Momentum tilted US growth portfolio with strong tech exposure and moderate diversification across sizes and regions

Report created on May 30, 2026

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is a focused equity mix built entirely from factor and index ETFs. About 53% sits in US large-cap factor funds (momentum and quality), 23% in mid-cap factor ETFs, 25% in small-cap value and international value funds, and 15% in a dedicated technology index ETF. That structure creates a clear tilt toward US growth and factor strategies rather than a plain broad-market index. This matters because factor ETFs can behave differently from standard benchmarks, especially in stressed markets. The blend of momentum, quality, tech, and small-cap value suggests a deliberate attempt to combine different “styles” of return, which can sometimes offset each other but can also line up in the same direction during strong booms or sharp reversals.

Growth Info

From late 2021 to May 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,131, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.73%. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year, smoothing out the bumps. Over the same period, the US market returned 14.33% and the global market 12.27%, so this mix outpaced both by a meaningful margin. The worst peak‑to‑trough drop was about -24.5%, very similar to the US market’s drawdown. That means the extra return came without noticeably deeper losses, though there was an 11‑month slide and 14‑month recovery. Only 23 days produced 90% of gains, underlining how missing a few strong days can dramatically change outcomes.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection uses the portfolio’s past ups and downs as raw material to simulate 1,000 different 15‑year futures. Think of it as running many “what if” market histories, each slightly different. The median simulated outcome for $1,000 is about $2,822, with a middle band from roughly $1,813 to $4,224. The full 5–95% range stretches from almost no real growth to very strong compounding. The average simulated annual return is 8.12%, and about three‑quarters of paths end with a positive result. These are not predictions; they simply show a range of plausible paths if volatility and return patterns roughly resemble the past, which is never guaranteed.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. That creates a very clear growth‑oriented profile: returns are driven completely by equity markets, with no built‑in cushion from safer assets. This can be powerful in long bull markets, but it also means the full impact of equity drawdowns flows straight through to the portfolio value. Compared with a more mixed asset allocation, this structure typically shows higher volatility and deeper temporary losses, but also higher long‑run return potential. The lack of other asset classes is not inherently good or bad; it simply makes equity risk the dominant driver of the experience here.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    39%
  • Industrials
    17%
  • Financials
    11%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    6%
  • Energy
    5%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Basic Materials
    5%
  • Telecommunications
    4%
  • Utilities
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector exposure is notably tilted toward technology at 39%, well above broad global benchmarks, while industrials (17%) and financials (11%) are the next largest groups. More defensive areas such as utilities and real estate are tiny at 1% each. This pattern fits with the presence of a dedicated tech ETF and momentum/quality screens, which often pull in fast‑growing, asset‑light companies. A tech‑heavy mix can benefit strongly in periods of innovation, falling interest rates, or enthusiasm for growth themes, but may be more sensitive when rates rise or when markets rotate toward more cyclical or defensive sectors. The balanced presence of industrials and financials adds some diversity but doesn’t fully offset the tech emphasis.

Regions Info

  • North America
    86%
  • Europe Developed
    8%
  • Japan
    4%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically, the portfolio is anchored in North America at 86%, with modest allocations to developed Europe (8%) and Japan (4%), and small slices to Australasia, Latin America, and Africa/Middle East. That means most risk is tied to one major economy and currency, even though the underlying companies may operate globally. Compared with world equity benchmarks, this is a stronger home‑country tilt toward the US. Such a tilt has helped in the last decade, when US stocks outperformed many regions, but it also means outcomes remain heavily influenced by US market cycles, policy, and sector trends. The intentional use of international large and small value funds does, however, introduce some non‑US diversification.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    33%
  • Mega-cap
    24%
  • Mid-cap
    22%
  • Small-cap
    16%
  • Micro-cap
    5%

Market capitalization exposure is spread across the spectrum: 24% mega‑cap, 33% large‑cap, 22% mid‑cap, 16% small‑cap, and 5% micro‑cap. Mega and large companies still dominate, but there is a meaningful tilt into mid and small stocks through the Avantis and Invesco mid/small products. Smaller companies tend to be more volatile and sensitive to economic swings but can offer stronger long‑term growth when conditions favor them. Larger firms usually provide more stability and liquidity. This blend creates a multi‑cap profile that is broader than a pure large‑cap index, giving the portfolio additional drivers of return beyond the biggest household names, while still keeping most of the weight in established businesses.

