Three fund portfolio that is weirdly sensible yet still glued to the US stock market rollercoaster
Report created on Jun 23, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00%
This portfolio is the investing equivalent of “three tabs open and that’s plenty”: one big US core fund, one international sidekick, and a small spicy small-cap value tilt. Structurally, it’s so simple it almost looks lazy, but it also accidentally dodges a lot of classic over-engineering mistakes. The flip side is that 70% in one index fund makes the whole thing basically a lever on mainstream US large caps with a small garnish of “different.” It’s not confused about what it is, but it’s also not exactly imaginative. Think of it as a set menu: solid, predictable, but you’re eating whatever the US stock market chef serves.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio put up a 15.44% CAGR, which is strong until it’s parked next to the US market’s 16.22%. That’s like running a great race and still getting edged out by the basic benchmark you more or less copied. It did beat the global market’s 14.03%, though, so at least it outperformed “Earth.” Max drawdown at -35.06% was only slightly worse than the US and global benchmarks, which means when things got ugly, everything fell together anyway. And those returns were heavily driven by 23 big days, reminding that performance is basically a handful of lucky (or unlucky) moments. Past data here is helpful, but it’s yesterday’s weather, not a long-term forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation is basically a thousand “what if” timelines, and this portfolio’s future looks… statistically fine. Median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,734 in 15 years, which is nice but noticeably lower than its historical joyride. The range from $1,056 to $7,373 screams, “Anything can happen, don’t get cocky.” An 8.02% annualized projected return is more grounded than the backward-looking 15%+ dream, showing how unrealistic it is to expect the last decade on repeat. Simulations are like a weather app: they say “probable showers of volatility,” not “exactly 37.5% gain by 2041.” Still, the odds of a positive outcome are high enough to keep this from looking delusional.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes? Plural? Not here. This thing is 100% stocks, no chaser. It’s basically saying, “Bonds are for someone else, cash is for emergencies, and I only acknowledge equities.” That’s great for long-run growth potential, but it also means accepting that when markets decide to throw a tantrum, the entire portfolio is on the same emotional ride. No stabilizers, no dampeners, just pure market mood swings. In asset-class terms, this is a one-trick pony that happens to be very good at that one trick, but still a pony. Anyone expecting smoother sailing is in the wrong harbor with this setup.
Sectors
- Technology 29%
- Financials 15%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, Technology at 29% is clearly running the show, with everything else playing backup band. Financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials are meaningfully present, but this is still very much a “growth stories and shiny software” vibe under the hood. It’s basically a market-cap-weighted tech crush with a supporting cast to make it look diversified. The risk here is simple: if the tech darlings stumble, a big chunk of the portfolio’s personality goes missing overnight. The other sectors help, but they’re not in charge. This is what happens when broad indexes quietly concentrate into whatever’s been hottest lately and nobody notices until after the fact.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, “USA or bust” is the clear theme: 81% in North America, and the rest of the world gets crumbs. Europe, Japan, and developed Asia get single-digit scraps, while emerging markets barely register. For a “total international” position, the global exposure still feels like a side dish served to justify using the word “international” in a brochure. This kind of home bias is extremely common, but it also means the portfolio is riding on one economic, political, and currency regime. If the US stumbles while other regions do better, this allocation will just shrug and say, “Never heard of them.”
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 41%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 5%
The market cap profile is textbook index-core: 41% mega-cap, 30% large-cap, then a taper down through mid, small, and micro. The tiny 10% tilt to small-cap value adds some spice at the lower end, but make no mistake: this portfolio is ruled by the giants. Mega-caps decide the mood, small caps occasionally scream from the back. It’s fine, it’s normal, but it’s also very “default settings.” The main risk is that when a few mega companies dominate index weights, the portfolio can quietly become more concentrated in a handful of names than the market-cap bucket labels suggest.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.85%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.39%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.28%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.90%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.49%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.32%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.18%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 27.46%
Look-through holdings tell the real story: this portfolio is a tribute band for the Magnificent Tech Mega-Caps. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Micron make up a chunky slice of the visible exposure. And that’s just from top-10 ETF holdings covering only 31% of the portfolio; the true overlap is definitely higher. In plain English, this is not three funds — it’s basically the same big growth names showing up in different costumes. Hidden concentration like this means the portfolio will live and die with a small elite group, even though it pretends to be broadly diversified.
Factors
Factor exposure is almost suspiciously neutral across the board: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all hover around “market-like.” It’s like the portfolio tried every style factor exactly once and then decided to stay in the middle of the road. The tiny small-cap value fund doesn’t move the needle enough to create a proper value or size tilt; it’s more of a rounding error than a strong statement. The upside: there’s no obvious hidden gamble on some quirky academic factor theme. The downside: it’s basically just “own the market and shrug,” which is fine, just not particularly intentional or distinctive from a style perspective.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 70.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.4% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 12.2%
Risk contribution is brutally straightforward: the S&P 500 ETF is 70% of the weight and about 70% of total risk. It’s not just the biggest holding; it’s the main character. The international fund pulls less risk than its weight, acting slightly calmer, while the small-cap value slice punches above its size with a 12.18% risk contribution on 10% weight. That makes it the loud friend in the group — small, but noticeably more chaotic. Overall, the portfolio’s risk isn’t mysterious: if the S&P 500 sneezes, this thing catches a cold, and the small-cap piece occasionally turns it into a fever.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this thing surprisingly behaves like it knows what it’s doing. The current portfolio sits basically on the frontier, meaning for these exact holdings, the risk/return tradeoff is already pretty efficient. Sharpe at 0.63 isn’t heroic, but the max-Sharpe version only squeezes out a bit more at 0.81, with similar risk. Even the minimum-variance mix doesn’t crush it. Translation: within this three-fund universe, the proportions are not dumb. There’s not some glaring “you could have had way more return for less risk” story here — it’s already relatively dialed-in mathematically, even if the underlying ingredients are plain vanilla.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.36%
The total yield at 1.36% is the investing equivalent of “here’s a polite tip, don’t spend it all in one place.” The international fund is doing most of the lifting with a 2.5% yield, while the S&P 500 sits at a low 1% and the small-cap value ETF offers a modest 1.6%. This is clearly not a portfolio that cares much about income; it’s more about price growth and letting companies reinvest. Nothing wrong with that, but anyone dreaming of juicy cash flows from this setup is going to be underwhelmed. The dividends are a side effect, not a feature.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are actually annoyingly good. A total TER of 0.06% is so low it almost ruins the roast. The two Vanguard funds are bargain-bin cheap at 0.03% and 0.05%, and even the “expensive” Avantis ETF at 0.25% doesn’t move the blended cost much. This is like buying the generic brand and finding out it’s made in the same factory as the premium stuff. Fees are not the villain in this story; if anything, they’re one of the few things that are clearly under control. If the performance disappoints, it won’t be because the portfolio bled to death from expenses.
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