A closet indexer with a small cap kink a bitcoin habit and a full blown Nvidia crush
Report created on Mar 17, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 55.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 15.00% -
IB iShares Bitcoin Trust
IBIT - US46438F1012 5.00% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 5.00%
This setup is basically “S&P 500 with personality issues.” Over half sits in a plain S&P index, then you bolt on a chunky 20% small‑cap value satellite, some international for respectability, and then jam 10% into Bitcoin and a single stock that’s already in your ETFs. That’s not diversification, that’s layering the same themes with extra drama. Compared with a vanilla 60/40 or global equity index, this is more concentrated, more volatile, and more tech‑tilted than it pretends. Tighten the structure: either embrace being a simple broad‑market portfolio, or build a deliberate satellite sleeve with position size limits and clear roles.
Growth
A 20.75% CAGR is the kind of number that makes people think they’re investing geniuses when they’re mostly surfing a great decade. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is just “average yearly speed” over a roller coaster ride. Meanwhile, a max drawdown of -20.4% is suspiciously mild for a portfolio with Bitcoin and Nvidia front and center; you’ve basically only seen this thing in mostly good weather. Against broad equity benchmarks, that return is hot, but it rode the same winners (US mega‑cap tech) with extra spice. Treat that history as lucky tailwind, not a promise. Build expectations around “normal” equity returns, not the backtest highlight reel.
Projection
The Monte Carlo outputs are hilariously optimistic: median result +3,402%, top scenarios pushing near +5,800%. Monte Carlo is just a nerdy dice roll, running thousands of random future return paths based on past stats. It’s useful, but if the inputs are spicy, the outputs become fantasy fanfic. A 35.56% annualized return across simulations is not a forecast, it’s a red flag that the assumptions are drenched in recent boom data. Past data is like yesterday’s weather: good reference, terrible prophecy. Use these projections as a reminder that the range of outcomes is wide, then sanity‑check your life plans on something closer to boring single‑digit to low‑teens equity returns.
Asset classes
- Stocks 94%
- Crypto 5%
- Cash 1%
Asset‑class mix: 94% stocks, 5% crypto, 1% cash. So despite being labeled “Balanced,” this is not balanced; it’s basically an all‑equity engine with a Bitcoin turbocharger and no real brakes. No bonds, no meaningful cash buffer, nothing that behaves differently when stocks throw a tantrum. In a crash, this doesn’t hedge; it just goes down at slightly varied speeds. Asset classes are like food groups: living on protein and caffeine works…until it doesn’t. If the goal is long‑term growth and you can handle deep drawdowns, fine. If not, consider adding a boring stabilizer sleeve that actually ziggs when equities and crypto zag.
Sectors
- Technology 27%
- Financials 15%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Industrials 10%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 6%
- Crypto 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this is a tech‑and‑friends party: 27% technology, plus communication services and consumer cyclicals packed with pseudo‑tech platforms. Financials, industrials, energy and others show up, but they’re supporting cast. Relative to a broad global index, you’re heavier on growthy, rate‑sensitive stuff that tends to shine when the story is innovation and cheap money, and suffer when markets rediscover boring cash flow. Sector tilts can be smart if intentional; here they look like “own the index” plus “overweight what’s been hot.” Dial back single‑name bets and let sector exposure be driven by broad, diversified holdings rather than doubling down on what already dominates the benchmarks.
