The portfolio primarily consists of four ETFs, with a significant emphasis on the U.S. market through the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF at 58.15% and a notable allocation to international stocks via the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares at 19.57%. The inclusion of Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF and Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF adds a value investing approach to both domestic and international small-cap sectors. This blend underscores a strategy aimed at capturing broad market returns while seeking additional growth through value stocks, particularly in the small-cap space.
Historically, this portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.85%, with a maximum drawdown of -36.75%. These figures indicate a strong performance trend, albeit with significant volatility, as evidenced by the steep drawdown. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 16 days highlights the importance of staying invested through market ups and downs to capture the portfolio's full growth potential.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project a range of possible future outcomes, show a median increase of 419.0% in portfolio value. This suggests strong growth potential, though it's important to remember that such simulations are hypothetical and cannot predict future market movements with certainty. The wide range between the 5th and 67th percentiles (32.2% to 692.6%) further emphasizes the uncertainty and risk involved.
The portfolio is almost entirely invested in stocks (99%), with a minimal cash holding (1%). This asset class allocation aligns with its growth-oriented risk profile but comes with higher volatility. Stocks generally offer the potential for higher returns over the long term compared to bonds or cash, making this allocation suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon.
Sector allocations are diversified across technology, financial services, industrials, consumer cyclicals, and healthcare as the top five sectors. This diversification helps mitigate sector-specific risks, though the heavy weighting in technology and financial services could lead to increased volatility. Balancing sector exposures can reduce risk without significantly compromising potential returns.
With 72% of assets in North America and significant exposures to developed Europe and Japan, the portfolio has a strong foundation in developed markets. Emerging markets are underrepresented, which may limit exposure to high-growth regions. Diversifying more into emerging markets could offer higher growth potential, albeit with increased risk.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a balanced exposure across mega, big, medium, small, and micro-cap stocks. This spread across market caps can help smooth out volatility, as different segments may react differently to market conditions. However, the focus on smaller caps (small and micro) increases the portfolio's growth potential and risk.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current composition and performance, optimization using the Efficient Frontier could further enhance the risk-return profile. This method would identify the most efficient allocation of the current assets to achieve the best possible balance between risk and return. However, it's vital to remember that "efficiency" in this context means optimizing within the existing asset choices and allocations.
The portfolio's dividend yield stands at an average of 1.85%, with the highest yield from the Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF at 3.80%. While not the primary focus, dividends contribute to the total return, offering a source of income and potential for reinvestment. Given the growth orientation, the moderate yield is appropriate, balancing income generation with capital appreciation potential.
The overall portfolio cost, represented by the Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.09%, is impressively low, enhancing its attractiveness by ensuring more of the returns are kept by the investor. Lower costs are crucial for long-term performance, as they compound positively over time, especially important in a growth-oriented strategy.
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