Tech obsession in a US only bubble with Alphabet worship and everything else as background noise
Report created on Jun 18, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
FT Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
FTEC - US3160928087 40.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 40.00% -
GO Alphabet Inc Class A
GOOGL - US02079K3059 20.00%
This “portfolio” is basically three things in a trench coat pretending to be diversified. Two broad-ish ETFs and one oversized single stock, with Alphabet sitting on a throne at 20% plus extra sneaking in via the funds. The diversification score of 2/5 is generous; this is more “seasoned with variety” than actually mixed. Most of the action comes from one theme and one country, with the total market ETF mostly serving as a fig leaf of respectability. It looks simple and clean, but simplicity here means one big bet with a couple of side salads, not a thoughtfully balanced mix of independent return drivers.
Growth
Historically, this thing absolutely cooked: $1,000 to $7,395 with a 22.25% CAGR while the US market trudged along at 15.44% and global at 12.80%. That’s a huge gap, powered by a very specific bull market regime that loved mega-cap US tech. Max drawdown of about -33% is rough but not worse than the benchmarks, so you got extra return without extra crash severity… so far. Just remember: CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip; it doesn’t tell you how ugly the potholes were. And past data is yesterday’s weather — impressive, but not a guarantee the same storm pattern repeats.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation basically throws this portfolio into 1,000 alternate futures and asks, “How bad or good could this get?” Median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,770 over 15 years, with a wide “could be fine, could be spicy” range from roughly $1,012 to $7,704. The average annual return across scenarios is 8.03%, which is way tamer than the historical 22% joyride. Translation: the simulation is politely saying, “Don’t expect the last decade’s tech party to keep refilling your drink forever.” It’s still generally positive, but the future looks more normal than the backward-looking rocket chart.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: 100% stocks, no chaser. This isn’t a portfolio; it’s an equity monologue. There’s zero ballast from other asset types, so everything rises and falls with stock markets, full stop. That’s great in a raging bull, but in ugly years there’s nothing here whose job is “don’t fall as much.” Putting all your money into one asset class is like only owning sports cars — fun until you hit ice. The risk score of 5/7 makes sense: it’s not full maniac mode, but the dial is firmly on “growth and volatility welcomed.”
Sectors
- Technology 53%
- Telecommunications 24%
- Financials 5%
- Industrials 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 4%
- Health Care 4%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Energy 1%
- Real Estate 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, this is a tech and telecom fan fiction with everything else playing cameo roles. Technology at 53% plus telecommunications at 24% means over three-quarters is tied to broadly similar growth/innovation themes. The remaining sectors barely register as seasoning: single digits spread across financials, industrials, health care, staples, and the rest. This is not a balanced economic cross-section; it’s betting heavily that one style of business keeps dominating. When that sector’s in favor, you look brilliant. When it isn’t, the “diversification” from those token allocations won’t save the overall experience.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geography is easy: 100% North America. Apparently the rest of the world only exists for vacation photos, not investing. This US-only stance has worked brilliantly during the recent era when US mega-cap tech steamrolled everything, but it also means the portfolio’s fate is glued to a single economic and regulatory environment. If other regions outperform for a decade — which does happen — this setup just watches from the sidelines. It’s the investing equivalent of insisting the best food, music, and weather are only in one city and never leaving your zip code to check.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 57%
- Large-cap 23%
- Mid-cap 12%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 2%
Market cap breakdown screams “worship the giants”: 57% mega-cap and another 23% large-cap. Mid-caps get a modest slice, while small and micro-caps are pocket change at 7% combined. So almost everything rides on the biggest, most crowded names. That works when big companies keep winning, but it leaves very little exposure to the more volatile but sometimes higher-growth smaller names. It’s like only betting on the favorites in every race: fewer surprises, but you’re fully exposed if the elites stumble together. This portfolio is essentially a tribute band to the mega-cap club.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.63%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 8.36%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 5.78%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.97%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.35%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.44%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.24%
Part of fund(s):- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.96%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.76%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 54.70%
Look-through holdings expose the real punchline: Alphabet totals 21.22% once you count overlap, with 20% held directly and extra via ETFs. That’s not a position; that’s a shrine. Add Nvidia at 9.63%, Apple at 8.36%, Microsoft at 5.78%, and you’ve got a who’s-who of the same tech darlings repeating across vehicles. Overlap means you’re less diversified than the fund count suggests; multiple wrappers, same underlying names. And that 58.1% coverage is only from ETF top-10s, so concentration is probably even worse under the hood. The portfolio is basically a handful of superstar stocks wearing different ETF costumes.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure is textbook “growth glam”: low value, low size, low yield, low volatility, neutral momentum, and high quality. In English: you’re shunning cheap, small, high-dividend, or defensive stuff and leaning into big, profitable, pricier companies. Factor exposure is like the ingredient list behind performance; here, it says this portfolio thrives when investors love high-quality, mega-cap growth and don’t care about valuation bargains. The high-quality tilt is the one responsible adult in the room, but the lack of value means if the market ever rediscovers “cheap,” this setup won’t be leading that parade.
Risk contribution
-
Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
Weight: 40.00% 44.7% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 40.00% 32.6% -
Alphabet Inc Class A
Weight: 20.00% 22.8%
Risk contribution shows who actually moves the needle, not just who looks big on paper. The tech ETF is 40% of the weight but 44.67% of the risk; Alphabet is 20% weight but 22.78% of risk. That means these two are slightly overachieving in the “make things swing” department. All three holdings together are 100% of the risk (obviously), but it’s telling that the “diversifier” total market ETF punches under its weight in risk at 32.55%. So the volatility drama is coming mainly from the tech-heavy side and the single-stock bet, with the broad ETF basically smoothing out the chaos a bit.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, the portfolio is actually behaving itself: Sharpe ratio of 0.84 with risk around 21.6% is pretty close to the best this particular set of ingredients can do. The optimal mix with the same holdings hits a Sharpe of 1.03 by taking slightly more risk for more return, and the minimum variance version dials risk down but also chops returns. The key point: you’re not leaving a huge amount of risk/return efficiency on the table — the weights are surprisingly competent. It’s a high-octane idea, but within that high-octane theme, the execution isn’t sloppy.
Dividends
- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF 0.30%
- Alphabet Inc Class A 0.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.56%
The portfolio’s dividend yield at 0.56% is basically a participation medal. The tech ETF throws off 0.30%, Alphabet 0.20%, and the total market ETF tries to be the grown-up at 1.00%, but income is clearly not the point here. This is a capital gains or bust setup; anyone expecting meaningful cash flow would be deeply disappointed. Dividends can act like a slow, steady drip of return that doesn’t rely on market mood swings. Here, that drip is more like a leaky faucet — technically there, but no one’s retiring on it.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF 0.08%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio doesn’t deserve a scolding. A total TER of 0.04% is comically cheap — this is “you almost feel bad for the provider” territory. The Fidelity tech ETF at 0.08% and Vanguard total market at 0.03% mean you’re basically renting the entire US market and a big tech slice for pocket change. Fees are under control to the point where the biggest cost isn’t the expense ratios; it’s whatever the market does to you. So yes, you clicked the right ETFs here, even if everything else screams concentrated bet.
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