True holdings Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    4.92%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Apple Inc
    3.23%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
  • Micron Technology Inc
    2.66%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Broadcom Inc
    2.43%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Lam Research Corp
    2.05%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc
    1.43%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Microsoft Corporation
    1.37%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    1.26%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Cisco Systems Inc
    1.18%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
  • Intel Corporation
    1.13%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Top 10 total 21.66%

Looking through ETF top holdings, a handful of big tech and semiconductor names show up repeatedly. NVIDIA is the largest single exposure at about 4.92% of the portfolio, followed by Apple at 3.23%, and Micron at 2.66%. Broadcom, Lam Research, AMD, Microsoft, Alphabet, Cisco, and Intel each sit around 1–2%. Because these names appear in multiple ETFs, the “true” exposure is higher than it might look from any one fund’s weight. This overlap creates hidden concentration: several positions are all sensitive to similar themes like chips, cloud, and big‑tech profitability. Note that this analysis only uses top‑10 ETF positions, so total overlap is likely understated.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
High
Data availability: 100%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposure shows a clear tilt toward momentum at 61%, while value, size, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit in the neutral band around market averages. Factors are like investing “flavors” — characteristics such as cheapness (value), trend strength (momentum), or stability (low volatility) that research has linked to returns over time. A high momentum tilt means the portfolio currently leans into stocks that have been recent winners. This can amplify performance in strong, trending markets, as seen in the historical outperformance, but it may also increase sensitivity when trends reverse sharply and prior winners fall out of favor. The roughly neutral exposure to other factors keeps the overall profile from becoming extreme.

Risk contribution Info

  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    Weight: 25.00%
    25.1%
  • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF
    Weight: 15.00%
    19.2%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
    Weight: 20.00%
    17.5%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
    Weight: 10.00%
    10.6%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
    Weight: 8.00%
    8.8%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 81.2%

Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. The S&P 500 Momentum ETF, at 25% weight, contributes about 25% of total risk, so it’s roughly proportionate. The tech ETF, though only 15% by weight, contributes over 19% of risk (risk/weight ratio 1.28), reflecting its higher volatility and correlation with other growth holdings. The top three holdings together account for about 62% of portfolio risk, more than their combined weight. This means portfolio behavior is heavily shaped by those large, growth‑tilted US equity positions, while smaller allocations play a more modest role in day‑to‑day swings.

Redundant positions Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
    Avantis International Large Cap
    High correlation

The correlation data highlights that the Avantis international small‑cap value ETF and the Avantis international large‑cap ETF have moved almost identically in the measurement period. Correlation measures how similarly two assets move; values near 1 mean they often go up and down together. When holdings are highly correlated, they may not provide much diversification benefit during stress, even if they look different on paper. In this case, both international value funds are tapping into similar regions and styles, so they behave closely alike. That’s not necessarily a problem, but it does mean that, within the international sleeve, there’s effectively one main pattern of return rather than multiple distinct return streams.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The efficient frontier analysis compares the current mix with the best possible combinations of these same holdings. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.77, while the optimal mix using only these ETFs reaches 1.12, and the minimum‑variance mix scores 0.87. The Sharpe ratio is a simple way to measure risk‑adjusted return: higher means more return per unit of volatility, relative to a 4% risk‑free rate. Being about 3.3 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level suggests that, historically, different weights among the same funds could have delivered either higher returns for similar risk or similar returns with less volatility, without adding or removing holdings.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.70%
  • Avantis International Large Cap 2.80%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
  • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF 0.30%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF 1.10%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Quality ETF 0.60%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.60%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.07%

The portfolio’s total dividend yield is about 1.07%, which is modest for an all‑equity mix. Higher yields come mainly from the Avantis international large and small value ETFs, both around 2.7–2.8%, while the tech and momentum funds sit closer to or below 1%. Dividends are the cash payouts companies make from profits, and they can be an important part of long‑term returns, especially when reinvested. Here, most of the return profile is coming from price movement and growth rather than income. That aligns with the growth‑ and factor‑focused design, where companies often reinvest earnings instead of distributing them as dividends.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
  • Avantis International Large Cap 0.25%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Fidelity® MSCI Information Technology Index ETF 0.08%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF 0.15%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Quality ETF 0.25%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.34%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.19%

The blended total expense ratio (TER) for the portfolio is about 0.19% per year, which is impressively low for a multi‑ETF, factor‑tilted approach. TER is the annual fee charged by each fund, expressed as a percentage of the amount invested, and it quietly chips away at returns over time. Costs range from 0.08% for the Fidelity tech ETF to around 0.34–0.36% for some factor funds, but the overall average stays well below many actively managed strategies. Keeping costs this contained supports better long‑term compounding, since every 0.1% saved in fees is 0.1% that can keep working for the portfolio year after year.

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