Roast mode 🔥

A supposedly balanced portfolio that is actually an S&P 500 fan club with a tiny safety net

Report created on Dec 19, 2025

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

1/5
Single-Focused
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is basically one big S&P 500 shrine with a little Treasury ornament slapped on top. Ninety percent in a single broad US stock ETF and ten percent in ultra-short Treasuries is not “balanced”; it’s “I like stocks and I also like sleeping at night… a bit.” The label says “single-focused” and for once the label is brutally honest. Compared with common balanced setups that might mix stocks, bonds, and maybe some global flavor, this is all-in on one engine. A more rounded mix of growth, stability, and true diversifiers would make this look less like a one-trick pony in a nice suit.

Growth Info

Historically, this thing has been on a heater. A 15.98% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate = your average speed on a long, bumpy road trip) is spicy. If someone tossed in $10,000 a decade ago, it would have grown to a very smug number versus a more typical 60/40 portfolio. But the max drawdown of -22.9% is the reminder that gravity still works. Benchmarks with more bonds would’ve dropped less in nasty markets, even if they grew slower. Past data is like yesterday’s weather: helpful, but it won’t apologize when the next storm shows up.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo analysis — basically a thousand “what if the market went nuts in different ways” simulations — paints a mostly optimistic picture. Median outcome around 281.7% and a 10.56% annualized return is strong, but the 5th percentile at 78.2% says the bad-luck version of you might end up barely growing or even treading water after inflation. Also, 995 out of 1,000 positive scenarios sounds comforting until you remember simulations are polite guesses, not guarantees. If the goal is long-term compounding with fewer panic attacks, mixing in assets that behave differently than US stocks could make those downside paths less ugly.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    90%
  • Cash
    10%

Asset classes here are “stocks” and “a cash-ish ETF,” and that’s the list. With 90% in stocks and effectively 10% in near-cash Treasuries, it’s more like a slightly padded equity portfolio than a true mix of growth, income, and stability. Bonds at 0% means no real shock absorbers when markets decide to swan dive. Think of bonds as the car’s suspension: you don’t notice them when roads are smooth, but you really miss them when you hit a crater. Adding some proper duration bonds or other defensive assets could make the ride less neck-snapping when volatility spikes.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    33%
  • Financials
    11%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    10%
  • Telecommunications
    9%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Industrials
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%
  • Basic Materials
    1%

Sector mix is basically “S&P diet”: tech-heavy and US-centric. Technology at 33% screams “If growth stumbles, so do we.” Financials, consumer cyclicals, and communications pile on more economic sensitivity, so when the cycle turns, a big chunk of this thing catches the flu at the same time. Defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare are here, but playing backup singer, not lead. Compared with broad indexes, it’s almost identical — which is the point — but that also means it inherits all their blind spots. Leaning slightly more toward sectors that don’t live and die on growth vibes could smooth outcomes when sentiment flips.

Regions Info

  • North America
    90%

Geography summary: “North America is the world, right?” With 90% in North America and basically zero elsewhere, this is America-or-bust energy. That’s fine as long as US markets keep being the teacher’s pet, but global leadership rotates over decades. Relying on one region is like only ever betting on one sports team — fun when they’re winning, brutal when they choke. A bit of international exposure spreads political, currency, and economic risk, even if foreign markets have been the disappointment child lately. Past decade: USA crushed it. Next decade: unknown. The rest of the world does occasionally show up to work.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    42%
  • Large-cap
    31%
  • Mid-cap
    16%
  • Small-cap
    1%

Market cap is tilted almost entirely to the giants: 42% mega, 31% big, 16% medium, 1% small. This is the “I only trust the popular kids” approach. Mega-caps are stable-ish until sentiment on a few tech or consumer names changes and your portfolio suddenly moves like a single stock with better branding. Tiny small-cap position means missing out on a potential long-term growth engine, but you do dodge some extra chaos. A more deliberate balance between big, mid, and small could diversify return drivers instead of letting a handful of mega-caps decide your mood every quarter.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

Risk versus return here is almost willfully lopsided. For a “balanced” risk profile, this looks more like a turbocharged equity core with a 10% security blanket. Efficiency in portfolio terms means getting the most return for each unit of risk, not chasing the biggest number and hoping pain is optional. Your historic returns have been great, but the drawdowns and heavy reliance on one market suggest you’re not sitting on the efficient frontier; you’re camped on the “hope US mega-cap growth never stumbles” frontier. Adding true diversifiers — more bonds, some global exposure, maybe uncorrelated assets — could move this closer to a saner risk-reward mix.

Dividends Info

  • iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 3.80%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.37%

Dividend yield at 1.37% is basically “just enough to notice, not enough to live off.” The Treasuries bring in short-term yield at 3.8%, while the S&P ETF drips out around 1.1%. This setup is clearly built for growth, not for paying the bills. Relying on this for meaningful income would be like trying to fund a vacation by cashing in loose change. If future needs include steady cash flow — retirement, for example — gradually raising the share of more income-focused assets could help. For now, this is a reinvest-and-grow machine, not an “income investor” masterpiece.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 0.07%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

Costs are the one thing here that are suspiciously sensible. A total TER of around 0.03% is basically investing on hard mode for the fund companies and easy mode for you. You accidentally did the right thing clicking on ultra-low-cost ETFs. While fees are nailed, it doesn’t excuse the lack of broader diversification or real risk balancing — cheap concentration is still concentration. Still, keeping costs microscopic means more of the returns actually stay in the portfolio, which sets a solid foundation. The next step is fixing the structure so the cheap ride doesn’t go off the rails in a bad bear market.

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