Concentrated US stock index portfolio with strong growth profile and efficient low cost structure
Report created on Apr 6, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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FX Fidelity 500 Index Fund
FXAIX - US3159117502 50.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00%
This portfolio is extremely simple: two broad US stock index funds, each at 50%, and nothing else. One tracks large US companies, the other covers the entire US stock market, including mid and small caps. Together, that creates a 100% stock allocation with a strong tilt to the US and to large companies. A clean structure like this is easy to understand, monitor, and maintain. The flip side is low diversification across asset classes and regions, so the ride can be bumpy when US stocks struggle. The key takeaway is that this setup works best for someone who accepts equity-style swings in exchange for long-term growth potential.
Growth
Historically, $1,000 invested here in 2016 grew to about $3,738, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.15%. CAGR is like checking your average speed over a long road trip, smoothing out all the stops and traffic jams. Over this period, the portfolio basically matched the US market and clearly beat the global market, which is encouraging for a US-focused strategy. The worst drop (max drawdown) was about -34% during early 2020, in line with broad markets, showing that this behaves like a typical growth portfolio. The main lesson: strong historical returns came with sharp but recoverable drawdowns, which are normal for 100% stock setups.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many random simulations based on past return and volatility patterns to imagine different 15‑year futures. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate timelines using historical behavior as a guide, not a promise. The median outcome takes $1,000 to around $2,703, with a wide range from roughly $959 to $7,404. The average simulated annual return is about 7.9%, with roughly a 73% chance of finishing ahead of cash. This highlights both the upside potential and the uncertainty: long-term growth is likely but not guaranteed, and results can vary wildly. It’s a reminder that even statistically “most likely” outcomes still involve real risk.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in one asset class: stocks. There’s no allocation to bonds, cash-like instruments, or alternative assets. A 100% equity mix is typical for growth-oriented investors who care more about long-term appreciation than about smoothing short-term volatility. The benefit is maximum participation in equity markets, which historically have been strong long-term compounders. The drawback is bigger drawdowns during market stress and less cushion during recessions or rate shocks. Compared with more mixed stock/bond portfolios, this is clearly higher on the risk spectrum. A sensible general principle: as investment horizons shorten or stability becomes more important, a bit of ballast from other asset classes can help.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Financials 12%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Health Care 10%
- Industrials 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Energy 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
Sector-wise, there’s a heavy tilt toward technology at about 33%, with financials, telecom, health care, and industrials making up much of the rest. This is very similar to modern US benchmark indices, which are also tech-dominated. Tech leadership has been a key driver of recent returns, so being aligned with that trend has helped performance. The flip side is that tech is sensitive to interest rates, regulation, and innovation cycles, so downturns in that area will strongly affect this portfolio. The good news is that non‑tech sectors are still meaningfully represented, offering some spread of risk across different parts of the economy, which is healthy for a simple two‑fund setup.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, this portfolio is almost entirely North America, at about 99%. That’s very close to a pure US equity bet and lighter on the rest of the world than global benchmarks, where non‑US markets make up a large share of total market value. Being US‑centric has been rewarding over the past decade, as US companies have outperformed many international markets. However, it does mean that economic, political, and currency risks are tightly linked to one region. A broad principle is that adding more geographic spread can reduce the chance that one country’s problems dominate outcomes, but at the cost of maybe lagging if that country (here, the US) continues to lead.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 43%
- Large-cap 33%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market cap, the portfolio leans heavily toward mega- and large-cap companies, which together make up around 76%. Mid caps have a solid presence, while small and micro caps together are a relatively small slice. This is very typical of market-weighted US index funds, where the biggest companies naturally dominate. Larger firms tend to be more stable, with deeper resources and diversified businesses, so they often show lower volatility than tiny companies. On the other hand, smaller stocks can sometimes deliver higher long-term returns, but with rougher rides. This balance gives a mostly “blue-chip” feel with a modest growth kicker from smaller names, a reasonable mix for a core equity holding.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.09%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 2.95%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.21%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.37%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.14%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.08%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.07%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.86%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.69%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 15.96%
Looking through to the underlying holdings, the biggest exposures are familiar US giants like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. Several of these names appear in both funds, which creates “hidden” concentration even though you only see two tickers. Since only top-10 ETF holdings are captured, actual overlap is likely higher across the full portfolios. This kind of duplication is common with broad US index funds and isn’t automatically a problem, but it does mean big tech and mega-caps have an outsized influence on performance. The practical takeaway is that big US growth names heavily shape how this portfolio behaves day to day.
