Highly concentrated US stock portfolio with strong technology tilt and moderate factor and risk balance
Report created on May 9, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
FX Fidelity 500 Index Fund
FXAIX - US3159117502 80.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 10.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 10.00%
This portfolio is a very focused three-fund mix, with 80% in a broad US large-cap index and 20% in more specialized US equity ETFs. The core position tracks a wide set of big US companies, while the two smaller slices lean into growth-heavy and momentum-driven stocks. Because everything is in stocks, and almost all exposure comes from one core fund, the structure is straightforward and easy to understand. That simplicity makes it clear where returns and risks are coming from: mostly the US stock market overall, with an extra push from growth and momentum themes. The trade-off is that there’s little diversification beyond that specific equity universe.
Growth
Over the period from late 2020 to early 2026, $1,000 grew to about $2,343, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) near 16.6%. CAGR is like average speed on a long road trip: it smooths out the bumps to show steady pace. This beat both the US and global market benchmarks by a modest margin, while having a similar maximum drawdown of about -25%. That drawdown took roughly nine months to bottom and fifteen to recover, illustrating how equity setbacks can last more than a year. Also, 90% of returns came from just 28 days, showing how a handful of strong days can heavily shape long-term results.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses 1,000 simulations based on historical patterns to estimate where $1,000 might end up after 15 years. Think of it as rerunning history many different ways to see a range of plausible futures, not a prediction. The median scenario lands around $2,878, with a “middle” range from roughly $1,822 to $4,417. Extreme paths stretch from about $995 to over $8,100, showing that outcomes can vary widely. The average simulated annual return is about 8.4%, but this assumes markets behave broadly like the past. Real future returns can be higher or lower, especially if economic conditions change.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is invested in stocks, with no bonds, cash, or alternative assets in the mix. That makes the asset allocation very simple and clear: returns and risks both move with the equity market, especially US large-cap companies. Stocks historically offer higher long-term growth potential than bonds, but with larger short-term ups and downs. Compared with many diversified mixes that combine stocks and bonds, this portfolio leans more toward growth potential than downside cushioning. The balanced risk label mainly reflects being focused on broad large-cap indices rather than including safer income-oriented assets that might soften equity volatility.
Sectors
- Technology 37%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Financials 11%
- Health Care 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
Sector exposure is heavily tilted toward technology at 37%, with telecoms and financials each around 11%, and health care and industrials making up much of the rest. This tech weight is meaningfully higher than broad US market norms, which typically sit closer to the high-20s for technology. Tech-heavy portfolios can benefit when innovation and growth stocks are in favor, but they can swing more when interest rates rise or sentiment shifts away from high-growth names. The smaller weights in more defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples mean less built-in ballast if high-growth areas face a rough patch.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely anchored in North America, with 99% exposure there. This lines up closely with its use of US-focused funds and means performance is tied primarily to the US economy, corporate earnings, and dollar movements. Compared with global benchmarks that spread more across Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, this is a clearly home-biased setup. That can work well when US markets outperform, as they have for meaningful stretches in recent history. The flip side is that shocks specific to the US—economic, political, or regulatory—would affect nearly the whole portfolio at once rather than being cushioned by other regions.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 1%
Most holdings are in the largest companies, with about 46% in mega-caps and 37% in large-caps, plus a smaller slice in mid- and tiny exposure to small-caps. This pattern is quite similar to standard US large-cap index structures, where the biggest firms dominate index weight. Large, established companies often have more diversified businesses and stronger balance sheets, which can offer some stability compared to small, more speculative firms. However, this also means less direct exposure to potential high-growth smaller names. The overall size mix supports smoother behavior than an aggressively small-cap-heavy portfolio, but may lean more on the fortunes of a relatively small group of giants.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 1.71%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.14%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 0.93%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 0.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 0.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 0.51%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 0.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.33%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Top 10 total 8.14%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, several big names show up, including NVIDIA, Alphabet (both share classes), Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla. These repeated appearances create hidden concentration: the same company can be held via multiple funds even if the portfolio itself only has three positions. For example, NVIDIA alone makes up around 1.7% of the total exposure just from the top-10 slices observed. Because only the top 10 ETF holdings are captured and coverage is under 10%, actual overlap is likely higher. This is typical for US index plus growth-tilted ETF mixes but still means performance is partly driven by a shared group of mega-cap leaders.
Factors
Factor exposure is relatively close to market-like across the board, with most readings in the “neutral” zone. Factor exposure describes tilts to traits like value, momentum, and quality that research links to returns, like ingredients in a recipe. Yield exposure is on the low side, reflecting the focus on growthier companies that pay smaller dividends. Size exposure is also somewhat low, consistent with the emphasis on large- and mega-caps rather than smaller firms. Momentum and quality both sit near neutral, suggesting no strong tilt toward past winners or especially stable companies. Overall, the factor profile is balanced, with just a mild lean away from high-dividend and smaller stocks.
Risk contribution
-
Fidelity 500 Index Fund
Weight: 80.00% 77.5% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 10.00% 12.3% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. Here, the 80% core index fund contributes about 78% of total risk, almost exactly in line with its size. The NASDAQ 100 ETF, at 10% weight, adds over 12% of risk, meaning it punches a bit above its weight due to its growth-heavy, more volatile profile. The momentum ETF’s risk share roughly matches its allocation. With all three holdings contributing 100% of risk and no single fund wildly out of line, risk is concentrated but proportionate to position sizes, especially around that central S&P 500 index stake.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests that, using only these three holdings, different weightings could improve the balance between risk and return. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.75, which measures risk-adjusted return like miles per gallon for investing. The optimal mix on this frontier has a higher Sharpe of 1.01, and even the minimum-variance combination scores 0.91. The current setup sits about 1.05 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level. That means, purely mathematically, there are other combinations of the same funds that would have delivered either similar returns with less risk or higher returns for a similar risk level historically.
Dividends
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 1.10%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.99%
The overall dividend yield is just under 1%, with the broad S&P 500 index fund at about 1.1% and the two growth- and momentum-tilted ETFs paying even less. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of investment value, like interest from stocks. This relatively low yield fits with the emphasis on large US growth companies, which often reinvest profits instead of distributing them. In this portfolio, income from dividends is a smaller component of total return; most of the historical growth has come from price changes. For investors tracking cash flow, it’s worth noting that this structure focuses more on capital appreciation than ongoing income.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 0.02%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Portfolio costs are impressively low, with a blended total expense ratio (TER) of around 0.04% per year. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, taken directly out of returns, similar to a small service charge. The core index fund is extremely cheap at 0.02%, and even the more specialized ETFs are reasonably priced at 0.13–0.15%. These low costs align well with best practices for passive investing and help more of the portfolio’s gross returns show up in net performance over time. Over many years, this cost advantage can compound meaningfully compared with higher-fee approaches targeting similar areas of the market.
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