Concentrated US growth and tech portfolio with strong past gains but elevated volatility and single stock risk
Report created on May 8, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
QQ Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ - US46090E1038 20.00% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 10.00%
This portfolio is built entirely from US equities, combining three broad ETFs with a single large individual stock. About half sits in a core S&P 500 ETF, with sizable slices in a small cap value fund and a tech-heavy growth ETF. A 10% direct position in NVIDIA adds an extra concentrated bet on one company. Having everything in stocks and mostly in one country gives strong exposure to equity growth, but also means portfolio swings closely follow equity market ups and downs. The separate NVIDIA holding, on top of its presence in the ETFs, increases stock-specific risk beyond what headline weights alone suggest.
Growth
Over the period shown, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $7,111, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.74%. CAGR is like an average yearly “speed” over the full journey, smoothing out the bumps. This clearly outpaced both the US and global market benchmarks, which grew at 16.09% and 13.55% per year. The trade-off was a deep max drawdown of -37.33%, meaning the portfolio once fell over a third from peak to trough. It also took 8 months to fully recover. The strong outperformance reflects heavy exposure to high-flying growth and tech, but also highlights how painful downturns can feel.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many simulated paths, based on historical return and volatility patterns, to estimate where $1,000 might end up after 15 years. It’s a bit like running 1,000 different “what if” market histories. Here, the median outcome is $2,781, with a central range of roughly $1,774 to $4,158. Extreme but still plausible paths stretch from about flat to more than seven times the starting value. The average simulated annual return is 7.99%, but individual paths vary widely. As with any model, this relies on the past being a rough guide to the future, which may not hold if market conditions or leadership change meaningfully.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in one asset class: equities. There is no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternatives. That makes the portfolio highly responsive to stock market moves, which helps when markets are rising but can be uncomfortable in broad sell-offs. In contrast, many broad “market” portfolios blend in other assets that historically move differently from stocks, softening drawdowns. The single-asset focus explains both the aggressive risk rating and the low diversification score. The benefit is simplicity and pure equity participation; the trade-off is that any equity bear market is felt directly across the entire portfolio.
Sectors
- Technology 39%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Health Care 6%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans hard into technology, which makes up about 39% of exposure, well above typical broad-market levels. Other sectors like financials and consumer discretionary are each around 11%, with smaller slices across industrials, health care, energy, staples, and others. A tech-heavy stance has been a big tailwind during periods of strong innovation and low interest rates, helping explain the powerful historical returns. The flip side is that tech and related growth sectors often react sharply to changing rate expectations or regulatory pressures, so sector swings can significantly drive overall portfolio volatility, especially when combined with a big NVIDIA position.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in North America, with about 99% exposure and only a token allocation to developed Europe. Many global equity benchmarks spread more across regions, reflecting economic activity worldwide. A strong US tilt has been rewarding over the last decade, as US large-cap growth and tech led global markets. However, this also means the portfolio’s fortunes are tied closely to one economy, one policy environment, and one currency. If other regions outperform or if the US experiences a period of relative underperformance, this strong home bias could lead to larger differences versus global indices.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 44%
- Large-cap 24%
- Mid-cap 12%
- Small-cap 11%
- Micro-cap 9%
By market capitalization, this portfolio spans the full spectrum but still favors the largest companies. Around 44% sits in mega-caps and 24% in large-caps, with the rest spread across mid, small, and micro-caps. That means a good portion of risk and return comes from very big, well-known firms, while the small and micro-cap slice introduces more idiosyncratic company-level behavior. Smaller companies can be more volatile but sometimes move differently from the giants, adding another source of diversification within equities. The mix is more large-cap tilted than a pure small-cap strategy, yet clearly more size-balanced than a mega-cap-only approach.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.75%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.92%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.75%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.62%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 36.95%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings shows a key pattern: NVIDIA appears both as a direct 10% holding and inside the funds, bringing total exposure to about 15.47%. That’s a notable single-stock concentration, especially given NVIDIA’s historical volatility. Other large positions like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are held only through ETFs but still reach meaningful combined weights. Because only top-10 ETF holdings are included, actual overlap is likely higher than reported. This “hidden” concentration means the portfolio is more sensitive to a handful of big US growth names than the ETF tickers and surface weights alone might suggest.
Factors
Factor exposure scores here are broadly neutral across the six classic factors: value, size, momentum, quality, low volatility, and yield. A neutral reading means the portfolio behaves roughly like the broad equity market on these dimensions, rather than strongly leaning into or away from any particular style. For example, there isn’t a distinct value tilt or a pronounced low-volatility posture. This is interesting given the presence of a small-cap value ETF and a growth-heavy QQQ allocation; overall, they effectively offset each other at the aggregate level. As a result, performance is more driven by sector and stock-level concentration than by systematic factor tilts.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 42.5% -
Invesco QQQ Trust
Weight: 20.00% 20.0% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 19.9% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 10.00% 17.7%
Risk contribution measures how much each holding adds to total portfolio ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The S&P 500 ETF is half the portfolio but contributes about 42.47% of risk, slightly less than proportional. QQQ and the small-cap value ETF each weigh 20% and contribute roughly 20% of risk, very proportional. NVIDIA stands out: a 10% weight drives about 17.67% of total risk, giving it a risk/weight ratio of 1.77. That means this single stock has a much louder “voice” in overall volatility than its size implies, underscoring the portfolio’s concentrated exposure to one highly dynamic company.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares this portfolio’s risk/return mix with what could be achieved by just reweighting the existing holdings. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.86, below the optimal Sharpe of 1.36 available from a different blend of the same assets, and sits about 1.23 percentage points under the frontier at its risk level. A higher Sharpe means more return per unit of volatility. This gap suggests the mix is aggressive but not fully efficient from a risk-adjusted perspective. Importantly, the model indicates that changing only position sizes—not adding new securities—could bring it closer to the frontier.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.89%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is relatively modest at about 0.89%, with the highest-yielding component being the small-cap value ETF at 1.30%. Yield represents the cash income from dividends as a percentage of the investment value. Here, most of the expected return historically and in projections comes from price appreciation rather than income. That’s consistent with a growth and tech-oriented equity mix. While dividends can provide a smoother return component and some cushion in flat markets, this portfolio is clearly geared more toward capital gains potential, which tends to make the ride more dependent on market sentiment and earnings growth.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.20%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.10%
Total ongoing fund costs are low, with a blended Total Expense Ratio (TER) of around 0.10%. TER is the annual fee taken by the ETFs, expressed as a percentage of assets, and it quietly chips away at returns over time. This level is impressively low compared with many active funds and even some passive alternatives, leaving more of the portfolio’s gross performance in investors’ hands. The lowest-cost piece is the S&P 500 ETF at 0.03%, while the small-cap value ETF is the most expensive at 0.25%, reflecting its more specialized strategy. Overall, the fee structure is a notable strength of this portfolio.
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