trending markets but may bite harder in sharp reversals. Very low size and low‑volatility exposure indicate minimal tilt toward smaller or more stable, defensive names. Over this short period, the momentum bias clearly lines up with the extreme upside performance, but it also suggests that performance could swing quickly if recent winners fall out of favor.
Risk contribution
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Sandisk Corp
Weight: 47.67% 71.7% -
Rocket Lab USA Inc.
Weight: 18.60% 14.8% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 16.28% 7.0% -
Lumentum Holdings Inc
Weight: 3.49% 3.0% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 6.98% 1.8% - Top 5 risk contribution 98.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives overall volatility. Sandisk is 47.67% of the portfolio but contributes about 71.65% of total risk, meaning it dominates the ups and downs. Rocket Lab, at 18.60% weight, adds 14.80% of risk, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF at 16.28% weight accounts for only 7.04% of risk. The top three holdings together explain roughly 93.5% of total risk. This is a textbook example of how weight and risk can differ: a single loud “instrument” can drown out the rest of the orchestra. Over a short history, these numbers can shift, but the current snapshot makes it clear that portfolio behavior is largely a story about Sandisk, with Rocket Lab a distant second.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart compares the current mix to an “efficient frontier,” which shows the best achievable return for each risk level using just these holdings in different weights. The current portfolio sits about 12.2 percentage points below that frontier at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of 3.3. The Sharpe ratio is a simple risk‑adjusted return measure: higher means more return per unit of volatility, after adjusting for a 4% risk‑free rate. The optimal portfolio on this frontier has a higher Sharpe of 3.63 with even more risk, while the minimum‑variance portfolio offers much lower risk and return. Since only 1.2 years of data drive these stats, they may overstate how repeatable the observed efficiency gaps really are.
Dividends
- Apple Inc 0.30%
- Meta Platforms Inc. 0.30%
- Microsoft Corporation 0.90%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.10%
Dividend yield across the portfolio is very low, with a total yield of about 0.10%. Individual payers like Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and the ETFs contribute small yields, but the main drivers are growth‑oriented tech names that historically rely more on reinvested earnings than on cash payouts. Dividends can be an important part of long‑term stock returns, especially in more mature, slower‑growth areas. Here, the story is clearly about price appreciation rather than income. Over the short observed period, the massive gains have come almost entirely from rising share prices, not dividends. That means the portfolio’s return profile is more tightly tied to market sentiment and growth expectations than to steady cash flows.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%
Costs in this portfolio are impressively low. The two ETFs carry ongoing charges (TERs) of 0.35% and 0.13%, and when blended across the whole portfolio including zero‑fee direct stocks, the total TER comes out around 0.07%. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is like a small annual membership fee charged by funds, taken directly from returns. Lower costs leave more of any future gains in the investor’s pocket, and over long periods, even tiny differences can compound meaningfully. With only 1.2 years of data, it’s too early to see the long‑term effect of these low fees in this specific portfolio, but structurally the cost base is a strong positive and aligns well with best practices in fee awareness.
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