Concentrated US growth portfolio with heavy technology tilt and strong recent gains but sharp past drawdowns
Report created on May 7, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VU Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
VUG - US9229087369 60.00% -
VG Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
VGT - US92204A7028 19.00% -
VT Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares
VTV - US9229087443 9.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 8.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 4.00%
This portfolio is a tight blend of five stock ETFs, with 60% in a broad US growth fund and 19% in a dedicated US technology fund. Another 8% sits in a semiconductor ETF, 9% in a US value fund, and 4% in an international stock fund. So it’s almost entirely focused on growth-oriented US equities, with a big overweight to technology themes and only a small slice outside the US. This concentrated structure helps explain both the strong performance in tech-led markets and the relatively low diversification score. The overall setup is simple and easy to understand, but most of the behaviour will be driven by a handful of similar growth and tech-heavy exposures.
Growth
Over the period from mid‑2021 to April 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,021, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.55%. CAGR is like your average “speed” over the full journey, smoothing out bumps along the way. That outpaced both the US market (13.00%) and the global market (10.46%). The trade‑off was a deeper maximum drawdown of -34.27%, compared with -24.50% and -26.42% for the benchmarks. It also needed about 14 months to recover from that slump. Historically, strong upside has come with sharper, longer downturns, and a small number of days (18) generated most of the gains.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation projects many possible 15‑year paths using past volatility and returns as a guide. Think of it as running the portfolio through 1,000 different “what if” market histories. The median outcome grows $1,000 to around $2,681, with most scenarios falling between roughly $1,756 and $4,228 and a wide possible range from $956 to $7,850. The average annualized return across simulations is 8.10%, with about a 72% chance of ending positive. These numbers show how uncertain long‑term results can be, even when the starting point is a strong historical record. As always, these are models based on history, not promises about the future.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Across asset classes, this portfolio is a pure 100% equity allocation, with no bonds, cash-like vehicles, or alternatives. Equities historically offer higher growth potential than safer assets, but their prices can swing more sharply, especially over shorter periods. Having everything in stocks means there is no built‑in cushion from fixed income during equity market drops. Compared with broad multi‑asset benchmarks that mix stocks and bonds, this setup leans fully into growth and volatility. For someone measuring diversification, the main variation here comes from different types of equities rather than different asset classes, which is why the diversification score comes out low.
Sectors
- Technology 60%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Financials 6%
- Health Care 5%
- Industrials 5%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Energy 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector-wise, technology stands out at about 60% of the portfolio, far above common broad-market indices where tech is a large but smaller slice. Telecommunications, consumer discretionary, financials, health care, and industrials together make up most of the rest, while areas like energy, materials, real estate, utilities, and consumer staples each sit around 1–2%. This strong tech tilt helps explain the portfolio’s growth-style performance: technology and related areas often benefit in environments with innovation and low rates, but they can be sensitive when interest rates rise or sentiment turns. The sector structure is clearly growth-oriented rather than evenly spread across the economic spectrum.
Regions
- North America 95%
- Europe Developed 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Asia Emerging 1%
- Japan 1%
Geographically, about 95% of the portfolio is in North America, with only small allocations to developed Europe, Japan, and parts of Asia. A typical global equity benchmark spreads much more across regions, often giving non‑US markets 40–50% of the weight. Here, the small 4% international allocation means currency and economic exposure is overwhelmingly tied to the US. That has been helpful during periods when US stocks outperformed the rest of the world, but it also means results are closely linked to one country’s market and policy environment. The structure is firmly US‑centric rather than globally diversified.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 57%
- Large-cap 26%
- Mid-cap 13%
- Small-cap 2%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans heavily toward the very largest companies, with about 57% in mega‑caps and 26% in large‑caps. Only a modest slice sits in mid‑caps (13%), and very little in small and micro‑caps combined (around 3%). Large established firms tend to be more widely researched and can sometimes show more stable earnings patterns than smaller companies, but they can also behave somewhat similarly to each other in big macro moves. The relatively low small‑cap exposure means the portfolio taps less into that particular driver of risk and return, keeping most of its fate tied to big, well‑known names.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 12.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 10.40%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 7.39%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.32%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.75%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.63%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.49%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.08%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LL Eli Lilly and Company 1.55%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 49.24%
Looking through the ETFs, a handful of companies dominate the underlying exposures. NVIDIA (about 12.3%), Apple (10.4%), Microsoft (7.4%), Broadcom (4.3%), Alphabet’s two share classes (around 6% combined), Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Eli Lilly together make up a large chunk of the covered portion. Many of these names appear in multiple ETFs, creating overlap that boosts effective concentration. For example, Apple and Microsoft are core holdings in broad growth and tech funds, so their impact is amplified beyond any single fund’s weight. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are captured, actual overlap is likely higher than shown, reinforcing the tech‑mega‑cap centre of gravity.
