High momentum concentrated equity portfolio with strong recent gains and modest diversification across styles and regions
Report created on Jun 6, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 35.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 35.00% -
AV American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
AVLV - US0250723493 20.00% -
ID Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
IDMO - US46138E2220 10.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from four equity ETFs, so it is fully invested in stocks with no bonds or cash buffer. Two US momentum funds dominate at a combined 70%, a US large cap value ETF adds 20%, and an international developed momentum ETF rounds out the remaining 10%. The structure leans clearly toward momentum as a style, with a smaller but meaningful counterweight in value and a modest slice outside the US. Because the holdings are all equity funds, portfolio ups and downs are tied closely to stock markets. The mix is deliberately focused rather than broad, which can amplify both gains and losses compared with more mixed-asset approaches.
Growth
Over the roughly 1.2-year period available, a $1,000 investment grew to about $1,514, a very strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) near 41%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This comfortably exceeded both US and global equity benchmarks over the same window, while experiencing a maximum drawdown of about -12.5%, very similar to the benchmarks’ worst dips. Only 14 days generated 90% of returns, showing performance was concentrated in a handful of powerful moves. Because the history is short and unusually strong, these numbers describe what happened, not what should be expected over longer horizons.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses this limited return history to simulate 1,000 different 15-year paths for a $1,000 starting investment. Monte Carlo is basically a “what if” engine: it shuffles and recombines past return patterns to see many possible futures, then summarizes the range. Here, the median outcome lands around $2,818, with most simulations between about $1,884 and $4,370, and a wide overall band from roughly $1,059 to $7,666. The average simulated annual return of 8.25% is far below the recent 40%+ CAGR, reflecting more typical market-like assumptions. Because all of this rests on just over a year of data, the projections should be seen as rough illustrations, not firm forecasts.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in the equity asset class, with 100% in stocks and 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. Asset classes are broad buckets like stocks, bonds, and real estate that tend to behave differently over time. Bonds, for example, often move more gently and sometimes cushion stock declines, while cash barely moves but doesn’t grow much. A fully equity allocation like this has high growth potential but also takes on full stock-market risk, with no built-in stabilizers from other asset classes. Compared with broad market or “balanced” mixes that include bonds, this structure is more exposed to equity cycles and may feel bumpier during market stress.
Sectors
- Technology 42%
- Industrials 16%
- Financials 12%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology at 42%, with the rest spread across industrials, financials, health care, telecom, energy, and smaller slices of consumer areas, materials, utilities, and real estate. Sectors group companies by their economic role and often react differently to interest rates, inflation, or growth trends. A tech-heavy allocation can benefit strongly during periods of innovation and risk-taking but may be more sensitive when rates rise or investors move away from growth themes. Relative to broad market benchmarks that are still tech-tilted but more balanced, this portfolio’s sector mix amplifies exposure to themes often associated with higher volatility and faster-changing narratives.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, about 90% of the portfolio’s equity exposure is in North America, with small allocations to developed Europe, Japan, and other developed Asia. Geography matters because economies, currencies, and policy cycles differ, so spreading exposure can reduce the impact of any one region’s challenges. Global equity benchmarks typically give the US a large but not overwhelming share, leaving more weight for Europe and Asia than seen here. This portfolio’s strong North American focus has matched the recent leadership of US markets, but also means performance is closely tied to the economic and policy environment of a single region and currency, with only modest diversification abroad.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 29%
- Mega-cap 24%
- Small-cap 12%
By company size, the mix leans toward larger firms: large caps and mega caps together make up about 59%, with the rest in mid caps and a smaller 12% allocation to small caps. Market capitalization, or “market cap,” is simply share price times number of shares and is a rough measure of company size. Larger companies tend to be more stable and widely followed, while smaller ones can be more volatile but sometimes grow faster. Compared with a purely large-cap benchmark, this portfolio has a bit more mid-cap and small-cap exposure, adding some extra growth potential and variability, but it’s still firmly anchored in well-established, sizeable businesses.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 4.78%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.70%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.71%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.65%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
DD Datadog Inc 1.43%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TW Twilio Inc 1.41%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.32%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 21.10%
Looking through ETF top holdings, several names appear as notable underlying exposures, including Micron, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Lam Research, Alphabet, and Exxon Mobil. These holdings suggest a meaningful tilt toward semiconductors and other high-growth technology names, plus some exposure to energy and healthcare via companies like Exxon Mobil and Johnson & Johnson. Because only ETF top-10 holdings are captured, overlap is likely understated, but the presence of repeat names across multiple ETFs can quietly increase concentration. This means a handful of companies may influence results more than the fund weights alone suggest, especially during sharp moves in those specific stocks or industries.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure analysis shows a strong tilt toward momentum at 75%, with a very low size exposure at 12% and neutral positions in value and low volatility. Factors are like behavioral “ingredients” that help explain why returns differ, such as cheapness (value), recent winners (momentum), or smaller company size (size). High momentum exposure means the portfolio leans into stocks that have performed well recently, which can amplify returns when trends persist but can hurt during sharp reversals. Very low size exposure suggests a preference for larger companies rather than smaller ones, which tends to reduce the portfolio’s sensitivity to small-cap booms or busts and keeps behavior closer to big-company patterns.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 35.00% 38.9% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 35.00% 36.9% -
American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 15.8% -
Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 8.4%
Risk contribution data shows that the two US momentum ETFs, each at 35% weight, together account for about 76% of total portfolio risk, slightly more than their combined allocation. Risk contribution measures how much each holding drives overall volatility, which can differ from its simple weight. The value ETF and international momentum ETF add relatively less risk than their weights might suggest, contributing about 16% and 8%, respectively. The top three holdings collectively drive over 91% of risk, indicating a fairly concentrated risk profile even though there are four funds. This concentration aligns with the portfolio’s focused design and momentum tilt, magnifying the influence of those key positions on day-to-day swings.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return optimization, using the efficient frontier, suggests this portfolio already sits on or very near the frontier for its set of holdings. The efficient frontier is a curve showing the best expected return for each risk level using different weight mixes of the same components. The current Sharpe ratio of 1.65, which measures return earned per unit of risk above the cash rate, is close to the maximum Sharpe of 1.84 achievable by reweighting. That means the chosen allocation uses these four ETFs in a way that’s broadly efficient given recent data. As always, this is based on a short history, so the “optimal” mix could look different over longer cycles.
Dividends
- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF 1.10%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 3.60%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.90%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is about 0.90%, with income coming mainly from the value and international momentum ETFs, which yield more than the US momentum funds. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the fund’s price, and it can be an important part of long-term returns, especially when reinvested. Here, the relatively low overall yield is typical for momentum-oriented and growth-leaning strategies that focus more on price appreciation than income. Over the short analysis window, most of the portfolio’s gains have come from capital growth rather than dividends, which fits with its style and sector tilts.
Ongoing product costs
- American Century ETF Trust - Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.10%
Estimated total costs, measured by the portfolio’s combined total expense ratio (TER), are around 0.10% per year, which is impressively low. TER is the annual fee charged by funds to cover management and operating expenses, taken directly out of returns. Even small differences in TER compound over time, so keeping costs down supports better net performance, especially over long holding periods. Here, the low-cost structure is a clear strength, allowing the portfolio’s factor and sector tilts to drive outcomes rather than fees. It also compares favorably with many active strategies, which often charge materially higher fees for similar underlying exposures.
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