Almost smart global indexer who discovered factor investing and then left returns on the table
Report created on Mar 25, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Balanced Investors
This setup suits someone who likes feeling responsible and slightly clever, but still wants to sleep at night. Think: global mindset, reasonably long time horizon, and enough risk tolerance to stomach -20% without immediately nuking everything. They’re curious about factor investing but not ready to go full nerd, so they dip in with a modest tilt rather than a radical overhaul. Short‑term noise doesn’t scare them much, but they’d still wince in a deep crash. They probably care about costs, hate overcomplication, and prefer one tidy all‑equity engine rather than a dozen moving parts — even if that means occasionally riding out some brutal drawdowns.
Positions
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Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF EUR
SC0H - IE00B60SX170 54.00% -
iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
IXUA - IE000R4ZNTN3 24.00% -
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
EMIM - IE00BKM4GZ66 12.00% -
Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
AVWS - IE0003R87OG3 10.00%
Structurally this thing is the Ikea bookshelf of portfolios: functional, mostly standard, with one spicy shelf bolted on sideways. About half is plain vanilla US large caps, a quarter is the rest of the developed world, a chunk is emerging markets, and then 10% is the “I read a blog once” allocation to global small cap value. For a so‑called balanced risk profile, it’s 100% stocks, so the label is lying harder than the marketing sheet. The overall setup screams “global market plus a nerdy twist,” but it also means when stocks puke, everything pukes together. If this is your “balanced,” your nerves better be too.
Historical data is limited for this portfolio, which reduces the confidence in the calculated values.
Growth
Over the tiny window from January 2025 to March 2026, this portfolio actually looks like it knows what it’s doing: +6.39% CAGR versus a sulking US market at -0.72% and global at +1.32%. A 6.1% gain from €1,000 to €1,061 while the benchmarks slogged is nice, but don’t break out the champagne yet. The max drawdown of -20.61% shows it still drops like a full‑equity portfolio during a tantrum. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is just your smoothed “average speed”; with less than two years of data, it’s more coin flip than prophecy. Past data here is yesterday’s weather, not a 10‑year forecast.
Due to limited historical data, this may show extreme values that are not realistic.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “The future could be great or disappointing, and we have charts to prove it.” Monte Carlo just means: take the past wobbles of this portfolio, shake them in a big digital dice cup, and simulate thousands of 10‑year paths. Median outcome? About +268% total return, 5th percentile still positive at +23%, and nearly all simulations ending above water. Annualized 10.99% across simulations is spicy for something with 100% stocks and only 288 days of actual history. Translation: the model is optimistic, but it’s extrapolating a short, lucky stretch. Treat this as vibes with math, not a contract with the universe.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes? Singular, actually. It’s 100% stocks. For a “balanced” profile, this is like ordering a mixed platter and getting only hot wings. No bonds, no cash buffer, no alternative anything — just a straight bet on global equities always eventually going up. That works brilliantly if you’ve got decades and iron stomach, but it’s brutal if you suddenly need money in a crash. Asset allocation is usually the main risk dial; here it’s snapped at max equity with a fake “4 out of 7” risk badge pretending this is moderate. If someone thought this was gentle, they didn’t read the label.
Sectors
- Technology 25%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 3%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this is a reasonably grown‑up portfolio with one clear obsession: Technology at 25%. Not full “tech addict needing an intervention,” but definitely the main character. Financials, industrials, cyclicals, and healthcare show up in respectable amounts, so it’s not a one‑trick pony. The rest are sprinkled in nicely: defensives, utilities, real estate — enough to not look like a single-theme fund. That said, a quarter in tech means you’re still signing up for “earnings season mood swings.” In a big tech selloff, this allocation won’t politely step aside; it’ll drag everything down like a leading actor in a bad sequel.
Regions
- North America 64%
- Europe Developed 15%
- Japan 6%
- Asia Developed 6%
- Asia Emerging 5%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this screams “US first, everyone else gets what’s left.” About 64% in North America, with Europe, Japan, and the rest of the world politely squeezed into the margins. It’s fairly close to global market reality, but still very much a “US is the main character” worldview. There is at least some love for emerging regions and smaller markets, which keeps it from being totally one‑eyed, but any serious US downturn will dominate your experience. The upside: you’re riding with the most liquid, well-known markets. The downside: you’re also trusting one country’s valuations, politics, and currency more than you probably think.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 3%
The market cap breakdown shows you mostly married to the big kids: 44% mega, 31% big, and then a polite nod to medium, small, and micro caps. That 10% tilt via the small cap value fund plus the extras give you some scrappy underdogs, but this is still a mega‑cap‑led show. You’re effectively saying, “I like factor investing… but only as a side quest.” When big money is flowing into giants, this rides the wave nicely; when small caps finally wake up, you get a modest boost instead of a full victory lap. It’s cautious factor dabbling, not a full conviction tilt.
