Concentrated United States stock portfolio with efficient risk profile and broadly balanced factor exposure
Report created on Mar 31, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Growth Investors
An investor who fits this kind of portfolio is comfortable with meaningful ups and downs in pursuit of long‑term growth. They likely have a multi‑decade horizon, such as saving for retirement or building wealth over 20+ years, and don’t need to draw heavily from the portfolio in the near term. They accept that a drop of 30–40% can happen and are willing to stay invested through those periods. A preference for simplicity, low fees, and broad exposure over stock‑picking also fits well. This type of investor is growth‑oriented, patient, and more focused on long‑run compounding than on short‑term market noise.
Positions
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VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 85.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00%
This portfolio is simple and very focused: two US stock ETFs, with about 85% in a total US market fund and 15% in a US small-cap value fund. Everything is in equities, so there’s no built‑in cushion from bonds or cash. This kind of structure is easy to understand and maintain, which is a plus. But it also means the ride will closely track how US stocks behave overall, with some extra tilt from smaller, cheaper companies. The key takeaway is that this setup makes sense for someone prioritizing growth and simplicity, but it relies heavily on stock-market resilience and a strong stomach for volatility.
Growth
Over roughly six and a half years, $1,000 grew to about $2,301, giving a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 13.71%. CAGR is like your average yearly “speed” over the full trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. The portfolio slightly trailed the broad US market by 0.36% a year but beat the global market by 2.03% annually. Max drawdown was about -36.6%, meaning the deepest peak‑to‑trough loss was more than a third. That kind of drop is normal for growth‑oriented stock portfolios but emotionally tough. Past results are no guarantee, but historically this mix has delivered strong growth in line with a US‑heavy, higher‑risk approach.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection runs 1,000 simulations of the next 10 years using patterns from past returns to generate many “what if” paths. It doesn’t predict the future; it just shows a range of possibilities based on historical behavior. In these simulations, $1,000 ends up around $1,462 at the pessimistic 5th percentile and about $6,489 at the median, with a high average annualized return of 17.31%. That upside skew reflects strong recent US equity performance, which may not repeat. The main message is that outcomes vary widely: long‑term growth potential is high, but there’s real downside risk, especially in the weaker scenarios.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. That pushes the growth engine hard but removes natural shock absorbers that can help during bear markets. In more balanced portfolios, bonds or cash can soften drawdowns and make the ride smoother, especially when stocks sell off. Here, the diversification score of 2/5 reflects that “all‑equity” profile rather than poor security selection. For someone still early or mid‑career with a long horizon, this may be acceptable. For shorter timelines or lower risk tolerance, adding other asset classes is usually the main lever to dial down volatility.
Sectors
- Technology 27%
- Financials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Industrials 11%
- Health Care 9%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 2%
Sector exposure is fairly broad, with technology the largest at 27%, then financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, health care, and telecom all contributing meaningful slices. This distribution is actually quite close to what you’d expect from a broad US market approach, which is a good sign: it avoids over‑betting on any one economic theme. A tech‑tilted profile like this can benefit during innovation and growth booms but tends to be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when investors rotate into more defensive areas. Overall, the sector mix is well‑balanced and aligns closely with broad US standards, supporting healthy diversification across industries.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely North America at 99%, effectively a pure US equity bet. That’s worked very well over the last decade, as US stocks outperformed much of the world, but it does mean everything is tied to one economy, one currency, and one policy environment. A more globally diversified equity mix would usually include substantial exposure outside North America to tap into different growth drivers and reduce reliance on US-specific outcomes. As it stands, this portfolio will rise and fall mainly with US company earnings, the US dollar, and US political and economic cycles, which magnifies regional risk.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 35%
- Large-cap 26%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 13%
- Micro-cap 9%
The portfolio spans the full market‑cap spectrum: about 35% in mega‑caps, 26% large‑caps, 17% mid‑caps, 13% small‑caps, and 9% micro‑caps. That’s a broad and healthy spread, with a slight extra emphasis on smaller companies thanks to the dedicated small‑cap value ETF. Bigger companies provide stability and tend to dominate index returns, while small and micro‑caps can be more volatile but sometimes deliver stronger long‑term growth when conditions are favorable. This mix is well‑aligned with a growth‑oriented investor who can handle more ups and downs. The key is recognizing that the small/micro slice can swing more sharply in turbulent markets.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.25%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 5.01%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.75%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.59%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.84%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.81%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.46%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.16%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 27.14%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a lot of exposure clusters in the biggest US names: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire. These giants together already make up a chunky slice of the overall portfolio even though they only reflect part of the ETFs’ full holdings. Since both funds fish in the US pond, there’s overlap in these mega‑caps, which can quietly concentrate risk at the very top of the market. Because only top‑10 ETF positions are shown, real overlap is likely higher. The practical takeaway: results will be meaningfully influenced by how a relatively small group of large US companies perform.
Factors
Factor exposure is strikingly balanced. Value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit in the neutral band, meaning the overall profile is close to a plain “market‑like” blend rather than a factor‑heavy strategy. Factor investing focuses on characteristics like cheapness (value) or trend strength (momentum) that research has tied to returns. Here, there’s no strong tilt toward or away from any of them, even with the small‑cap value sleeve, because the big broad‑market ETF dominates. This is actually a strength: the portfolio behaves much like the overall US market, avoiding the boom‑and‑bust cycles that can come from concentrated factor bets.
Risk contribution
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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 85.00% 82.2% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 17.8%
Risk contribution looks at how much each holding drives the overall volatility, which can differ from its weight. Even though the broad Vanguard fund is 85% of the portfolio, it contributes about 82% of the risk — pretty much in line with its size. The Avantis small‑cap value ETF is 15% of the weight but about 18% of the risk, so it pulls a bit more than its share, reflecting the higher volatility of small value stocks. That’s not extreme, just something to be aware of. Overall, risk is sensibly allocated, and there’s no single position wildly dominating the portfolio’s ups and downs beyond the intentional core holding.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current mix sitting right on or very near the efficient frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 versus about 0.67 for the optimal and minimum‑variance portfolios. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk — higher is better. Being this close to the frontier means the existing allocation is already very efficient given the two holdings available; there’s no major “free lunch” from simply reweighting them. Small tweaks could nudge risk‑adjusted returns slightly, but the difference is marginal. That’s a positive sign: the structure is doing what it should, and the main decisions are about risk level, not optimization.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.23%
The overall dividend yield is modest at around 1.23%, with the small‑cap value ETF yielding about 1.40% and the total market ETF at 1.20%. That’s typical for a growth‑oriented US stock portfolio where returns are expected to come more from price appreciation than from income. Dividends can be useful for investors who want regular cash flow, but for growth investors reinvesting dividends is often more powerful, as it quietly boosts compounding over time. The current yield level fits well with a long‑term, accumulation‑focused approach rather than an income‑seeking one, and it’s broadly in line with the wider US equity market.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are a real strength here. The weighted total expense ratio (TER) is only about 0.06%, driven by the ultra‑low 0.03% fee on the Vanguard total market ETF and a still‑reasonable 0.25% on the Avantis small‑cap value ETF. TER is the annual fee you pay to the fund providers, quietly deducted inside the fund. Keeping this low is one of the few things investors can fully control, and over decades it makes a noticeable difference. These costs are impressively low and clearly support better long‑term performance, especially compared with many actively managed funds that might charge several times as much without reliably adding value.
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