Highly concentrated tech led portfolio with strong past returns but significant single stock dependence
Report created on May 31, 2024Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
1/5
Positions
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AA Apple Inc
AAPL - US0378331005 81.60% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 6.70% -
DI Walt Disney Company
DIS - US2546871060 6.30% -
TL Tilray Inc
TLRY - US88688T2096 2.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 1.40% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 0.80% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 0.70% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 0.30% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 0.20%
The portfolio is dominated by a single stock, with Apple at over four-fifths of total value. A few other individual names and a small sleeve of broad ETFs round out the mix, but the overall structure is extremely focused rather than diversified. This matters because one company’s fortunes largely decide the portfolio’s long-term outcome, for better or worse. A structure like this can deliver spectacular gains if the main holding keeps winning, but it can also see steep losses if sentiment or fundamentals turn. Anyone running a similar setup should treat it like a high-conviction, high-risk equity bet rather than a balanced core portfolio.
Growth
Over the last several years, the portfolio turned $1,000 into about $2,628, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.45%. CAGR is like the average yearly “speed” of growth over the full period. This comfortably beat both the U.S. market and global market, which grew at 13.11% and 11.17% per year. The trade-off was a max drawdown of -33.64%, meaning at one point the portfolio fell roughly a third from a peak. Historical outperformance is encouraging, but it heavily reflects Apple’s strong run; past returns don’t guarantee the same future path, especially with such concentrated risk.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All assets here are stocks, so there’s a 100% allocation to a single asset class. That keeps the portfolio firmly in growth territory and tightly tied to equity market cycles. Asset classes like bonds or cash often act as cushions when stocks fall, but that buffer is absent here. The upside is maximum participation in equity rallies; the downside is full exposure when markets stumble. This all-equity approach can suit long horizons and strong risk tolerance, but it’s important to recognize that any attempt at smoothing the ride would require adding other asset classes, not just shuffling between different stocks or ETFs.
Sectors
- Technology 89%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Health Care 2%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is overwhelmingly tilted to technology, with nearly nine-tenths of exposure there and small slices elsewhere. This kind of tech-heavy stance can be powerful in periods of innovation, strong earnings growth, and supportive interest rate conditions. However, it can also be very sensitive to shifts in regulation, competition, or rate hikes that pressure valuations. Compared with more balanced sector mixes, this setup is intentionally concentrated in one growth engine. That’s fine if the goal is aggressive growth and the volatility is acceptable, but it’s important to be clear that this is not a broadly diversified sector allocation.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, exposure is almost entirely in North America, with about 99% focused there. This lines up with many U.S.-centric portfolios and has actually been a tailwind in recent years, as U.S. large-cap growth has outpaced many other markets. That alignment with the dominant global market is a positive, as it harnesses a deep, liquid, and innovative economy. The trade-off is limited diversification against regional shocks, like changes in U.S. regulations, taxation, or macroeconomic conditions. Anyone concerned about that kind of “home bias” risk would look at modestly increasing exposure elsewhere, but for now this is a very U.S.-driven story.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 90%
- Large-cap 7%
- Small-cap 2%
- Mid-cap 1%
The portfolio leans extremely hard into mega-cap companies, with around 90% in the largest global names, plus small allocations to large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks. Mega-caps tend to be more stable and profitable than smaller firms, with stronger balance sheets and global reach, which fits well with the very high quality factor reading. However, this tilt can sometimes limit exposure to the faster but bumpier growth often found in smaller companies. The current mix favors established giants over up-and-coming players, which can help during stress periods but may miss some of the diversification and upside that a broader size spectrum can provide.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
-
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 0.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 0.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 0.07%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 0.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 97.35%
Looking through the ETFs, the underlying exposures still circle back to the same big names: Apple, NVIDIA, and other mega-cap tech leaders. Apple’s “hidden” presence via ETFs nudges its total exposure even higher, to roughly 81.75%. This kind of overlap means that what appears to be diversification across multiple funds is actually reinforcing the same positions. It’s like owning several mutual funds that all hold the same star player at the top. While overlap here is only measured using ETF top-10 holdings, it already shows meaningful duplication, so true concentration is likely even stronger than the surface weights suggest.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a very low tilt to value and a very high tilt to quality. Value being very low means holdings are generally expensive relative to fundamentals like earnings or book value; this can pay off during growth-led markets but may lag if investors rotate toward cheaper names. The very high quality tilt suggests companies with strong profitability, solid balance sheets, and durable business models, which historically helps during downturns and reduces the chance of permanent capital loss. Factor investing is like choosing ingredients for a recipe: this mix prioritizes expensive but high-quality growth, accepting valuation risk for perceived business strength.
Risk contribution
-
Apple Inc
Weight: 81.60% 84.6% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 6.70% 8.1% -
Walt Disney Company
Weight: 6.30% 3.3% -
Tilray Inc
Weight: 2.00% 2.4% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 1.40% 0.7% - Top 5 risk contribution 99.1%
Risk contribution data makes it clear that Apple doesn’t just dominate the weight; it dominates the risk, accounting for about 85% of total volatility impact. Even though NVIDIA is a much smaller weight, it still punches above its size on risk contribution, reflecting its high volatility. Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, not just how big it is. Here, the top three positions generate roughly 96% of risk. If the intent is to temper that, the main lever is resizing the largest positions, not tinkering with tiny ETF slices that currently barely move the overall risk needle.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard S&P 500 ETF
The correlation analysis highlights that the S&P 500 ETF and the total U.S. market ETF move almost identically, with a correlation near 1.0. Correlation measures how often assets move together; when it’s this high, holding both doesn’t add much diversification. In practice, this means those two funds are effectively doubling up on the same underlying pattern, especially since both are small weights in an Apple-dominated portfolio. That isn’t harmful by itself, but it is redundant. Simplifying overlapping positions can make the portfolio easier to track and manage without meaningfully changing its overall behavior or risk profile in this specific setup.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return analysis shows the current portfolio sitting well below the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier represents the best possible return for each risk level using only the holdings you already have. Here, the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk) is 0.64, while the optimal mix of these same holdings reaches 1.22 with even slightly lower risk. That gap suggests there’s room to boost expected return or reduce volatility simply by reweighting, without adding new products. Moving closer to the frontier would mean dialing back concentration in the most volatile names and letting the diversified ETFs play a larger role.
Dividends
- Apple Inc 0.40%
- Walt Disney Company 1.40%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 2.60%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 3.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.47%
The overall dividend yield is very low, under 0.5%, even though a few holdings and ETFs offer modest payouts. Dividends are cash distributions that can provide a steady income stream or be reinvested for compounded growth. In a portfolio this growth-oriented and tech-heavy, low yield is expected because many companies prefer to reinvest earnings into expansion rather than pay them out. This aligns with a strategy focused more on capital appreciation than current income. Anyone seeking meaningful cash flow from investments would need a much higher yield profile, likely by tilting more toward income-focused stocks or diversified dividend strategies.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
On the cost side, the ETFs used are impressively cheap, with expense ratios hovering close to zero for several and still low for the rest. Expense ratios are annual fees charged by funds; lower costs mean more of the return stays in your pocket over time. This is one aspect where the portfolio lines up very well with best practices: low-cost, broad-market ETFs are a strong building block. Since individual stocks don’t carry ongoing fund fees, the main drag on performance isn’t costs but concentration risk. From a fee standpoint, the structure is efficient and supports better long-term compounding.
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