Highly concentrated US stock portfolio with strong historic returns and a big tilt toward technology
Report created on Apr 21, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 80.00% -
VG Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
VGT - US92204A7028 20.00%
This portfolio is built from just two broad stock ETFs: a total US stock market fund at 80% and a focused technology fund at 20%. That means every dollar is in equities and almost all of it in the same underlying market, with one fund layering extra tech exposure on top of the already diversified core. Structurally, this is simple and easy to understand, but the small number of holdings means diversification relies entirely on the breadth inside those ETFs. The core fund provides wide coverage, while the satellite tech fund concentrates risk and potential upside in one area, creating a “core plus tilt” structure that is common in growth‑oriented setups.
Growth
From 2016 to 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $4,545, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.42%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps to show steady yearly progress. Over this period, the portfolio beat both the broad US market by 1.60% per year and the global market by 4.21% per year, which is a notable outperformance. The worst peak‑to‑trough drop was about -34.23% during early 2020, similar to major benchmarks. That shows the portfolio captured strong upside but still experienced deep, fast drawdowns when markets fell, which is normal for stock‑heavy mixes.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks at many possible futures by “replaying” thousands of random market paths based on historical behavior. It doesn’t predict a single outcome; instead it produces a range. Here, the median 15‑year outcome for $1,000 is around $2,754, with a middle band (25th–75th percentile) from about $1,794 to $4,139. In other words, many simulations grow meaningfully, but some barely break even and a few do extremely well. Overall, 74.1% of paths end positive, with an average simulated annual return of 7.95%. This kind of modeling is useful for setting expectations, but it still relies on the past, which can differ from future markets.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. That’s straightforward: the portfolio is fully exposed to equity market ups and downs. A 100% equity mix tends to have higher long‑term return potential than adding bonds or cash, but it also usually comes with sharper swings, especially during recessions or crises. Compared with typical blended benchmarks that include bonds, this portfolio leans much more toward growth and volatility. The asset‑class choice is very clear and focused, and it means most of the risk and reward will be driven by how the stock market performs overall, rather than by income or capital‑preservation assets.
Sectors
- Technology 45%
- Financials 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
Sector‑wise, this portfolio is dominated by technology at about 45%, with the rest spread across financials, health care, industrials, consumer areas, telecoms, and smaller slices in energy, utilities, real estate, and materials. A broad market index alone would usually have a lower technology share, so the extra tech ETF clearly pushes that weight up. Tech‑heavy portfolios can benefit strongly when innovation and growth names lead the market, as they have in recent years. The flip side is that they may feel more pressure if interest rates rise or if sentiment turns against high‑growth companies, since a large chunk of the portfolio is exposed to the same type of economic story.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, about 99% of the portfolio is in North America, effectively making this a pure US‑centric equity mix. That aligns closely with the fact both ETFs focus on the US market, so it’s consistent by design. Compared with a global benchmark that mixes US and international stocks, this is a clear home‑country tilt. When the US market outperforms the rest of the world, this concentration can look very strong, as it has over the last decade. But it also ties the portfolio heavily to the fortunes of a single economy, currency, and policy environment, rather than spreading exposure across multiple regions and economic cycles.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 43%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 7%
- Micro-cap 2%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is skewed toward bigger companies: around 43% in mega‑caps and 30% in large‑caps, with the rest in mid, small, and micro‑caps. That pattern is similar to a typical broad US index, where the giants dominate by size. Larger companies tend to be more stable and diversified businesses, which can reduce idiosyncratic risk compared with a portfolio full of small names. At the same time, the presence of mid and smaller caps (about 27% combined) means there is still some exposure to companies that may behave differently over the cycle. Overall, the size mix looks broadly in line with market‑weighted norms rather than tilted strongly to tiny firms.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.83%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 7.91%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 5.54%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.74%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.56%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.13%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.69%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.09%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 35.39%
Looking through to the top underlying holdings, a big share of risk is tied up in a handful of very large companies like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Amazon, and Alphabet. For example, NVIDIA alone accounts for about 8.83% of the portfolio via the ETFs, and Apple nearly 7.91%, even though you don’t hold them directly. Several of these appear in both ETFs, so there is overlap that boosts their effective weight. Because only top‑10 ETF holdings are captured, true overlap is likely higher. This creates “hidden concentration,” where a diversified ETF mix still ends up depending heavily on the performance of a small group of mega‑cap leaders.
Factors
Across the main investment factors — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility — this portfolio shows neutral exposures, sitting around the 40–60% “market‑like” range for each. Factor exposure is basically how much a portfolio leans into specific characteristics, like favoring cheap stocks (value) or recent winners (momentum). Here, there are no strong tilts toward or away from any factor, meaning behavior is expected to track the broad market’s style mix rather than a specialized factor strategy. That balanced profile can be helpful if you want returns that mainly reflect the overall equity market instead of being driven by one particular investing style.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 80.00% 75.6% -
Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 24.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. In this case, the total US stock ETF is 80% of the portfolio and contributes about 75.64% of risk, while the tech ETF is 20% of weight but 24.36% of risk. That higher risk‑to‑weight ratio for the tech ETF (1.22 vs 0.95) signals it is more volatile than the core fund and punches above its size in terms of impact. The structure is still dominated by the broad market ETF, but the tech sleeve amplifies swings more than its 20% share might first suggest.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares your current mix with the best possible risk‑return combinations using only these two ETFs. Here, the portfolio sits on or very near the efficient frontier, which means the current weighting is already an efficient balance of risk and expected return given these building blocks. The current Sharpe ratio — a measure of return per unit of risk — is 0.66, while the maximum Sharpe mix from these same funds reaches 0.9 but with higher volatility. There’s also a minimum‑variance point with slightly lower risk and a Sharpe of 0.77. So within this two‑ETF universe, the chosen allocation is doing its job efficiently.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.88%
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is about 0.88%, with the core total market ETF yielding around 1.10%. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the investment value, like interest on a savings account but variable. This level of yield is modest and typical for a growth‑leaning, US‑equity‑focused mix, especially with a large tech allocation where many companies reinvest profits instead of paying high dividends. That means most of the portfolio’s return historically and going forward is likely to come from price changes rather than income. For investors tracking income, yields here are more of a bonus than a primary feature.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Portfolio costs are impressively low, with a blended total expense ratio (TER) around 0.04%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, taken directly from their assets, a bit like a small maintenance cost. This level of cost is well below many actively managed funds and aligns with best‑in‑class index pricing. Over long periods, every fraction of a percent saved in fees can compound into a meaningful difference in ending wealth. In this case, the cost structure supports the portfolio’s growth focus rather than dragging on returns, and it’s a strong point of the overall setup.
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