True holdings
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Advanced Petrochemical Company 1.38%Part of fund(s):
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
-
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 0.61%Part of fund(s):
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
-
ASML Holding N.V. 0.53%Part of fund(s):
- iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
-
Tencent Holdings Ltd 0.40%Part of fund(s):
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
-
SK Hynix Inc 0.36%Part of fund(s):
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
-
Roche Holding AG 0.31%Part of fund(s):
- iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
-
AstraZeneca PLC 0.30%Part of fund(s):
- iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
-
Novartis AG 0.30%Part of fund(s):
- iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
-
HSBC Holdings PLC 0.30%Part of fund(s):
- iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
-
Nestlé S.A. 0.26%Part of fund(s):
- iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
- Top 10 total 4.76%
The look‑through is almost comically diversified at the company level: the top exposure is a random petrochemical name at 1.38%, then a nerdy mix of Samsung, ASML, Tencent, and the usual mega names all well below 1%. No single stock is the hero or the villain; everything is tiny slices of global capitalism. Overlap is clearly present but not outrageous — lots of similar big names showing up multiple times, but no one stock is secretly running the show. The catch: top‑10 lists only cover part of each ETF, so hidden duplication is probably higher than shown. Still, you’ve built the financial equivalent of a massive salad bowl, not a three‑stock meme smoothie.
Factors
Factor exposure is where things get spicy and slightly confused. Massive tilt to value (85% exposure) with momentum and size also flashing strongly. Factors are the hidden ingredients of returns — value, size, momentum, quality, low vol, yield, etc. Here you’ve built “cheap, smaller, recent winners” as the secret recipe, which can be powerful… or chaotic. Value plus momentum is like driving fast in a discounted sports car: fun when roads are clear, ugly when conditions flip. The catch: signal coverage is only 33%, so this picture is half-finished. Still, it looks like an accidental smart-beta nerd: lots of style, not necessarily fully understood.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF EUR
Weight: 54.00% 59.6% -
iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
Weight: 24.00% 20.1% -
Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
Weight: 10.00% 11.0% -
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS
Weight: 12.00% 9.4%
Risk contribution reveals who’s actually shaking the portfolio, not just who’s heavy on the scale. Your US ETF at 54% weight is doing 59.6% of the risk lifting; the small cap value at 10% is punching in perfectly at 11%; the rest lag a bit. Top three positions account for over 90% of total risk, so don’t kid yourself — this is effectively a three‑engine plane. That’s normal for a compact ETF portfolio, but it means tweaking those three changes everything, while fiddling with smaller bits is cosmetic. If you ever worry about volatility, start by resizing the biggest risk hogs, not hunting for tiny fringe positions to “fix it.”
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
The risk vs. return picture is where this portfolio quietly trips over its own shoelaces. With a Sharpe ratio of 0.28, it’s trudging well below the efficient frontier, while an optimal mix of the *same* holdings clocks a Sharpe of 1.21. Efficient frontier just means “best possible risk/return combo given these ingredients.” You’ve basically bought great ingredients and then cooked a very average meal. Even the minimum variance mix promises far better returns at slightly lower risk than your current weights. Reweighting — not adding anything new — could massively improve efficiency. Right now, you’re accepting more risk for less payoff than the math says you need to.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF EUR 0.05%
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS 0.18%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are hilariously low. A total TER around 0.05% is basically theft — but you’re the thief, in a good way. You’re paying index‑fund pennies for global exposure and a factor tilt that many fancy products would happily overcharge for. It does slightly ruin the roasting opportunity, because there’s nothing dumb to criticize here. Fees are under control to the point where any further optimization is just entertainment. The only caution: low cost doesn’t fix bad structure, it just means you’re making mistakes cheaply if the rest of the design is off. But on fees alone, you somehow clicked all the right buttons.
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