Regions
- North America 80%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Australasia 1%
- Latin America 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geography: 80% North America, token everything else. This is basically “America plus a handful of foreign postcards.” International sits at 15% and gets drowned out by US exposure from the S&P 500 and your small‑cap value fund. Home bias is normal, but this is home clinginess. Compared with global market weights, you’re underexposed to Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, which means you’re betting heavily on the US continuing to dominate earnings, innovation, and valuations. Nothing wrong with a US tilt if that’s the conviction, but call it what it is: a concentrated regional bet. If you want real diversification, boost non‑US to a level that actually matters.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 37%
- Large-cap 24%
- Mid-cap 13%
- Small-cap 12%
- Micro-cap 9%
Market‑cap spread is one of the few things that looks intentionally thoughtful: 37% mega, 24% big, 13% mid, 12% small, 9% micro. So yes, there’s a clear “I like smaller, cheaper stuff” vibe. But that small/micro slice, driven by the Avantis small cap value fund, is still equity beta on steroids: higher volatility, more cyclical, and often uglier drawdowns. Pair that with mega‑cap tech darlings and you’ve built a barbell between “market‑dominant giants” and “scrappy little punchers,” skipping the calmer, middle‑aged companies. If that’s the goal, cool—just make sure the overall equity share and small‑cap weight match a stomach that can handle multi‑year underperformance.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.31%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BT Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) 5.00%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Bitcoin Trust
-
AA Apple Inc 3.56%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.97%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.16%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.83%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.46%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.45%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.45%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 30.31%
The look‑through data screams one thing: Nvidia is the main character here, whether that was on purpose or not. You’ve got 5% directly, plus its presence in your ETFs brings total exposure to 9.31%. That’s not a tilt; that’s a crush. Same with big tech generally: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla all pile in through the S&P and total international. Look‑through means lifting the hood on ETFs to see what you *actually* own, not just ticker symbols. Right now, that underlying overlap says “growthy US tech plus extra Nvidia and Bitcoin.” Cap individual name exposure (including via ETFs) to avoid one earnings call rewriting your net worth.
Factors
Factor profile: heavy tilts to value (72%), size (68%), and so‑called quality (100%, with laughably low coverage), plus decent low‑vol (62.6%) and momentum (54%). Factors are the hidden flavors—value, size, momentum, etc.—that explain why returns zig the way they do. Here, the data is noisy (average signal coverage only 42.5%), so treat these numbers as “vibes,” not gospel. Still, small‑cap value plus Nvidia plus Bitcoin is a weird combo of “disciplined factor investor” and “YOLO side quest.” Leaning into value and size can work long term, but expect long droughts. Make sure the riskier factor bets are deliberate, not just a side effect of chasing what backtests well.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 55.00% 49.2% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 21.8% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 10.5% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 5.00% 10.1% -
iShares Bitcoin Trust
Weight: 5.00% 8.4%
Risk contribution reveals who’s actually rocking the boat, not just who’s biggest on paper. The S&P 500 ETF is 55% weight and ~49% of risk—expected. Small cap value is 20% weight, ~22% of risk—also fine. Then Nvidia: 5% weight, over 10% of total risk. That tiny diva is doing double its weight in drama. Bitcoin is similar: 5% weight, 8.4% risk share. Top three positions drive 81.5% of portfolio risk, which is a polite way of saying the other holdings are mostly decoration. Set a sanity check on single‑name and speculative exposures, trimming positions whose risk‑to‑weight ratios are screaming “overachiever in the worst way.”
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On risk–return efficiency, this thing is trying hard but leaving money on the table. The optimization output basically says: for the same risk, a better‑built portfolio could earn more, and the so‑called “optimal” mix does exactly that at similar volatility. “Efficient frontier” is the nerd term for the best possible trade‑off between risk and return—this portfolio is standing a bit to the left of it, taking hits without fully getting paid. The culprits are obvious: concentrated single‑name bets and overlapping growth/tech exposure that doesn’t add much diversification. Streamline: fewer redundant positions, more balanced factor and geographic exposure, and less hero worship of Nvidia and Bitcoin.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.80%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 3.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.43%
Total yield around 1.43% is pocket change; this setup is clearly growth‑first, income‑later. The international fund is pulling most of that weight with ~3.1% yield, while the S&P and small cap value drip a little on top. Dividend yield is just the cash paid out as a percentage of price—nice for steady income, but not the main story here. If the plan is living off this in the near term, that low yield means relying heavily on selling shares, which is fine but emotionally tougher in a crash. For a long horizon, reinvesting those modest dividends into the same broad holdings keeps the compounding machine running.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- iShares Bitcoin Trust 0.12%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Costs are almost suspiciously reasonable: blended TER of 0.08% is “did you click the cheapest button on purpose?” territory. Vanguard at 0.03–0.05% and Avantis at 0.25% are all acceptable, and even the Bitcoin vehicle at 0.12% is tame compared with many crypto products. Fees are the one area where this setup doesn’t self‑sabotage. However, low cost doesn’t automatically mean smart design—owning cheap vehicles in a needlessly concentrated, volatile structure is like getting a great deal on gas for a car with no brakes. Keep using low‑fee building blocks, but spend more time on overall portfolio construction than celebrating basis‑point trophies.
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