This portfolio is heavily weighted towards equities, specifically the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which makes up 91% of the total allocation. The remaining 9% is invested in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares. This composition indicates a strong focus on large-cap U.S. stocks, with a minimal allocation to bonds for diversification. The portfolio's diversification is classified as single-focused, which is reflected in its low diversification score.
Historically, the portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.25%, with a maximum drawdown of -31.96%. These figures highlight the portfolio's potential for high returns, albeit with significant volatility. The days contributing to 90% of returns total 31, indicating that the portfolio's performance is highly concentrated in specific periods, which is typical for equity-heavy portfolios.
Using Monte Carlo simulation, the portfolio's forward projection shows a wide range of outcomes, with a 5th percentile at 20.5% and a 50th percentile at 182.2%. This suggests a high degree of uncertainty in future returns, which is consistent with the heavy equity allocation. It's important to note that while Monte Carlo simulations provide a broad range of potential outcomes, they cannot predict future market movements with certainty.
The portfolio's asset class allocation is 91% stocks and 9% bonds. This mix supports the portfolio's growth orientation but comes with higher volatility and risk, particularly in market downturns. The lack of cash or alternative investments further underscores the portfolio's aggressive stance.
Sector allocation within the S&P 500 ETF shows a heavy tilt towards Technology, Financial Services, and Consumer Cyclicals, which are sectors known for their growth potential but also for their higher volatility. This sectoral concentration could impact the portfolio's performance during sector-specific downturns.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely allocated to North America (91%), with no exposure to developed markets in Europe or Asia. This geographic concentration in the U.S. market limits global diversification and could increase susceptibility to U.S.-specific economic risks.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for Mega and Big cap stocks, which comprise 74% of the portfolio. This focus on larger companies may provide some stability compared to smaller caps but could also limit potential for outsized gains from smaller, high-growth companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current allocation, there may be room for optimization towards a more efficient risk-return profile. While the Efficient Frontier suggests that an optimal portfolio would balance risk and return more effectively, this portfolio's heavy equity concentration prioritizes growth at the expense of increased volatility. Adjusting the asset allocation could improve the portfolio's risk-adjusted returns without significantly sacrificing growth potential.
The dividend yield for the portfolio is relatively low at 1.43%, reflecting the portfolio's focus on growth over income. While dividends contribute to total return, the primary driver of the portfolio's performance will likely be capital appreciation.
With total portfolio costs at a very low 0.03%, the portfolio is efficiently managed in terms of expenses. Lower costs contribute positively to long-term performance, allowing more of the investment return to compound over time.
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