Tech obsessed US home bias with a secret small value side quest pretending to be diversification
Report created on May 21, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 15.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00%
This portfolio is basically the S&P 500 wearing a NASDAQ hoodie with small-cap value taped to the sides. Half the money sits in a plain vanilla S&P 500 fund, another fifth is a turbo-charged NASDAQ 100 slice, and the remaining 30% is in “spicy” small-cap value, split US and international. It looks diversified at a glance, but it’s really one big bet on US large growth with a secondary bet on small value trying to balance the mood swings. The structure screams “core plus satellite,” but the satellites are big enough to yank the whole thing around when markets get jumpy.
Growth
Historically, this thing has been on a heater: turning $1,000 into $2,450 and beating both US and global markets on CAGR. But that ride came with a near -25% max drawdown and a 9‑month slide that took over a year to claw back. That’s not “balanced,” that’s “hope you like watching red numbers for a while.” Also, 90% of returns came from just 30 days — classic “miss a few good days and you hate your life” behavior. Past data helps show the personality here, but it’s still yesterday’s weather, not a forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “Yeah, this might work out, but don’t get cocky.” Simulations put the median outcome at about $2,694 after 15 years — solid, but nowhere near the backward-looking 17%+ party you’ve been enjoying. Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of rolling the dice 1,000 times using past volatility and returns as a template, not a promise. The range from under $1,000 to over $7,500 screams one thing: the future is foggy, and this portfolio is fully signed up for that uncertainty.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes? What asset classes. This is 100% stocks, 0% anything else. That’s not asset allocation; that’s an equity monologue. A “balanced” label with no bonds, no cash cushion, no diversifiers is pretty optimistic branding. It’s like calling a pure hot sauce collection a balanced pantry. All‑stock portfolios can absolutely work long term, but they also specialize in big swings and “I thought I was okay with risk until now” moments. There’s no Plan B here, just a louder version of Plan A.
Sectors
- Technology 31%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Financials 12%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Energy 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, tech is very much the main character at 31%, with growthy consumer and communication names stacked on top via the S&P and especially the NASDAQ slice. The rest of the sectors exist mostly as background extras. This isn’t a quiet, broad-based sector profile; it’s a portfolio that lives and dies on innovation, ad spending, and chip cycles. When those areas win, it looks brilliant. When they don’t, the “balanced” label goes out the window and it behaves like a moody growth fund with a value subplot.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Japan 5%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this is “USA first, second, and third” with 86% in North America and only token appearances from Europe, Japan, and the rest of the world. The “international” in the small-cap value ETF is doing the entire non-US diversification job almost by itself. This is less a global portfolio and more a US portfolio with a souvenir shelf from overseas. It works great as long as the US keeps being the market’s main superhero. If other regions lead, this setup politely declines the invitation.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 34%
- Large-cap 24%
- Mid-cap 20%
- Small-cap 14%
- Micro-cap 7%
The market cap mix actually looks surprisingly reasonable on paper: plenty of mega and large caps up top, and a meaningful tail in mid, small, and even micro caps. But that’s mostly accidental math from bolting small-cap value onto a giant S&P/NASDAQ growth engine. The big dogs still run the show; small and micro caps just add extra noise and potential upside/downside without steering the overall direction. It’s like adding a mosh pit to the back of a stadium concert: more chaos, same headliner.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.68%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.49%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.58%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.15%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.09%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.71%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 27.27%
Look-through shows the usual suspects hogging the spotlight: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Tesla, Meta, Berkshire. The same big names repeat across both S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, meaning hidden overlap is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. You’re not just diversified across ETFs; you’re double‑dipping on the same megacap celebrities. And remember, this is only top‑10 data, so the actual overlap is almost certainly bigger. For a four‑fund portfolio, it’s amazing how much it still manages to revolve around a handful of giants.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing is shockingly normal. Value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low vol — everything sits in the “neutral” band, basically mimicking market averages. For a portfolio with chunky small-cap value slices and a big NASDAQ tilt, you’d expect some spicy factor profile, but instead it’s like someone blended growth and value until all the interesting edges got sanded off. On the plus side, that means fewer accidental extreme bets. On the minus side, the “secret sauce” is… kind of just sauce.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 47.3% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 23.7% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 16.7% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 12.2%
Risk contribution reveals the S&P 500 position as the main driver, providing about half the risk for half the weight — fair enough. The NASDAQ ETF, though, punches above its weight: 20% of the portfolio, almost 24% of the risk. That’s the drama queen slice. Even the US small-cap value chunk throws in slightly more risk than its share. The international small-value fund is the only one under-pulling on risk. Bottom line: three positions are responsible for nearly 88% of total risk, so diversification here is more cosmetic than structural.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier politely points out that this portfolio is leaving easy money on the table. At the current risk level, it sits about 1.44 percentage points below what could be achieved just by reweighting the same four funds. The Sharpe ratio of 0.8 versus 1.06 for the optimal mix is basically the chart saying, “Nice try, but this could be tighter.” The minimum-variance version even manages similar return with less risk. In other words, it’s not the ingredients that are the issue; it’s the recipe.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.80%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.20%
Income-wise, this setup isn’t exactly throwing off cash. A 1.2% overall yield is pocket change, heavily dragged down by the NASDAQ and S&P components that aren’t exactly dividend machines. The international small-cap value fund tries to lift the average with a decent yield, but it’s too small a slice to change the story. This is a growth-leaning portfolio pretending dividends are optional background noise. Anyone dreaming of meaningful cash flow from this mix is basically asking a sprinter to run a marathon.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.14%
Costs are where this portfolio quietly redeems itself. A total TER of 0.14% is impressively low for a setup that includes active-ish value ETFs and a NASDAQ tracker. The core S&P fund at 0.03% is doing charity work. You’re not lighting money on fire with fees here; if anything, you’ve lucked into institutional-level pricing with a bit of personality baked in. If only the rest of the portfolio were as cleanly optimized as the cost structure, the charts would have far fewer things to snark about.
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