This portfolio is primarily composed of equity ETFs, with a significant 55% allocation to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, reflecting a strong bias towards large-cap US equities. The remaining allocations are diversified across international equities, US small-cap value stocks, and US mid-cap momentum stocks. This structure suggests a growth-oriented strategy with an attempt at moderate diversification across geographies and market capitalizations. The portfolio's diversification is somewhat limited by its heavy reliance on US markets and large-cap stocks.
Historically, this portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.11%, with a maximum drawdown of -36.49%. These figures indicate a relatively high growth trajectory, albeit with significant volatility. The days contributing most to returns are few, underscoring the portfolio's susceptibility to market swings. The historical performance, while impressive, should be viewed with caution as past success does not guarantee future results, especially in a volatile market environment.
Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations, which project future performance based on historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of outcomes. The median projection suggests substantial growth, but the variance between the 5th and 67th percentiles is considerable, indicating a high risk level. While these simulations can offer insights, they're inherently uncertain and should be used as one of many tools in decision-making.
The portfolio is entirely allocated to stocks, lacking exposure to bonds, cash, or other asset classes. This allocation supports a growth-focused strategy but increases volatility and risk, particularly in down markets. Diversifying across different asset classes can provide a buffer against stock market fluctuations and reduce portfolio volatility.
Sector allocation leans heavily towards technology and financial services, making up 40% of the portfolio. This concentration in high-growth but volatile sectors can lead to above-average gains during bull markets and significant losses during downturns. A more balanced sector distribution could mitigate risk while still offering growth opportunities.
Geographically, the portfolio is predominantly invested in North America (81%), with limited exposure to developed markets in Europe and Japan. The negligible presence in emerging markets and other developed regions may limit global diversification benefits and exposure to global growth trends. Increasing allocations to underrepresented regions could enhance returns and reduce geographical risk.
The market capitalization breakdown reveals a balanced mix, though with a leaning towards larger companies. This balance supports diversification across different company sizes, but the emphasis on mega and big caps suggests a conservative tilt within an otherwise growth-oriented strategy. Adjusting allocations towards smaller caps may offer higher growth potential, albeit with increased risk.
The portfolio contains highly correlated assets, particularly between the Avantis® International Equity ETF and the Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF. This redundancy may limit diversification benefits. Identifying and reducing overlapping exposures can enhance portfolio efficiency by lowering risk without sacrificing potential returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's risk-return profile may benefit from optimization by addressing the high correlation between certain assets. Utilizing the Efficient Frontier concept could identify an asset mix that offers the highest expected return for a given level of risk. This approach encourages diversification not just across assets but also strategies, potentially enhancing the portfolio's overall risk-adjusted performance.
The portfolio's dividend yield averages 1.58%, with the highest yield from the Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF at 3.70%. While dividends contribute to total returns, the portfolio's focus seems to be on capital appreciation rather than income generation. Investors seeking higher income might consider increasing allocations to higher-yielding assets.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) averages to 0.14%, indicating efficient cost management. Lower costs contribute to higher net returns over time, making this an attractive feature of the portfolio. Continuously monitoring and minimizing investment costs remains crucial for maximizing long-term growth.
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