Concentrated global growth portfolio with heavy US tilt and efficient risk adjusted historical results
Report created on Jun 13, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 45.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 30.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 25.00%
This portfolio is a three‑ETF, 100% stock mix with a clear growth tilt. About 45% sits in a Nasdaq‑100 tracker, 30% in a broad international stock ETF, and 25% in a US small‑cap value ETF. So the structure blends large US growth, overseas diversification, and smaller value‑oriented companies. Having only three holdings keeps things simple and easy to monitor. The flip side is that every ETF plays a big role in overall behavior, because there are no bonds or cash to dampen swings. This kind of composition typically leads to higher long‑term return potential alongside larger short‑term ups and downs, which fits the “growth” risk score the data assigns.
Growth
One or more local-currency benchmark funds are unavailable for this report.
From late 2020 to mid‑2026, $1,000 grew to about $2,418, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.94%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out all the bumps along the way. Over the same period, the global market benchmark returned 13.66% per year, so this portfolio outpaced it by roughly 3.3 percentage points annually. The max drawdown, the worst peak‑to‑trough drop, was about ‑27%, very similar to the benchmark’s. It took 11 months to fall and 15 months to recover, showing that big equity drawdowns can be lengthy. Only 28 days made up 90% of returns, highlighting how a small number of strong days drove much of the long‑term gain.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past returns and volatility to simulate many possible 15‑year paths for $1,000 invested. Think of it as re‑rolling the historical dice 1,000 times to see a range of outcomes, not a single forecast. The median scenario ends around $2,715, with a “likely” middle band from about $1,833 to $4,194. Extreme but still plausible paths range from roughly breaking even to more than doubling that median. The average simulated annual return is about 8.1%, notably lower than recent history, which is a conservative way to avoid simply extrapolating a strong past run. As always, these simulations are based on historical patterns that may not repeat.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset‑class allocation is simple: 100% in stocks, 0% in bonds or cash. Equities are the main driver of long‑term growth in most portfolios, but they also bring larger and more frequent swings in value. Compared with a more balanced stock‑bond mix, this structure naturally scores higher on risk scales while aiming for higher returns. The presence of both large‑cap growth and small‑cap value within equities does add some diversification inside the stock bucket. Still, there’s no structural cushion from fixed income, so any volatility reduction has to come from mixing different styles of stocks rather than from owning safer asset classes.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Financials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Industrials 9%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Health Care 5%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology at 34%, with the rest spread across financials, consumer areas, industrials, telecoms, energy, and others. A tech weight around a third is higher than many global benchmarks, which tend to be moderately concentrated but not quite as tech‑heavy. That’s consistent with the Nasdaq‑100 allocation and helps explain the strong historical returns. The trade‑off: tech‑heavy portfolios can be more sensitive to interest rate changes, growth expectations, and sentiment cycles. On the positive side, other sectors are still present in meaningful sizes, so the portfolio is not a single‑sector bet; it just has a strong growth‑oriented tilt.
Regions
- North America 71%
- Europe Developed 11%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Japan 5%
- Asia Emerging 4%
- Australasia 1%
- Latin America 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 71% of the portfolio is in North America, with the rest split across Europe, developed Asia, Japan, and smaller slices in emerging regions. This is a clear US‑led profile, more concentrated in North America than a typical global market index, where the US is large but not quite this dominant. The dedicated international ETF helps bring in non‑US exposure, raising the diversification score and tying results to multiple economies and currencies. A strong US tilt has benefited from recent US outperformance, but it also means portfolio behavior is heavily linked to that single market’s cycle. Non‑US positions serve as a useful secondary growth engine.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 38%
- Large-cap 25%
- Small-cap 14%
- Micro-cap 12%
- Mid-cap 10%
Market‑cap exposure shows 38% in mega‑caps and 25% in large‑caps, with the remaining 37% across mid, small, and micro‑caps. This is more exposure to smaller companies than a standard global index, which is usually dominated by large and mega‑caps. Smaller firms often have higher growth potential but also more volatile share prices and more sensitivity to economic slowdowns. Here, the dedicated US small‑cap value ETF drives that tilt, creating a more “barbell” structure: very large, established names on one side and much smaller companies on the other. That mix can make returns more dynamic, with different size segments leading at different points in the cycle.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.77%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 3.18%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.23%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.17%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.58%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.47%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.47%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Top 10 total 20.79%
The look‑through view of ETF top‑10 holdings covers about 26.5% of the portfolio, so it’s a partial window into the underlying companies. Within that slice, there’s noticeable concentration in a few big US technology and consumer names such as NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. Several of these appear via more than one ETF, which creates hidden overlap: a stock can be owned indirectly in multiple places even if it doesn’t show as a single large position. Because only top‑10 ETF holdings are counted, the true overlap is likely higher. This kind of concentration means those mega‑cap names can meaningfully influence overall performance, especially during sharp market moves.
Factors
Factor exposure is broadly neutral across all six measured factors: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility. Factor investing looks at these characteristics as the “ingredients” behind returns. Scores around 50% for each factor indicate the portfolio behaves similarly to the overall market in these dimensions, rather than strongly tilting toward or away from any one style. That’s somewhat interesting given the clear growth, tech, and small‑cap accents elsewhere; at the factor level, they largely offset, producing a balanced profile. This suggests performance is likely to be driven more by market direction and specific holdings than by systematic factor bets.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 45.00% 50.5% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 25.00% 26.2% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 30.00% 23.3%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The Nasdaq‑100 ETF is 45% of assets but contributes about 51% of total risk, so it punches slightly above its weight in volatility. The small‑cap value ETF is 25% of assets and about 26% of risk, roughly proportional. The international ETF is 30% of assets but only 23% of risk, reflecting somewhat lower volatility and diversification benefits. All three positions together account for 100% of risk, with no hidden drivers beyond them. The main takeaway: Nasdaq‑100 behavior has an outsized impact on the portfolio’s ride.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares your current mix with all other combinations of these same three ETFs. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate, is 0.74 for the current portfolio. The maximum‑Sharpe mix scores 0.94 with somewhat higher return and slightly higher risk, while the minimum‑variance mix lowers risk and return with a Sharpe of 0.72. The note says the current portfolio is on or very close to the efficient frontier, meaning its risk/return tradeoff is already quite efficient given the available ingredients. Any further improvements would come from modest reweighting, not from fixing major inefficiencies.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.39%
The overall dividend yield is around 1.39%, combining a low‑yield Nasdaq‑100 ETF, a higher‑yield international ETF, and a moderate‑yield small‑cap value ETF. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, and here it’s a relatively small part of total return. That lines up with the growth‑oriented focus: more of the historical gain has come from price appreciation than from income. The stronger yield in international and small‑cap value balances the very low payouts from large US growth stocks, but this is still mainly a capital‑growth portfolio. Over time, reinvested dividends can modestly enhance compounding even when the headline yield is on the lower side.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%
Total ongoing costs, measured by Total Expense Ratio (TER), average about 0.14% per year across the three ETFs. TER is like a built‑in annual service fee the fund takes out before showing returns. This level is impressively low, especially for a globally diversified mix with a specialized small‑cap value sleeve. Low costs matter because they compound in your favor: every 0.1% not paid in fees is 0.1% that can stay invested and grow. The balance between a rock‑bottom‑cost international ETF and slightly higher‑priced, more focused US funds looks sensible and helps support the strong net historical performance seen in the data.
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