Factors
Factor exposure here is very close to market‑like across the board: value, size, momentum, quality, and low volatility all sit in the neutral range. Factor investing is about leaning into specific traits that research has linked to returns, like cheapness (value) or strong recent performance (momentum). A neutral profile basically means you’re just holding the broad market mix of these characteristics rather than making any big bets. The only slight standout is a low exposure to yield, which isn’t surprising given the growthy US focus. That implies less emphasis on high-dividend payers and more on companies that reinvest earnings. Overall, this is a well‑balanced, style‑agnostic factor footprint.
Risk contribution
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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 50.4% -
Fidelity 500 Index Fund
Weight: 50.00% 49.7%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s total ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Here it’s very straightforward: each fund is 50% of the capital and contributes almost exactly 50% of the risk. That tells you there’s no hidden time bomb where a small position dominates volatility. It also reflects how similarly these two funds behave, as both track broad US equities. When risk lines up this neatly with weights, rebalancing mostly becomes a matter of keeping the 50/50 split rather than worrying about one fund quietly taking over the portfolio’s behavior. It’s a clean, predictable risk structure.
Redundant positions
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High correlationVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesFidelity 500 Index Fund
The two funds are highly correlated, meaning they tend to move almost identically day to day. Correlation is a measure of how assets move together; if they’re very high, both usually rise and fall at the same time. That’s expected here, since one fund tracks the S&P 500 and the other covers the broader US market, which is still dominated by those same big companies. The benefit is simplicity and clarity: you basically know you have a pure US stock position. The downside is that, within this portfolio alone, you’re not getting much “zig when the other zags” diversification. Big US market swings will fully show up in your results.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio sits right on or very near the efficient frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.6. The Sharpe ratio compares excess return to volatility, like asking how much “reward” you’re getting for each unit of “bumpiness.” The optimal and minimum‑variance mixes of these same two funds have slightly higher Sharpe ratios around 0.78, but with almost identical risk and return numbers. That tiny difference suggests the existing 50/50 allocation is already highly efficient for its risk level. In practice, there’s not much to be gained from fancy reweighting here; the simple, balanced split is doing its job well.
Dividends
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 0.90%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.05%
The blended dividend yield is around 1.05%, with the two funds yielding roughly 0.9% and 1.2%. Dividend yield is the cash income paid out each year as a percentage of what you’ve invested, like interest on a savings account but not guaranteed. In a growth‑oriented US stock portfolio, a modest yield like this is pretty normal because many companies reinvest profits instead of paying them out. Over time, reinvested dividends can still be a meaningful part of total return, even if the starting yield looks small. The main story here is that this setup is tilted more toward capital appreciation than toward generating ongoing income.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 0.02%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.02%
Costs are impressively low. The total expense ratio (TER) across the two funds averages about 0.02% per year, which is close to the floor for mainstream index products. TER is the annual fee charged by the fund, silently deducted from returns, like a tiny management toll. Keeping this toll minimal is one of the most reliable ways to improve long‑term results because every fraction of a percent compounds over decades. Compared with typical active funds charging 0.5–1% or more, this cost structure is a real strength. It means more of the portfolio’s gross market return actually ends up in your pocket, supporting better outcomes without taking additional risk.
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