This portfolio is characterized by a significant allocation to US equities, with 40% in Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF and another 40% in Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF, complemented by a 20% investment in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares. This composition underscores a growth-oriented strategy with a higher risk tolerance, given the substantial emphasis on small-cap value and momentum stocks, alongside a moderate international exposure to diversify and potentially mitigate risk.
Historically, the portfolio has demonstrated a strong performance with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.37%. The maximum drawdown of -37.78% indicates periods of significant volatility, likely due to the high concentration in growth-oriented assets. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 18.0 days highlight the portfolio's susceptibility to short-term market movements, emphasizing the importance of a long-term investment horizon to navigate through volatility.
Monte Carlo simulations, using historical data to project potential outcomes, suggest a wide range of future portfolio values. With key percentiles at 43.9% (5th), 622.4% (50th), and 958.8% (67th), the simulations indicate a high probability of positive returns (975 out of 1,000 simulations). However, it's crucial to remember that these projections are not guarantees but rather hypothetical scenarios based on past performance.
The portfolio's asset allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks (99%), with a minimal cash holding (1%). This allocation is consistent with its growth profile and high risk score of 5 out of 7. While this setup is poised for potential high returns, it also exposes the portfolio to market volatility, underscoring the need for a robust risk tolerance.
Sector allocation reveals a diversified mix, led by Financial Services (24%), Consumer Cyclicals (15%), Technology (14%), and Industrials (14%). This sectoral distribution supports the portfolio's growth objective, leveraging sectors that typically offer higher growth potential. However, the concentration in these sectors also means higher sensitivity to economic cycles, suggesting the investor should be prepared for fluctuations.
Geographic allocation shows a heavy bias towards North America (81%), with modest exposure to developed Europe (8%) and emerging Asia (3%). This distribution reflects a strong home country bias, which while common, may limit global diversification benefits. Expanding international exposure could help mitigate some of the portfolio's geographical risks.
The market capitalization breakdown reveals a balanced approach, with allocations across mega (30%), micro (21%), big (20%), small (19%), and medium (8%) cap stocks. This diversified cap-size exposure is beneficial for spreading risk and capturing growth across different segments of the market, from stable, large companies to more volatile, smaller firms.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's current allocation suggests a well-considered approach to balancing risk and return, potentially near the Efficient Frontier, where the risk-return trade-off is optimized. However, ongoing review and adjustments are essential to maintain this balance, especially in response to changing market conditions and personal financial goals.
The portfolio generates a total dividend yield of 1.48%, with the highest yield from the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares at 2.80%. While dividends contribute to the portfolio's total return, the primary focus appears to be on capital appreciation given the growth orientation and the relatively modest overall yield.
With a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.16%, the portfolio benefits from relatively low costs, which is commendable. Lower costs directly enhance long-term returns by reducing the drag on performance. The investor has done well in selecting cost-efficient ETFs, aligning with best practices for maximizing investment efficiency.
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