Strong US growth portfolio with heavy technology tilt and concentrated high momentum exposure
Report created on Jul 14, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 65.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 25.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 10.00%
This portfolio is very focused and simple: three US equity ETFs, all in stocks, with no bonds or cash. Around two-thirds sits in a broad total US market fund, a quarter in a momentum-focused large-cap fund, and the rest in a concentrated semiconductor ETF. That structure means the core holding sets the overall tone, while the two satellites add a punch of growth and sector focus. A compact lineup like this is easy to monitor and understand. At the same time, having only three positions means each decision has a big impact on risk and return, so changes in any single ETF can noticeably move the whole portfolio.
Growth
Historically, this mix has delivered very strong results: a $1,000 investment grew to about $6,305 over roughly ten years, implying a 22.57% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). CAGR is like the average speed of a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That comfortably beat both the US market and global market benchmarks over the same period. The max drawdown of about -33% during early 2020 was sharp but similar to broad markets, and it recovered in around four months. Only 46 days made up 90% of returns, showing that a small number of very strong days drove a large part of the long-term outcome.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks forward 15 years by simulating many possible return paths based on past volatility and correlations. Think of it as “replaying history” with slight variations to see a range of plausible futures, not a prediction. The median outcome grows $1,000 to about $2,858, with a wide but reasonable band between roughly $1,851 and $4,292 for the middle half of simulations. The broad range from about $1,025 to $7,506 highlights how uncertain long-term equity investing can be. Overall, about three-quarters of the simulations end positive, but outcomes vary a lot, underlining that even strong historical returns can come with very different future paths.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is invested in equities, with 100% in stocks and no allocation to bonds or other asset classes. That creates clear exposure to the growth potential of companies, but also means there is no built-in cushion from traditionally steadier assets during market downturns. In many diversified benchmarks, bonds, cash, or other assets usually occupy a meaningful slice, which can dampen volatility. Here, the ride is more directly tied to stock market ups and downs. The growth-oriented risk classification and relatively high risk score reflect this all-equity posture, which naturally tends to experience larger swings in value over time.
Sectors
- Technology 46%
- Industrials 9%
- Financials 9%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is dominated by technology, at about 46%, with the rest spread across industrials, financials, telecom, health care, consumer areas, energy, real estate, utilities, and materials. That tech weight is meaningfully higher than broad US or global benchmarks, which tend to have a more balanced split across sectors. A heavy technology tilt often boosts growth in strong innovation cycles, but it can also amplify volatility when sentiment turns or when interest rates rise, since high-growth companies are more sensitive to changes in discount rates. The other sectors provide some diversification, but technology clearly drives a large share of behavior.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, this portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in North America, at about 98%, with tiny allocations to developed Asia and Europe. That is more home-biased than a world index, where the US is large but still shares space with Europe and Asia. A US-heavy focus has worked very well over the last decade, as US markets outperformed many international peers. The trade-off is that economic, political, and currency risks are largely tied to a single region. If US markets underperform relative to the rest of the world in a future period, this portfolio’s returns would likely reflect that concentrated exposure quite directly.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 41%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio tilts toward larger companies, with about 41% in mega-caps and 37% in large-caps, and smaller slices in mid-, small-, and micro-caps. That pattern is fairly typical for broad US equity exposure, where the biggest names dominate index weights. Larger firms often have more stable earnings, deeper resources, and more diversified operations, which can modestly steady performance compared to a strongly small-cap portfolio. However, the presence of mid- and small-caps still adds some extra growth potential and volatility. Overall, the size mix is mainstream and market-like, anchoring the portfolio in familiar, widely followed companies.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 4.51%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.13%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 4.10%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.34%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.69%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.50%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 34.67%
Looking through the ETFs, the top underlying holdings show noticeable concentration in a handful of big technology and semiconductor names. NVIDIA alone represents about 7.86% of the portfolio, with Micron, Broadcom, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, and Lam Research also significant. Several of these companies appear in more than one ETF, so their true influence is larger than any single fund suggests. Because overlap analysis only uses ETF top-10 holdings, actual overlap is likely higher. This kind of clustering creates “hidden” concentration: performance becomes especially sensitive to the fortunes of a small group of large, growth-oriented companies.
Factors
Across the main investment factors — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility — the portfolio shows broadly neutral exposures, sitting near market-like levels in each case. Factor exposure can be thought of as the mix of characteristics that drive returns, like flavor notes in a recipe. Here, there are no strong tilts toward or away from any single factor, despite the explicit momentum ETF and technology tilt. This suggests that, when everything is blended, the different holdings offset one another and end up behaving similarly to the overall market’s factor balance rather than emphasizing a specific style.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 65.00% 60.1% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 25.00% 25.1% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 10.00% 14.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to overall volatility, which can differ from its weight. The total US market ETF is 65% of the portfolio and contributes about 60% of the risk, so it behaves slightly more calmly than its size alone would suggest. The momentum ETF’s risk share roughly matches its 25% weight. The standout is the semiconductor ETF: at only 10% of the portfolio, it generates nearly 15% of total risk, with a risk-to-weight ratio of 1.49. That indicates it is substantially more volatile than the other holdings and punches above its weight in driving ups and downs.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning that, given these three holdings, its current weights already deliver strong risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio — a measure of return per unit of risk — is 0.82, just shy of the minimum-variance mix and below the maximum-Sharpe mix, which takes more risk for higher expected return. Because it lies essentially on the frontier, there is no large gap where a simple reweighting of the same ETFs could significantly improve efficiency. That alignment is a positive sign that the chosen balance uses these building blocks effectively.
Dividends
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.91%
Income from this portfolio is modest, with an overall dividend yield of about 0.91%. The broad US market ETF provides the highest yield at roughly 1.10%, while the semiconductor and momentum funds yield less. Dividend yield represents the cash paid out each year relative to the investment’s price, and can be an important component of total return for some strategies. Here, the focus is clearly on capital growth rather than income. Historically, many high-growth technology and momentum stocks reinvest more profits back into the business instead of paying large dividends, which aligns with this relatively low portfolio yield.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Costs are a notable strength. The weighted average total expense ratio (TER) is around 0.09%, driven by the very low fee on the core US market ETF and moderate fees on the momentum and semiconductor funds. TER represents the annual percentage fee charged by each fund to cover management and operating expenses. Over long periods, lower ongoing costs leave more of any returns in the investor’s hands, and even small percentage differences can compound meaningfully. In this case, the fee level is impressively low for a portfolio that includes both broad market and more specialized, higher-cost satellite ETFs.
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