The portfolio's composition is heavily weighted towards US equities, represented by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, making up 46% of the portfolio. This is complemented by a 21% allocation in FNQCNX, a mutual fund with unspecified sector focus, and a notable 16% stake in Air New Zealand Limited, providing a unique tilt towards the Australasian market. The inclusion of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF and SPDR Gold Mini Shares introduces emerging market exposure and a hedge against volatility with gold, respectively. Soligenix Inc, although a minor allocation, adds speculative growth potential. This diversified mix supports the portfolio's growth profile while attempting to manage risk through geographic and asset class diversification.
With a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 26.80%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong historical performance. The maximum drawdown of -13.73% indicates resilience during market downturns, although it's important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to three suggests that the portfolio's performance is significantly influenced by a few key days, highlighting the impact of market volatility and timing on returns.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project potential future outcomes, suggest a wide range of possible performances for this portfolio. With a median projected increase of 304.5% and 647 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, there's a strong likelihood of growth. However, the 5th percentile outcome of -99.4% underscores the inherent risks, especially given the portfolio's growth orientation and exposure to volatile sectors and regions.
The portfolio's asset allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks (95%), with a small portion in gold ETFs (5%), reflecting a strong growth orientation. This high equity exposure aligns with the portfolio's risk profile and growth objectives but may increase volatility. The absence of fixed income or cash holdings limits diversification benefits and risk mitigation during market downturns, suggesting a potential area for rebalancing to smooth out returns and reduce overall portfolio risk.
Sectoral allocation reveals a broad spread across industrials, technology, financial services, and healthcare, among others. This diversification can help mitigate sector-specific risks, but the heavy weighting in industrials and technology sectors may expose the portfolio to higher volatility, given these sectors' sensitivity to economic cycles and interest rate changes. The portfolio's lack of exposure to real estate and minimal allocations in utilities and basic materials suggest potential areas for further diversification to stabilize returns.
Geographic distribution shows a strong bias towards North America and Australasia, with emerging markets represented through the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF. This geographic spread supports diversification but may expose the portfolio to region-specific risks, such as political instability in emerging markets or economic downturns in the US. The absence of developed European exposure indicates a potential gap in global diversification, which could be addressed to enhance resilience against region-specific shocks.
The market capitalization breakdown reveals a balanced exposure across mega, big, and small caps, with a notable allocation in unknown cap sizes due to the mutual fund component. This distribution suggests a blend of stability from large-cap stocks and growth potential from smaller caps. However, the significant portion in 'unknown' cap sizes indicates a need for further analysis to ensure this aligns with the investor's risk tolerance and growth objectives.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The Efficient Frontier analysis could identify opportunities to optimize the risk-return profile by adjusting asset allocations. While the current composition demonstrates strong growth potential, there may be room to enhance returns or reduce volatility through strategic reallocations. It's important to remember that optimization is based on historical data, which may not fully predict future performance but can provide a useful framework for decision-making.
The dividend yields from Air New Zealand Limited and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Min Vol Factor ETF contribute to the portfolio's total yield of 1.69%. While dividends provide a stream of income and can help cushion downturns, the portfolio's overall yield suggests a focus on capital appreciation over income generation. Investors seeking regular income may consider reallocating towards higher-yielding assets.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) of 0.05% is impressively low, enhancing its long-term return potential by minimizing cost drag. This cost efficiency is particularly noteworthy given the diversification and exposure to specialized assets like emerging markets and gold, where higher fees are common. Maintaining low costs is crucial for maximizing investment returns, especially in growth-oriented portfolios where compounding plays a significant role.
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