Strongly momentum tilted stock portfolio with heavy US technology exposure and efficient risk return profile
Report created on Jun 14, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 90.16% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 9.84%
This portfolio is very concentrated, with just two equity ETFs making up 100% of the holdings. Around 90% sits in a US large-cap momentum fund, while roughly 10% is in an international small-cap value fund. So almost all the behavior is driven by one core holding, with a small satellite position adding a different style and region. This kind of “core-plus-satellite” structure keeps things simple to follow, but it also means individual fund design matters a lot. The mix combines a growthy, fast-moving style with a more contrarian, value-tilted slice, creating an interesting blend of characteristics without adding much product complexity.
Growth
One or more local-currency benchmark funds are unavailable for this report.
Over the period from late 2019, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $3,905, giving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.57%. CAGR is like the average yearly “cruising speed” of your money over the whole journey. This comfortably beat the global market benchmark’s 13.76% CAGR over the same time. The worst peak-to-trough drop was about -31.8%, similar in depth to the benchmark’s drawdown but with a quicker recovery. Only 32 days made up 90% of total returns, showing performance was driven by a relatively small set of strong days, a pattern often seen in momentum-heavy portfolios.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which means the system takes past return and volatility patterns, scrambles them into thousands of random “what if” paths, and sees where a $1,000 investment might end up. The median 15‑year outcome is about $2,768, with a wide but realistic middle range between roughly $1,834 and $4,429. That spread shows how uncertain long-term outcomes can be, even with the same underlying strategy. The average annualized return across all simulations, about 8.17%, is much lower than the recent historical CAGR, highlighting that strong backtested results do not guarantee similar future gains.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is invested in stocks, with no bonds, cash, or alternative assets. That creates a very clear risk profile: returns are driven entirely by equity markets, without stabilizers that might cushion falls. A 100% equity mix can experience sharp swings, both up and down, especially over shorter periods. Compared with broader multi-asset benchmarks that blend in bonds and cash, this portfolio is structurally more volatile but also has more room for long-term growth from company earnings. The pure-equity structure makes it easy to understand where risk and return come from: corporate profits, market sentiment, and equity valuations.
Sectors
- Technology 50%
- Industrials 13%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Financials 7%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology at about 50%, with the rest spread across industrials, telecoms, financials, health care, consumer-oriented sectors, energy, materials, utilities, and real estate. This tech emphasis is meaningfully higher than in many broad market indices, where technology is important but usually not half the pie. A sector tilt like this can boost returns when innovation-driven businesses are leading markets, but it can also amplify losses in periods when interest rates rise or when investors rotate toward more defensive, slower-growth areas. The remaining sectors do add some diversification, but tech clearly dominates the story here.
Regions
- North America 91%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, about 91% of the portfolio sits in North America, with only small allocations to developed Europe, Japan, Australasia, and Africa/Middle East. That’s a stronger North American tilt than global equity benchmarks, where the US is big but not quite this dominant. This concentration means portfolio performance will be heavily influenced by US economic conditions, policy decisions, and currency movements. The smaller non-US allocation does introduce some global diversification, especially through international small caps, but the overall behavior will still track North American markets closely, especially during major market moves or region-specific shocks.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 46%
- Mega-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 4%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans strongly toward large and mega caps, which together make up around 81% of exposure. Mid caps account for most of the rest, with a relatively small slice in small caps. Large and mega companies tend to be more established and widely researched, which can mean more stability and liquidity than smaller names, though they still move sharply in equity downturns. The mid- and small-cap presence, largely from the international value ETF, adds some extra diversification and a different return pattern. Overall, this structure is reasonably aligned with broad equity benchmarks that are naturally weighted toward bigger companies.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 9.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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AV Broadcom Inc 5.89%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 4.07%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 3.67%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 3.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 3.25%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 2.71%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 2.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 46.57%
Looking through the top holdings, a handful of individual companies represent sizable implicit bets. Micron, NVIDIA, and Broadcom together account for over 23% of the portfolio, with other large positions in Alphabet (both share classes), Johnson & Johnson, Lam Research, AMD, Intel, and Exxon Mobil. These come entirely through ETFs, not direct stock picks, but they still drive a big share of risk and return. There is also some overlap, such as owning both Alphabet A and C shares, which increases exposure to that underlying business. Because only ETF top-10s are used, actual overlap and concentration are likely a bit higher than shown.
Factors
On factor exposure, this portfolio shows a notably high tilt to momentum at 71%, meaning it leans toward stocks that have done well recently. Factor exposure is like measuring how much your holdings share certain traits—value, size, momentum, quality, yield, or low volatility—that research links to returns. The size score of 36% indicates a mild tilt away from smaller companies, consistent with the large/mega-cap focus. Value, quality, and low volatility sit around neutral, while yield is modestly low at 33%, in line with a growthier profile. High momentum can help in strong, trending markets but tends to be more painful when trends abruptly reverse.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 90.16% 93.6% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 9.84% 6.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the S&P 500 momentum ETF is about 90% of the weight but contributes roughly 94% of total risk, slightly more than its size alone might suggest. The international small-cap value ETF, at about 10% weight, contributes only 6% of risk, reflecting its smaller role and somewhat diversifying behavior. This means the portfolio’s volatility and drawdowns will largely follow the path of the main momentum fund. Position sizing is therefore highly concentrated, even though technically there are two different strategies in play.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests the current mix is already very close to optimal given the two chosen funds. The Sharpe ratio—a measure of return earned per unit of risk above the risk-free rate—is 0.86 for the current portfolio and 1.0 for the mathematically “optimal” version using the same ingredients. The system also identifies a minimum-variance mix with slightly lower risk and return. Because the portfolio sits on or very near the efficient frontier, the allocation is using these two holdings in a risk/return-efficient way. Any big changes in behavior would mainly come from introducing different assets, not just tweaking weights.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 4.10%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.03%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.03%, with the international small-cap value ETF yielding around 4.1% and the momentum ETF about 0.7%. Yield is simply the annual cash payout as a percentage of the current value. In this mix, most of the income comes from the smaller, value-tilted international slice, while the dominant momentum holding is focused more on price appreciation than dividends. That means total return is likely to be driven more by capital growth than by regular income. For investors tracking cash flows, it’s useful to see that income here is modest and concentrated in one of the two positions.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.15%
Total ongoing fund costs are low, with a weighted TER (Total Expense Ratio) of roughly 0.15% per year. TER is the annual fee charged by each fund, expressed as a percentage of assets, and it quietly reduces returns in the background. The main momentum ETF is particularly cheap at 0.13%, while the smaller international small-cap value ETF is higher at 0.36% but still within a reasonable range for its niche. Overall, these costs are impressively low for a concentrated, factor-tilted equity portfolio. Keeping fees down leaves more of any future returns in the portfolio, which compounds meaningfully over long horizons.
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