This portfolio is heavily weighted towards the S&P 500, with 80% of its composition in direct S&P 500 index investments through a combination of ETFs and a mutual fund. The remaining 20% is allocated across four income-focused ETFs, aiming to enhance yield. However, this concentration in similar assets and sectors, primarily within the U.S., indicates a low level of diversification. While the strategy may align with a balanced risk profile seeking steady returns and income, it lacks exposure to international markets and alternative asset classes, which could offer broader diversification benefits.
With a historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.65% and a maximum drawdown of -18.47%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong performance. However, it's important to note that a significant portion of returns came from a few specific days, highlighting potential volatility and the impact of timing in the market. The reliance on a narrow range of assets, primarily U.S. equities, may have contributed to this volatility. Diversifying across a wider range of assets and geographies could potentially smooth returns over time.
The Monte Carlo analysis, simulating 1,000 different market scenarios, suggests a wide range of potential future outcomes, from a 226.3% to a 1,088.4% increase in portfolio value at key percentiles. This underscores the uncertainty inherent in investing, particularly with a portfolio concentrated in a single asset class. Diversifying across different asset classes and geographies could help mitigate some of this uncertainty by reducing the portfolio's sensitivity to the performance of the U.S. equity market alone.
The portfolio's asset allocation is almost entirely in stocks (98%), with a negligible percentage not classified. This heavy concentration in equities, while beneficial during bull markets, exposes the portfolio to significant risk during market downturns. Introducing fixed-income securities, real estate, or commodities could offer non-correlated returns, reducing overall volatility and improving the risk-return profile.
Sector allocation is concentrated in technology, financial services, and communication services, mirroring the sector composition of the S&P 500. While this concentration has likely contributed to the portfolio's strong historical performance, it also increases vulnerability to sector-specific downturns. Broadening sector exposure, especially to underrepresented areas like utilities or real estate, could provide additional stability and income.
Geographic exposure is overwhelmingly North American (99%), with minimal exposure to developed European markets. This U.S. centric approach limits potential gains from global economic growth and diversification. Increasing exposure to emerging markets and other developed regions could capture growth opportunities outside the U.S. and reduce geographic concentration risk.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega and big-cap stocks, which are typically less volatile than smaller companies. However, this focus may limit growth potential offered by mid and small-cap stocks, known for their ability to outperform larger companies over long periods. Incorporating a broader range of market caps could enhance returns while adding moderate risk.
The high correlation among the portfolio's assets, especially between the S&P 500 ETF, the Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund, and the income-focused ETFs, suggests redundancy. This redundancy does not contribute to diversification and may increase the portfolio's risk without a corresponding increase in expected return. Reducing overlap by selecting assets with lower correlations could improve diversification and risk management.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Given the portfolio's heavy reliance on highly correlated assets, there's a clear opportunity for optimization. By reallocating towards less correlated assets, the portfolio could achieve a more efficient risk-return profile on the Efficient Frontier. This would involve reducing exposure to overlapping S&P 500 investments in favor of assets offering true diversification benefits.
The inclusion of high-income ETFs boosts the portfolio's overall dividend yield to 3.24%, enhancing its income-generating potential. However, focusing solely on yield could expose the portfolio to higher-risk assets. Balancing high-yield investments with growth-oriented assets could improve the long-term growth potential while maintaining a steady income stream.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) of 0.12% is relatively low, benefiting long-term growth by minimizing costs. The wide range in individual expense ratios, from 0.02% to 0.68%, highlights the importance of cost awareness in fund selection. Continuously monitoring and optimizing for cost-efficiency, particularly among the higher-cost funds, could further enhance net returns.
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