A growth tilted stock only portfolio with strong US focus and impressively low ongoing investment costs

Report created on Nov 3, 2024

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is almost entirely made of broad stock ETFs, with a big tilt toward large US companies through the main core holding and a sizable slice in a major tech heavy index. Smaller allocations to small caps, value, developed ex US, emerging markets, and dividends round things out. Compared with a typical balanced benchmark that mixes stocks and bonds, this setup is clearly more growth oriented and more volatile, even though it’s labeled “balanced.” This structure is powerful for long horizons, but it leans heavily on stock markets doing well. Someone wanting smoother ups and downs might consider gradually mixing in some defensive assets to better match a true balanced profile.

Growth Info

Historically, a 15.65% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) means that $10,000 growing at that pace would roughly become about $42,000 over 10 years, assuming a smooth path. That’s a very strong equity style result and suggests the mix has captured broad market growth plus a tech and US tilt boost. The max drawdown of about -26% indicates that in rough patches, a $10,000 balance could have dropped to around $7,400 before recovering, which is milder than pure aggressive equity at times but still emotionally challenging. It’s important to remember that past numbers only show what did happen, not what must happen next, especially after long strong bull runs.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo analysis takes historical return and volatility patterns and then simulates many random future paths, like rolling dice 1,000 times for a long investing journey. The median outcome of roughly 451% suggests that $10,000 could land around $55,000 in a typical simulation, while the 5th percentile around 76% means a tough scenario where $10,000 ends near $17,600. An average simulated annualized return near 14.7% is very strong, but it’s still based on history, which may not repeat. This tool is best seen as a rough weather forecast, not a promise, and should be paired with realistic expectations about lower future returns.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All assets here are stocks, with 0% in cash and 0% in other asset classes. For growth seekers, this is very intentional: stocks historically offer higher long term returns than bonds or cash, at the cost of sharper ups and downs. Compared with a truly balanced benchmark that might be 60% stocks and 40% bonds, this is more like a growth or even aggressive equity mix. The upside is strong long run compounding; the downside is deeper drawdowns and more volatility, especially during recessions. If stability, income, or shorter term needs matter, layering in a small slice of lower volatility assets over time could smooth the ride without fully changing the core philosophy.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    35%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    12%
  • Financials
    11%
  • Telecommunications
    10%
  • Industrials
    8%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Energy
    4%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%

The sector mix is tech heavy at 35%, followed by consumer cyclicals, financials, and communications; the rest are smaller but still present. This aligns closely with current US index weights, so it’s not an extreme outlier, but the added NASDAQ exposure increases sensitivity to growth and tech names. Tech heavy portfolios can do brilliantly when innovation and low interest rates drive valuations, but they can swing hard when rates rise or sentiment turns. On the positive side, this sector spread still covers all major parts of the economy, which is a strong sign of diversification. If big tech ever stumbles, though, the overall portfolio will likely feel it more than a neutral sector mix.

Regions Info

  • North America
    90%
  • Europe Developed
    4%
  • Asia Emerging
    2%
  • Japan
    1%
  • Asia Developed
    1%

Geographically, about 90% is in North America, with only modest exposure to Europe, Japan, and emerging Asia. That’s a clear home bias toward the US, which has actually been a winning tilt over the last decade or so. Compared with global benchmarks, which might have closer to 55–60% in the US, this is significantly overweight. The benefit is alignment with familiar markets, strong institutions, and many world leading companies. The trade off is that if US stocks underperform other regions for a stretch, the portfolio won’t fully benefit from overseas strength. Gradually nudging up non US exposure could enhance diversification without dramatically changing the character of the holdings.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    40%
  • Large-cap
    30%
  • Mid-cap
    16%
  • Small-cap
    8%
  • Micro-cap
    5%

Market cap exposure is anchored in mega and big companies (about 70% combined), with meaningful positions in mid, small, and even micro caps. This is actually a nice strength: it mirrors core index exposure but layers in extra small cap and small cap value, which historically have sometimes offered higher returns, though with bumpier rides. Larger companies usually provide stability and liquidity, while smaller ones contribute more volatility and potential upside. This blend helps spread risk across company sizes instead of betting only on giants. If volatility ever feels too intense, trimming the smallest company slice slightly and leaning more into large and mid caps can soften swings while keeping a growth orientation intact.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

From a risk versus return standpoint, the current mix sits on the aggressive side of the stock only Efficient Frontier. The Efficient Frontier is a curve showing the best possible risk return tradeoffs using the existing ingredients by simply changing the percentages between them. Efficiency here means the most return for a given level of volatility, not necessarily the safest or the most diversified. Within just these ETFs, slight shifts between large cap growth, small cap value, international, and dividend tilts could potentially produce either a bit more expected return for similar risk, or similar return for slightly less risk. It’s worth stress testing different mixes while remembering that any optimization relies on historical data that may not repeat.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.80%
  • Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 1.30%
  • Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.25%

The total yield of around 1.25% is modest, reflecting a growth oriented stock mix with a tech tilt. One ETF focused on dividend payers boosts the income a bit, while international and small cap value holdings add incremental yield as well. Dividends can be helpful for investors who like seeing regular cash flow or who reinvest for compounding, but in this setup, the main engine is clearly price growth rather than income. This is very much in line with many modern equity index portfolios. Someone prioritizing cash flow later on might gradually increase higher yielding pieces over time, while still keeping the overall structure aligned with long term growth goals.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%

The total TER (Total Expense Ratio) of about 0.08% is impressively low and a major strength. TER is basically the annual management fee baked into each fund; the lower it is, the more of the portfolio’s return you keep. This level of cost is well below many actively managed options and strongly supports long term performance, especially over decades where even small fee differences can compound to big dollar amounts. The slightly higher fee on the small cap value ETF is still very reasonable for the exposure it provides. Staying disciplined about low costs, avoiding frequent trading, and minimizing other frictions keeps more of the growth in your pocket.

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