Factors
On factor exposure, this portfolio shows low value (24%), low yield (35%), and low low‑volatility (36%), with other factors roughly neutral. Factors are like underlying “traits” — value, for example, focuses on cheaper stocks; low volatility focuses on steadier ones. A low value score suggests the holdings lean toward more expensive, growth-oriented companies rather than bargain-priced ones. Low yield and low low‑volatility indicate a tilt away from higher-dividend, steadier stocks and toward names whose returns rely more on price appreciation. Neutral size, momentum, and quality mean those traits are broadly market-like. Overall, the portfolio clearly favours growth characteristics over defensive ones.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 60.00% 60.4% -
Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 19.00% 21.4% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 8.00% 11.8% -
Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 9.00% 4.2% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 4.00% 2.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. Here, the main growth ETF at 60% weight contributes about 60% of total risk, while the tech ETF at 19% weight contributes over 21% of risk. The semiconductor ETF is only 8% of assets but accounts for almost 12% of risk, reflecting its higher volatility. In contrast, the value and international funds together are 13% of the weight but less than 7% of risk. The top three holdings generate over 93% of total risk, highlighting that most volatility comes from a small core of growth and tech positions.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
The correlation data shows that the dedicated technology ETF and the broad growth ETF have moved almost identically. Correlation measures how often assets move in the same direction at the same time, on a scale from -1 to 1. When two holdings are highly correlated, they don’t provide much diversification from each other during market swings. In this case, even though they are separate funds, their very similar patterns mean that shocks to growth or tech stocks tend to hit them both in tandem. This helps explain why the portfolio behaves like a very concentrated bet on a single style rather than a mix of unrelated pieces.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.58 with expected return of 16.82% and volatility of 22.08%. The Sharpe ratio compares return to risk, using a risk‑free rate; higher values mean more return per unit of volatility. The efficient frontier shows that, using just these existing holdings, other weightings could reach better risk‑adjusted outcomes. At the current risk level, the portfolio sits about 3.98 percentage points below the frontier, and the optimal Sharpe ratio (0.88) is notably higher. This suggests the current mix is not fully efficient and that rebalancing between the same funds could improve the trade‑off.
Dividends
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.30%
- Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares 1.90%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.60%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is around 0.60%, which is modest compared with broad global or income‑focused equity blends. Yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the current value, so here most total return has historically come from price changes rather than dividends. The value and international funds offer higher yields (around 1.9% and 2.7%), while the growth, tech, and semiconductor exposures sit closer to 0.3–0.4%. This pattern matches the growth tilt seen elsewhere: growth companies often reinvest profits instead of paying them out. For someone tracking income, this portfolio behaves more like a capital‑gains engine than a cash‑flow source.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
- Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
The portfolio’s costs are impressively low, with a blended total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.06%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, expressed as a percentage of assets. In practice, that means roughly $0.60 in yearly fund fees on each $1,000 invested, which is extremely competitive by industry standards. Even the most expensive holding, the semiconductor ETF at 0.19%, is still relatively low cost. Keeping fees this lean is a real strength: over long periods, lower costs leave more of any gross return in the investor’s hands. From a cost perspective, the portfolio’s structure is doing exactly what it should.
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