Heavily concentrated crypto and broad stock market mix with efficient risk balance and low ongoing costs
Report created on May 7, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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IB iShares Bitcoin Trust
IBIT - US46438F1012 50.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00%
This portfolio is split right down the middle: about half in a bitcoin trust and half in a total US stock market ETF. That creates a very simple structure with just two holdings, one extremely volatile and one broadly diversified across thousands of stocks. A setup like this is easy to follow because each piece has a clear role: concentrated crypto exposure alongside a one-stop stock market position. The flip side is that any change in bitcoin’s price has a major impact on overall portfolio swings. The diversification score being only moderate reflects that, despite many underlying stocks, the portfolio’s top-level structure is still quite focused.
Growth
Over the measured period, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to about $1,653, giving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.36%. CAGR is like your average speed over a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This return beat both the US and global market benchmarks by around 3.4 percentage points per year. However, the portfolio also saw a max drawdown of about -32.7%, notably deeper than the benchmarks’ roughly -17% to -19% falls. A drawdown is the drop from a peak to a low; it shows how painful downturns can feel. The fact that this drawdown hasn’t yet fully recovered underlines how crypto-driven volatility can lengthen recovery times.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection models 1,000 possible 15‑year paths using historical behavior, then shows a range of outcomes. Monte Carlo basically “re-rolls the dice” many times to see different plausible futures, not just a single forecast. The median result ends around $2,069 from $1,000, but the range is very wide: roughly $280 to $17,329 between the 5th and 95th percentiles. Only about 54% of simulations end positive, despite a healthy average annualized return of 10.72%. This highlights that high average returns can coexist with a meaningful chance of ending lower than you started. All projections depend on past patterns continuing, which is never guaranteed, especially for crypto.
Asset classes
- Crypto 50%
- Stocks 50%
By asset class, the portfolio is a clean 50% crypto and 50% stocks. That split is unusual compared with broad market benchmarks, where crypto is effectively zero and stocks (often with bonds) dominate. Crypto behaves very differently from traditional assets, so mixing it half-and-half with stocks creates a distinct return pattern: sharp booms and busts from the crypto side overlaid on steadier stock market moves. This gives some diversification because crypto and stocks don’t always move together, but it also means the portfolio’s overall risk level is heavily influenced by one highly volatile asset class. The aggressive risk rating aligns with this high‑octane composition.
Sectors
- Crypto 50%
- Technology 16%
- Financials 6%
- Health Care 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Industrials 5%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking at sectors, half the portfolio is classified as “crypto,” with the rest spread across traditional sectors through the total market ETF. Technology has the largest share among stocks, followed by meaningful slices in financials, health care, consumer areas, and industrials, then smaller allocations to utilities, energy, materials, real estate, and staples. This kind of sector mix inside the equity portion looks broadly in line with a typical diversified stock market, which is a positive sign for diversification. However, the 50% allocation to crypto sits on top of that, creating a “barbell” effect: one side diversified across many sectors, the other side effectively a single concentrated theme.
Regions
- North America 50%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, the explicit data shows 50% in North America, reflecting the US-focused stock ETF. The other 50% is the bitcoin position, which isn’t tied to any particular country’s economy in the same way a company stock is. Compared with a fully global equity benchmark, this means the traditional equity part is more US‑centric, while the crypto portion is more global and currency-agnostic. That combination creates an interesting blend of country risk: substantial exposure to the US economy through stocks, paired with an asset whose price is mostly driven by global sentiment, regulation, and adoption rather than earnings in any specific region.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 20%
- Large-cap 16%
- Mid-cap 10%
- Small-cap 3%
- Micro-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Within the stock allocation, there’s a broad spread across company sizes: meaningful exposure to mega‑caps and large‑caps, plus mid‑caps, small‑caps, and even micro‑caps. Market capitalization (or “market cap”) is basically the size of a company by total equity value. Portfolios with a mix of sizes can tap into different growth and risk patterns: large companies often bring stability and liquidity, while smaller ones can be more volatile but offer higher growth potential. Here, the equity slice behaves a lot like a broad market index, which is generally considered well-diversified across size segments. The main concentration risk comes more from the 50% crypto allocation than from equity size imbalances.
True holdings
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BT Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) 50.00%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Bitcoin Trust
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.20%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 2.96%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.00%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.83%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 65.32%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
The look‑through holdings show that bitcoin exposure dominates at 50% through the trust and related structure, while the stock ETF’s top holdings are familiar mega‑cap names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom. Each of these individual companies ends up being a relatively small piece of the total portfolio, typically in the low single digits. There’s no major “hidden” overlap issue here because there are only two funds and the equity ETF is already very diversified. One thing to note is that only the top‑10 ETF holdings are captured, so the diversification inside the ETF is actually even broader than what’s shown.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposures are almost perfectly neutral across value, size, momentum, quality, and low volatility, meaning the stock portion behaves similarly to a broad market index on these dimensions. Factor exposure is like checking which “traits” a portfolio leans toward—such as cheaper stocks (value) or stable ones (low volatility). Here, there aren’t strong tilts in either direction, which keeps factor-driven surprises relatively limited on the equity side. Yield exposure is low, at 30%, reflecting a tilt away from high dividend payers. That can mean less income but a greater focus on growth-oriented companies. Overall, the factor profile is well-balanced, with the more distinctive behavior coming from the crypto allocation rather than any factor tilt.
Risk contribution
-
iShares Bitcoin Trust
Weight: 50.00% 82.6% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 17.4%
Risk contribution highlights how much each holding drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can differ a lot from weight. Although bitcoin is 50% by weight, it contributes about 82.6% of total risk; the stock ETF is also 50% by weight but only about 17.4% of risk. That means the portfolio’s overall volatility is overwhelmingly dictated by bitcoin’s price swings. The risk/weight ratio of 1.65 for the bitcoin trust shows it’s pulling more than its proportional share of risk, while the ETF’s 0.35 ratio shows the opposite. This is a classic example of how a single volatile asset can dominate portfolio behavior even when it’s not the entire allocation.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows this portfolio is on or very close to the curve of best risk‑return trade‑offs using these two holdings. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above a risk‑free rate, is 0.84 for the current mix. The model suggests that a different blend of the same two positions could reach Sharpe ratios above 1.2 with lower volatility, but overall the current allocation is described as efficient for its chosen risk level. In other words, given how much risk it’s taking, the return profile lines up well with what’s achievable using only these components, even if a less volatile mix could still deliver strong risk‑adjusted results.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.50%
Dividend income in this portfolio is modest. The total stock market ETF has a yield of about 1%, and with half the portfolio in that ETF and the other half in bitcoin (which doesn’t pay dividends), the overall portfolio yield is roughly 0.5%. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout from holdings relative to their price; it can provide a steady income stream that cushions returns when markets are flat or down. Here, most of the portfolio’s expected return is tied to price changes rather than regular cash distributions. That means total return will be more driven by market movements, especially in crypto, than by ongoing income.
Ongoing product costs
- iShares Bitcoin Trust 0.12%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
The portfolio’s costs are impressively low. The bitcoin trust has an expense ratio of 0.12%, and the total market ETF charges only 0.03%. Blended together, the overall ongoing cost is about 0.08% per year. The total expense ratio (TER) is the annual fee taken by the funds to cover management and operations, and it quietly chips away at returns over time. Being well below many actively managed funds and even cheaper than many crypto products, this cost structure supports better long‑term performance by letting more of any gains stay in the portfolio. It’s a strong foundational advantage, especially over multi‑year horizons where costs compound.
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