Concentrated US equity portfolio focused on large cap momentum and broad market exposure

Report created on Dec 12, 2025

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

The portfolio is a simple two‑ETF split with 50% in a momentum tilted S&P 500 ETF and 50% in a total US market ETF creating a pure US equity exposure. This structure concentrates risk in a single asset class and blends a rules‑based large cap tilt with broad market coverage. Notable here is the heavy overlap between the two ETFs which increases single‑market and single‑factor exposure relative to multi‑asset or geographic benchmarks. Recommendation: consider whether the intended exposure is to US equities specifically and if so accept concentration or diversify across asset classes to reduce idiosyncratic and market risk.

Growth Info

Using a hypothetical $10,000 initial investment the reported CAGR of 19.82% means the portfolio grew at an average compound annual rate — CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth Rate that smooths returns like an average speed over a road trip. Max drawdown of -32.93% shows peak loss during a downturn and highlights downside risk. Compared to broad global balanced benchmarks this US equity only pairing will likely outperform in strong US markets but underperform during global or US market weakness. Recommendation: set expectations for large swings and plan rebalance or cash buffers to handle drawdowns.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling of historical return patterns to project many possible end values; it is a probabilistic tool not a prediction. Here 1,000 simulations produced a median outcome of 1,188.9% and a 5th percentile of 257.4%, showing wide dispersion driven by equity volatility. Monte Carlo is useful for gauging range of outcomes but depends heavily on historical inputs and assumptions which may not hold in the future. Recommendation: use these percentiles to inform planning ranges and stress tests rather than exact forecasts and revisit assumptions regularly.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All capital is allocated to equities at 100% leaving zero in fixed income or cash which dramatically shapes risk and return. Asset class diversification reduces volatility and provides different drivers of return; having only equities means the portfolio will track economic cycles closely. Compared to typical balanced or diversified benchmark mixes this is far more growth‑oriented and less defensive. Recommendation: if the investor needs lower volatility or capital preservation, introduce a non‑equity sleeve such as bonds or cash alternatives to smooth returns and provide liquidity during equity drawdowns.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    35%
  • Financials
    17%
  • Telecommunications
    12%
  • Industrials
    9%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    8%
  • Health Care
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Utilities
    3%
  • Energy
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%
  • Basic Materials
    1%

Sector weights show a clear technology tilt at 35% followed by financials and communication services which together create sector concentration relative to broad benchmarks where tech is a large but usually smaller share. Sector concentration can amplify volatility when specific industries face stress — for example technology sensitivity to interest rates or regulatory shifts. Recommendation: decide if the sector tilt is intentional for higher growth or an inadvertent byproduct of ETF overlap and consider adjustments if a more balanced sector exposure is desired to reduce single‑industry shocks.

Regions Info

  • North America
    100%

Geographic exposure is 100% North America which simplifies currency and political risk but sacrifices international diversification benefits. Geographic diversification smooths returns when regions cycle differently; being fully US‑focused increases dependence on the US economic cycle and market leadership. Compared to global benchmarks this is an overweight to one region. Recommendation: if reducing home‑country concentration is a goal, introduce international developed and/or emerging market exposure to capture different growth drivers and reduce country‑specific risk.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    42%
  • Large-cap
    37%
  • Mid-cap
    16%
  • Small-cap
    3%
  • Micro-cap
    1%

Market‑cap segmentation is weighted heavily toward mega and large caps (about 79% combined) with moderate mid‑cap and small cap exposure. Large caps tend to offer greater liquidity and lower volatility while smaller caps often provide higher growth potential but more risk. This bias toward large caps supports stability relative to small cap heavy mixes but may miss some higher return opportunities. Recommendation: consider whether the current tilt matches the tolerance for growth versus volatility and add a modest small‑ or mid‑cap sleeve if the objective includes capturing smaller company alpha.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

Efficient Frontier optimization finds the set of weightings among the current assets that offers the highest expected return for each level of risk; the Efficient Frontier is a visualization of optimal risk‑return tradeoffs using historical return and volatility estimates. Here optimization is constrained to the two available ETFs so "efficiency" only rearranges the split between them. Recommendation: use optimization outcomes as a guide but recognize limits — adding additional uncorrelated asset classes expands the frontier and may yield better risk‑return combinations than reweighting within the current two‑ETF universe.

Dividends Info

  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.60%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.85%

The blended dividend yield is 0.85% which contributes modestly to total return and can provide income stability during periods of low capital appreciation; dividend yield is the annual cash return expressed as a percentage of price. For a growth‑oriented equity portfolio this yield is typical and not a primary return driver. Recommendation: if income generation is a goal consider increasing allocation to higher yield strategies or dividend focused funds, but balance that with potential tradeoffs in growth and valuation risk.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%

The portfolio TER (Total Expense Ratio) aggregates to 0.08% which is impressively low and supports better net returns over time; TER is the annual fee charged by funds expressed as a percentage of assets. Low costs are a strong alignment with best practices because they compound into meaningful savings. Recommendation: maintain cost vigilance when adding new exposures and prefer low‑cost vehicles where feasible while also weighing tracking error and liquidity to ensure the replacement instruments meet objectives.

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