High octane momentum portfolio with strong tech focus and short but explosive performance history
Report created on Apr 23, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 40.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 30.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 20.00% -
RE VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF
REMX - US92189H8051 10.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from four thematic US-listed equity ETFs, with no bonds or cash buffer. Around 60% sits in two broad US momentum funds, 30% in a semiconductor ETF, and 10% in a rare earths and strategic metals ETF. So the structure leans heavily into momentum and specialized industries rather than broad market exposure. That kind of focus can amplify both gains and losses because everything is pointed in a similar “growthy” direction. With only about 1.1 years of history for these specific holdings together, it’s too early to call this a stable long‑term pattern, but the current setup clearly prioritizes return potential over smoothing out volatility.
Growth
Over the short 1.1‑year window, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $1,688, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That’s far ahead of the US and global market CAGRs of roughly 24–26% over the same period. The portfolio’s max drawdown of about –16.5% was a bit deeper than the benchmarks’ roughly –13.5%. Returns were also highly concentrated: just 13 days made up 90% of gains. With such a short and unusually strong period, this performance may not be representative of what happens over full market cycles.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which basically means the system takes the limited historical return and volatility data, scrambles it thousands of times, and builds a range of possible futures. Here, the median outcome for $1,000 over 15 years lands around $2,877, with a wide “likely” band and even wider extreme range. The average simulated annual return is about 8.2%. These numbers show how compounding can work over time, but they lean heavily on only 1.1 years of history. That short window, plus the portfolio’s concentrated style, means the projections should be seen as rough illustrations rather than solid long‑term expectations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternative assets. Stocks are generally the growth engine in a portfolio, but they also tend to swing more in value, especially in concentrated, thematic funds. Because there’s no stabilizing asset class here, the ride is likely to be bumpier than in a more mixed setup where bonds or cash might help cushion drops. Over longer horizons, 100% equity portfolios can experience big drawdowns that take time to recover. With only about a year of data, the full range of possible ups and downs for this mix hasn’t really been tested through multiple different market environments.
Sectors
- Technology 55%
- Basic Materials 14%
- Industrials 9%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Financials 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Health Care 3%
- Energy 3%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Utilities 1%
Sector-wise, technology dominates at 55%, with the rest spread in smaller slices across materials, industrials, telecoms, financials, consumer areas, health care, energy, staples, and utilities. That tech tilt is much heavier than broad market benchmarks, where technology is significant but not an outright majority. Tech-heavy portfolios often benefit when innovation, earnings growth, and risk sentiment are strong, but they can be hit hard when interest rates rise or when investors rotate into more defensive areas. The added 14% in basic materials, tied to strategic metals, introduces another cyclical element. With limited history, it’s unclear how this exact mix behaves in a real downturn, but concentration risk is clearly elevated.
Regions
- North America 88%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 3%
- Europe Developed 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly North American at 88%, with relatively small exposures to developed and emerging Asia, Australasia, Europe, and Latin America. That’s a stronger US tilt than global benchmarks, where the US is large but not close to 90% of market value. A strong home-region focus can work well during periods when that market outperforms, as has been the case for US equities in recent years, but it also ties results closely to one economy, one policy environment, and largely one currency. Because the current look-back is short and favorable for US markets, it doesn’t show how this tilt might feel if leadership shifts abroad for an extended stretch.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 44%
- Mega-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 20%
- Small-cap 8%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market cap, the portfolio leans toward larger companies: about 71% in mega- and large-caps, with the rest in mid, small, and a sliver of micro-caps. Larger firms typically have more established businesses, deeper liquidity, and more analyst coverage, which can sometimes mean more stability than tiny companies. However, this portfolio’s style and sector tilts likely matter more for volatility than size alone. The mid and small-cap exposure can add extra punch in strong markets, as smaller firms can move more sharply, but they may also fall faster in stressed periods. With only 1.1 years of data, the tradeoff between size exposure and risk hasn’t really been tested across a full cycle.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.71%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.79%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 3.19%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.75%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AD Analog Devices Inc 2.06%
Part of fund(s):- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.90%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 35.06%
Looking through the ETFs, a few individual names stand out as major drivers. NVIDIA alone accounts for about 9.3% of the total portfolio through multiple funds, and Broadcom, Micron, TSMC, AMD, and others add up to a sizable semiconductor cluster. Because the same companies appear across different ETFs, there is hidden concentration: several positions effectively get doubled up. That means the portfolio’s fate is closely tied to a handful of high-profile growth and chip-related stocks. Note that we only see top-10 ETF holdings, so overlap is probably even higher underneath. With such a short data window, much of the recent outperformance lines up with a very strong period for these specific names.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a very strong tilt toward momentum at 75% and a very low tilt to size at 12%, with low value and low-volatility tilts as well. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of a portfolio that research has linked to returns, such as cheapness (value) or recent winners (momentum). A high momentum tilt means the portfolio leans into stocks that have been doing well recently, which can boost returns in trending markets but often leads to sharper reversals when leadership changes. The very low size exposure indicates a bias toward larger companies over smaller ones. With only 1.1 years of history, though, it’s hard to say how consistently these factor tilts will show up in future performance.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 30.00% 40.7% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 40.00% 33.1% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 14.4% -
VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF
Weight: 10.00% 11.8%
Risk contribution highlights how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from just looking at weights. The semiconductor ETF is 30% of the portfolio but contributes about 40.7% of total risk, showing it’s more volatile than its size suggests. The rare earths ETF also contributes more risk than its 10% weight, while the two momentum funds contribute slightly less risk than their combined 60% weight. Altogether, the top three holdings drive over 88% of the portfolio’s volatility. That’s a sign of concentrated risk: changes in just one or two of these funds could meaningfully swing the total portfolio, especially in markets that move sharply against semis or momentum.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return analysis plots the current mix against an efficient frontier built from the same four ETFs. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate, is 1.84 for the current portfolio, compared with 2.26 for the “optimal” mix and 1.64 for the minimum‑variance mix. The current allocation sits about 5.5 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning the same building blocks could be combined in a way that historically delivered better risk-adjusted returns. However, these relationships rely on a short and particularly strong performance period, so any “efficiency” conclusions are fragile and may shift as more data comes in.
Dividends
- VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF 1.30%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.55%
Dividend yield for the overall portfolio is modest at about 0.55%, with the rare earths ETF offering the highest yield among the holdings at 1.3%. Dividends are the cash payouts companies make to shareholders, and over very long horizons they can be a significant slice of total returns. Here, though, the strategy is clearly not income-focused; most of the expected payoff is intended to come from price movements rather than regular cash distributions. That lines up with the momentum and growth tilts. Given the short data window, the current yields should be seen as snapshots rather than guaranteed ongoing levels, since payout policies and sector dynamics can change over time.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF 0.54%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.21%
The weighted total expense ratio (TER) for the portfolio is about 0.21%, with individual fund fees ranging from 0.13% to 0.54%. TER is the annual fee charged by ETFs, expressed as a percentage of assets, and it quietly reduces returns each year. In context, a blended cost around 0.2% is quite low for a set of fairly specialized, thematic funds, and that’s a structural positive: lower ongoing costs leave more of any future gains in the investor’s pocket. Over many years, even small fee differences compound, but with just 1.1 years of actual performance, the impact so far has been minimal and largely overshadowed by return swings.
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